2015 Week 2 Quarterbacks

Through two weeks of NFL action, we still can’t really know who anyone is on the field just yet. However, it’s still fun to make insane judgments based on small sample sizes. Let’s look at a small sample size of numbers and see what nonsense we can come up with.

Raw Stats

This table is sorted alphabetically, but you can sort to your liking. You probably know how to read it, so I won’t patronize you.

Aaron RodgersGNB2533249202151106230011-1
Alex SmithKC1625191024219031500200
Andrew LuckIND2137250130011042401200
Andy DaltonCIN16262143000805100002-2
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT212736930001401-10001-1
Blake BortlesJAX183327320001102270011-1
Brandon WeedenDAL7773100030370012-2
Cam NewtonCAR18371952121713010761061-1
Carson PalmerARI172418541001202-20002-2
Colin KaepernickSF33463352053718085101300
Derek CarrOAK304635131101702230011-1
Drew BreesNOR2438255114361101-10201-1
Eli ManningNYG2740292202112022302100
Jameis WinstonTB1421207103137062311300
Jay CutlerCHI8912011003032401200
Jimmy ClausenCHI142312101215402-501000
Joe FlaccoBAL324538421001702200100
Johnny ManzielCLE8151722021450410202-3
Kirk CousinsWAS2327203102121000000000
Marcus MariotaTEN21372522073214031903200
Matt RyanATL3046363102171901-10001-1
Matthew StaffordDET3253286211117042000100
Michael VickPIT0000000003-30003-3
Nick FolesSTL17321501014601101000
Peyton ManningDEN2645256313181500000000
Philip RiversSD2127241214181201501000
Russell WilsonSEA19302062121121107800500
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ223424421111301600000
Ryan MallettHOU275824411151101610100
Ryan TannehillMIA30443592021515131701000
Sam BradfordPHI233722412151102901000
Teddy BridgewaterMIN14181531012706211031-2
Tom BradyNE3859466302152103-40103-4
Tony RomoDAL1827195003189011201100
Tyrod TaylorBUF23302423385311054312300

This week, only Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill spiked the ball to stop the clock. You’ll see how that impacts their rate stats in the table below, as the numbers will look different from ones on other databases.

My QB kneels database goes back to 2002. Since then, no quarterback has lost more yards to kneels than Tom Brady. Including the six yards he has already lost this year, he has seen official record keeping senselessly take 203 yards from his rushing totals because he was busy winning football games and kneeling out the clock.

Rate Stats

This table presents basic rate stats and is sorted by adjusted net yards per pass attempt (but really, per dropback). Remember that these rate stats are calculated after spikes have been removed from the denominator. Most of these should look familiar, so I’ll highlight a few that may not. “Y/C” is yards per completion, which can demonstrate a QB’s style of play. “C/DB” and “NY/A” are completion rate and yards per attempt measure per dropback instead of per pass attempt. This is an effort to penalize those QBs who inflate their passing stats by taking too many sacks. “PER” is passing equivalency rating, which you can read about here.

