Adjusted Drive Yards

For some time, I have wanted to create a new metric that used elements from Total Adjusted Yards (TAY) in order to quantify a team’s production on each drive. Past work from both Chase Stuart and Brian Burke has given us insight into the value of touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, and first downs, translated into yards. This work has been fundamental in the development of stats like Adjusted net Yards per Attempt, Adjusted Rushing Yards, Adjusted Catch Yards, and TAY. Those metrics have given us valuable…

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History of the Career Receptions Record

The history of the NFL’s career receptions record is an interesting one. Given that the original record-holders played a large chunk of their careers before the league kept official statistics, and given that the early days of the NFL featured very little passing, the first three men to wear the crown put up numbers that appear paltry to the modern audience. As the league evolved, the record began changing hands between more accomplished receivers – legends of the game. Some of these men revolutionized the…

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Adjusted Rushing Yards Since 1991

Earlier this week, I looked at Adjusted Catch Yards from the last quarter century. Today, I’ve turned my focus to the players who got it done on the ground. I’ll be using data from the last 25 years of NFL history to find Adjusted Rushing Yards for single seasons and whole careers. The formula for Adjusted Rushing Yards is simple: ARY = Yards + 11*Touchdowns + 9*First Downs – 25*Fumbles1 To find Marginal ARY/A, I simply find the ARY/A of the rest of the rushers in…

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Adjusted Catch Yards Since 1991

Today I’m going to look at receivers since 1991 as ranked by Adjusted Catch Yards (ACY). I’m using 1991 as my cutoff because I don’t have data on receiving first downs prior to that, and since first downs are a huge part of the formula, it seems unwise to go past that cutoff.1 The formula for ACY is: ACY = Receiving Yards + 11*Receiving Touchdowns + 9*Receiving First Downs – 25*Receiving Fumbles2 I will also include small modifications to adjust for era. Since we are only…

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History of the Career Passing Yards Record

You may have heard that former Colts and Broncos great Peyton Manning has announced his retirement. He left the game as the career leader in touchdown passes and yards (on top of other, less notable records). He has been lauded by an adoring media and legions of fans, and deservedly so. However, with all the attention given to modern players, we often fail to properly remember former greats – legends of the game who paved the way for the sports celebrities of today. More than relics…

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Strength of Schedule Adjusted TAY/P

Last week, I posted the final team strength stats for the 2015 season. I concluded the article with my homegrown TAY/P stat, but having already included four other tables with commentary, I didn’t think taking the time to adjust for opponents was a wise move. I want to take a little more space to explain where the numbers come from, so I am giving strength of schedule adjusted TAY/P its own post. First, I’ll explain what TAY/P is, for the uninitiated. It stands for Total…

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2015 Final Team Strength Stats

The 2015 NFL season ended with an upset that surprised almost everyone. The Broncos, whose mighty defense carried the mostly inept offense to victory over the Led by Von Miller and a historically great defense, the 14-4 Denver Broncos upset the 17-1 Carolina Panthers (favored by 5.5 points).1 The Panthers were superior by every traditional and advanced measure of team strength. Sure, the Broncos had a defense for the ages, but the Panthers had a stout defense of their own, coupled with the league’s top…

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Thoughts After Week 10 2015

With 57% of the season in the rear view mirror, here are a few thoughts… A few weeks ago, I went on the Numbers Game Podcast with Matthew Freedman and Kevin Cole. When asked about mid-season MVPs, I named Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, and Aaron Rodgers as prime candidates (with a hat tip to Ben Roethlisberger, who has played incredibly when healthy-ish). Well, just a few short weeks later and it is now a two man contest. Sure, Cam Newton manufactures some incredible…

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Thoughts After Week 8 2015

I haven’t had time to do much more than update stats recently, so I figured I’d write a little something to prove I’m still alive. Here are some thoughts and statistical curiosities so far this season. Tom Brady is the clear frontrunner for MVP. I don’t think I am going out on a limb when I say that; I’m not even climbing the tree. He’s leading the best team in the league, and he’s doing it with a great set of box scores; voters love…

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