Why do NFL teams run so often? (no, seriously: why?)
Thanks to Yurko, Ventura, and Horowitz (2018), we now have reliable estimates for the expected points added (EPA) and win probability added (WPA) of every NFL play from 2009 through 2017. A consistent pattern that has emerged from this data is that on average, rushing lowers a team’s chance of scoring (as measured by EPA) and winning (as measured by WPA). And yet, on 1st and 10, NFL teams ran the ball 53 percent of the time in 2017. In order for rushing so frequently to…