PlayerTmReal C%Real Y/AReal TD%Real Int%Real Sk%Y/CC/DBNY/AReal NFL RatePERAY/AANY/A
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT77.78%13.6711.11%0.00%0.00%17.677.78%13.67155.79144.9815.8915.89
Johnny ManzielCLE53.33%11.4713.33%0.00%11.76%21.547.06%9.29133.89120.5014.1311.65
Jay CutlerCHI88.89%13.3311.11%11.11%0.00%15.088.89%13.33116.20114.6610.5610.56
Andy DaltonCIN61.54%8.2311.54%0.00%0.00%13.461.54%8.23126.12113.8510.5410.54
Brandon WeedenDAL100.00%10.430.00%0.00%0.00%10.4100.00%10.43110.12109.2110.4310.43
Blake BortlesJAX54.55%8.276.06%0.00%0.00%15.254.55%8.27102.2189.609.489.48
Carson PalmerARI70.83%7.7116.67%4.17%0.00%10.970.83%7.71115.4579.849.179.17
Teddy BridgewaterMIN77.78%8.505.56%0.00%5.26%10.973.68%7.95120.60108.169.619.00
Jameis WinstonTB66.67%9.864.76%0.00%12.50%14.858.33%8.08114.58101.8110.818.92
Ryan TannehillMIA69.77%8.354.65%0.00%4.44%12.066.67%7.64110.5197.739.288.53
Joe FlaccoBAL71.11%8.534.44%2.22%0.00%12.071.11%8.53102.4577.748.428.42
Tom BradyNE64.41%7.905.08%0.00%3.28%12.362.30%7.39105.6192.888.928.38
Eli ManningNYG67.50%7.305.00%0.00%4.76%10.864.29%6.93105.4292.678.307.88
Aaron RodgersGNB75.76%7.556.06%0.00%5.71%10.071.43%6.69116.86104.258.767.83
Derek CarrOAK65.22%7.636.52%2.17%2.13%11.763.83%7.47100.9176.727.967.79
Matt RyanATL65.22%7.892.17%0.00%4.17%12.162.50%7.2196.5683.458.337.63
Kirk CousinsWAS85.19%7.523.70%0.00%6.90%8.879.31%6.59110.34103.838.267.28
Philip RiversSD77.78%8.937.41%3.70%12.90%11.567.74%7.19113.1281.088.747.03
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ64.71%7.185.88%2.94%2.86%11.162.86%6.9493.2664.887.036.80
Colin KaepernickSF71.74%7.284.35%0.00%9.80%10.264.71%5.84106.7093.888.156.63
Russell WilsonSEA65.52%7.106.90%3.45%6.45%10.861.29%6.6194.9063.936.936.45
Marcus MariotaTEN56.76%6.815.41%0.00%15.91%12.047.73%5.0095.7883.097.895.91
Tony RomoDAL66.67%7.220.00%0.00%10.00%10.860.00%5.9087.7374.347.225.90
Peyton ManningDEN57.78%5.696.67%2.22%6.25%9.854.17%4.9686.9062.476.025.27
Matthew StaffordDET60.38%5.403.77%1.89%1.85%8.959.26%5.2879.6056.595.305.19
Nick FolesSTL53.13%4.693.13%0.00%3.03%8.851.52%4.4276.3063.325.315.03
Drew BreesNOR63.16%6.712.63%2.63%9.52%10.657.14%5.2180.4853.346.054.62
Cam NewtonCAR48.65%5.275.41%2.70%5.13%10.846.15%4.5671.3444.175.144.44
Sam BradfordPHI62.16%6.052.70%5.41%2.63%9.760.53%5.7665.6035.504.163.92
Andrew LuckIND56.76%6.762.70%8.11%0.00%11.956.76%6.7652.7633.923.653.65
Ryan MallettHOU46.55%4.211.72%1.72%1.69%9.045.76%4.0556.9734.573.783.63
Tyrod TaylorBUF76.67%8.0710.00%10.00%21.05%10.560.53%4.9793.3381.245.573.00
Alex SmithKC64.00%7.640.00%8.00%13.79%11.955.17%5.8653.9234.284.042.76
Jimmy ClausenCHI60.87%5.260.00%4.35%8.00%8.656.00%4.2456.6121.753.302.44

If something goes wrong and Tony Romo can’t make it back this season, fear not: Brandon Weeden is on pace for 392/392, 4089 yards, 56 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Relax, guys.

Philip Rivers and Tyrod Taylor had impressive completion rates, with both going over the 75% mark. However, once you add sacks to the denominator, their numbers drop substantially. Taylor’s completion rate drops 16.1%, while Rivers’s drops 10.0%. Rivers has proven he can handle a terrible offensive line, but Taylor must show he can avoid killing drives with needless sacks.

