Career Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

Yesterday, I discussed two different ways to use Total Adjusted Yards and its derivatives to calculate career value above replacement for each season. The explanation of the methodology is somewhat tedious, so I won’t besiege your senses with it again today. If you’re interested, the full breakdown is available in yesterday’s linked post. Today, I’m going to use the same model to find career value above replacement. There are two ways to do this: I can find each player’s weighted value per play and multiply…

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Single Season Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

Last week, I unveiled the single season Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAY/P) ratings for every qualifying quarterback season since 1992.1 In that post, I covered production and total value relative to league average. Today, I want to add a new wrinkle and look at value above replacement level. Replacement level is a well established concept in baseball, but it isn’t a very popular notion in football. Football Outsiders has done the most thorough and well-publicized work on the subject that I am…

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Career NTAYP Since 1992

Yesterday, I presented the Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and the newer version, NTAYP) metrics for every qualifying quarterback season since 1992. Today, I’m going to take a look at the career numbers. Keep in mind that, since this study only goes back to 1992, it ignores the first sixty years of the NFL stat-keeping era, focusing instead on the past quarter century.1 From a practical standpoint, this means we can’t look at legends like Sammy Baugh, Johnny Unitas, or Roger Staubach. It also means…

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New Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Since 1992

If you’re a semi-regular reader of the site, or if you follow me on Twitter, you’re probably at least somewhat familiar with Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). TAY/P isn’t as advanced as popular metrics like DVOA and ESPN’s Total QBR, but it is my favorite stat to use because it is transparent, easy to calculate on your own, and backed up by research.1 It also compares favorably with the more popular, propriety stats.2 Not wanting to give too much credit to quarterbacks for the performance…

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Adjusted Drive Yards

For some time, I have wanted to create a new metric that used elements from Total Adjusted Yards (TAY) in order to quantify a team’s production on each drive. Past work from both Chase Stuart and Brian Burke has given us insight into the value of touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, and first downs, translated into yards. This work has been fundamental in the development of stats like Adjusted net Yards per Attempt, Adjusted Rushing Yards, Adjusted Catch Yards, and TAY. Those metrics have given us valuable…

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History of the Career Receptions Record

The history of the NFL’s career receptions record is an interesting one. Given that the original record-holders played a large chunk of their careers before the league kept official statistics, and given that the early days of the NFL featured very little passing, the first three men to wear the crown put up numbers that appear paltry to the modern audience. As the league evolved, the record began changing hands between more accomplished receivers – legends of the game. Some of these men revolutionized the…

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Adjusted Rushing Yards Since 1991

Earlier this week, I looked at Adjusted Catch Yards from the last quarter century. Today, I’ve turned my focus to the players who got it done on the ground. I’ll be using data from the last 25 years of NFL history to find Adjusted Rushing Yards for single seasons and whole careers. The formula for Adjusted Rushing Yards is simple: ARY = Yards + 11*Touchdowns + 9*First Downs – 25*Fumbles1 To find Marginal ARY/A, I simply find the ARY/A of the rest of the rushers in…

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Adjusted Catch Yards Since 1991

Today I’m going to look at receivers since 1991 as ranked by Adjusted Catch Yards (ACY). I’m using 1991 as my cutoff because I don’t have data on receiving first downs prior to that, and since first downs are a huge part of the formula, it seems unwise to go past that cutoff.1 The formula for ACY is: ACY = Receiving Yards + 11*Receiving Touchdowns + 9*Receiving First Downs – 25*Receiving Fumbles2 I will also include small modifications to adjust for era. Since we are only…

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History of the Career Passing Yards Record

You may have heard that former Colts and Broncos great Peyton Manning has announced his retirement. He left the game as the career leader in touchdown passes and yards (on top of other, less notable records). He has been lauded by an adoring media and legions of fans, and deservedly so. However, with all the attention given to modern players, we often fail to properly remember former greats – legends of the game who paved the way for the sports celebrities of today. More than relics…

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Strength of Schedule Adjusted TAY/P

Last week, I posted the final team strength stats for the 2015 season. I concluded the article with my homegrown TAY/P stat, but having already included four other tables with commentary, I didn’t think taking the time to adjust for opponents was a wise move. I want to take a little more space to explain where the numbers come from, so I am giving strength of schedule adjusted TAY/P its own post. First, I’ll explain what TAY/P is, for the uninitiated. It stands for Total…

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