When Rex Ryan’s dad coached the Eagles in 1986, young, athletic quarterback Randall Cunningham was sacked on nearly 26% of his dropbacks. On Sunday, Rex’s young, athletic quarterback was sacked on 21% of his dropbacks. Some family traditions are best done away with.

Blake Bortles and Derek Carr led some fine game winning drives this week, but I’m still not sold on either player. I am confident, however, that they are both probably better than Ryan Mallett. If you’re going to complete less than half of your passes, at least be exciting like Tim Tebow.

Adjusted Stats

I think I’ll stop calling these advanced stats and just call them adjusted stats. After all, the whole point of what I’m trying to do is make numbers more accessible. This table represents a holistic look at QB statlines and is sorted by marginal total adjusted yards. Read it thus: Ben Roethlisberger turned 27 plays into 528 total adjusted yards, good for 19.56 TAY/P. His TAY/P was 10.91 better than average, giving him (27 * 10.91 =) 295 marginal adjusted yards. His Winnersauce rating was a league high 194.3.

Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2752819.5610.91295194.3
Blake BortlesJAX3443112.684.03137142.7
Tom BradyNE6164810.621.98121127.3
Joe FlaccoBAL4752511.172.52119106.4
Matt RyanATL4852811.002.35113130.2
Derek CarrOAK4852510.942.29110129.7
Carson PalmerARI2429212.173.5284138.9
Andy DaltonCIN2933111.412.7780133.3
Teddy BridgewaterMIN2428611.923.2778137.0
Ryan TannehillMIA4849310.271.627899.7
Russell WilsonSEA4141310.071.435998.2
Brandon WeedenDAL812916.137.4760168.6
Jameis WinstonTB3030410.131.4945123.7
Aaron RodgersGNB403889.701.0542120.4
Kirk CousinsWAS2929210.071.4241123.2
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ363439.530.8832119.1
Jay CutlerCHI1213010.832.1926103.9
Colin KaepernickSF595359.070.422590.7
Eli ManningNYG444039.160.512391.3
Johnny ManzielCLE191799.420.7715118.3
Philip RiversSD322889.000.351190.2
Cam NewtonCAR484148.63-0.02-1112.3
Tony RomoDAL312548.19-0.45-14109.1
Peyton ManningDEN483617.52-1.13-54104.1
Matthew StaffordDET584447.66-0.99-5780.1
Marcus MariotaTEN473307.02-1.62-7675.3
Alex SmithKC321946.06-2.58-8368.1
Nick FolesSTL341875.50-3.15-10763.9
Andrew LuckIND412425.90-2.74-11266.9
Sam BradfordPHI402235.58-3.07-12364.5
Drew BreesNOR422345.57-3.07-12964.4
Tyrod TaylorBUF432175.05-3.60-15560.5
Jimmy ClausenCHI27672.48-6.16-16641.3
Ryan MallettHOU603305.50-3.15-18963.9

There was a time, early in Carson Palmer‘s career, when it looked like he may join Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the league’s premier quarterbacks. It’s been a long, strange trip since then, but he has arguable outplayed them both so far this season (well, he has definitely outplayed Manning).

Tom Brady has been an interesting case this season. His dominance is, as usual, entirely mental. He isn’t making difficult throws, and he doesn’t have to. He and his troupe of white receivers of various sizes are a well-oiled machine. Dion Lewis‘s (a non-white guy) receiving out of the backfield has added yet another element of hyper-efficient horror.

Ben Roethlisberger didn’t need too many plays to make an impact. His mark of 19.56 TAY/P was absurd; in fact, his 10.91 marginal TAY/P would itself rank tenth this week. His 295 marginal adjusted yards have lifted him into the lead early in the season.

Colin Kaepernick is an example of why it is important to actually watch games instead of just looking at numbers. Kaepernick’s boxscore was solid, with him racking up the second highest volume of any QB. However, most of his production came in garbage time with little hope of even feigning a comeback.