Regular Season QBGOAT I: Single Season Stats

GOAT, Quarterbacks May 12, 2016 Bryan Frye 3 Comments

To kick off the series on the greatest regular season quarterbacks of all time, I’ll start with the single season stats highlighting the most productive quarterback campaigns in history. In this post, we’re just going to look at the stats as they are; later on, we’ll deal with the expanded NFL schedule and the evolving nature of the position itself. As usual, I am going to measure quarterback output by efficiency (Total Adjusted Yards per Play) and effectiveness (marginal Total Adjusted Yards over average). I…

Raw QB Stats Since 1932

Quarterbacks May 10, 2016 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

As a followup to yesterday’s post, this is another data dump of expository information. Today’s post contains all the information you need for each individual quarterback in order to work with the numbers yourself: raw QB stats for each individual player season and player career since 1932. The tables provide total yards (pass yards + rush yards – sack yards), total touchdowns (pass + rush touchdowns), interceptions, fumbles, and total plays (passes + sacks + rushes). They also have those stats converted to Total Adjusted…

Historical Total Adjusted Yards Averages

Offense, Quarterbacks May 9, 2016 Bryan Frye 2 Comments

In preparation for my series on the statistical production of every quarterback since 1932, I thought it would be helpful to publish today’s post as a reference for what will follow. The three tables below contain the historical Total Adjusted Yards averages for every season in NFL, AFL, and AAFC history (98 league seasons in all).1 Normally, I measure value based on TAY/P relative to league average, multiplied by total plays. However, for this series I decided to measure performance versus a three year average…

Adjusted Scrimmage Yards

Offense May 6, 2016 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

Adjusted Scrimmage Yards is not a new concept at The GridFe; I used the metric last season to measure offensive output from skill players. However, I have never given the metric its own post, so I decided to change that. Today, I want to take a look at the top single seasons and total careers, as measured by Adjusted Scrimmage Yards, since 1992. For those unfamiliar with the metric, the formula is: Rushing and Receiving Yards + Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns*11 + Rushing and Receiving First…

History of the Career Rushing Touchdowns Record

History, Running Backs May 2, 2016 Bryan Frye 1 Comment

As a lover of football history, I enjoy writing about the evolution of the game and examining statistical achievements from a historical perspective. I’m also fond of looking at the progression of career records, as doing so can often give us a glimpse into the progression of the game itself. I’ve previously written about the history of the passing touchdowns, passing yards, and receptions records. Today, I’ll focus on the storied history of the carer rushing touchdowns record. The first ever Football Sunday in league…

Yards From Scrimmage Monsters

GOAT, Offense April 18, 2016 Bryan Frye 10 Comments

Today I want to take a look at skill player production as measured by yards from scrimmage. I will look at top performers in standard yards from scrimmage, yards from scrimmage prorated to a 16 game schedule, and yards from scrimmage over multiple baselines. This isn’t meant to be a list of the greatest offensive players in history, but it will certainly shed some light on players who may have been underrated in the eyes of the masses. The methodology for these metrics is very…

Career Total Adjusted Yards per Play Index Scores

Quarterbacks April 14, 2016 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

Earlier this week, we looked at the top single quarterback seasons as measured by Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAY/P) Index Scores.1 Today, we’ll take it a step further and look at career Total Adjusted Yards per Play Index Scores. For a full explanation of how I calculated the Index Scores, check out the previous article. The method I used to arrive at career numbers was simple and straightforward: Find the Index Scores for each season Multiply each quarterback’s season score by his…

Single Season Total Adjusted Yards per Play Index Scores

Quarterbacks April 12, 2016 Bryan Frye 3 Comments

I recently posted the top single seasons in Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAYP) marginal value and value above replacement. In my original article on marginal value, I found value by finding a quarterback’s rate stat relative to league average and multiplying that by his total number of plays. This time around, I was to account for the variance of the era in which a quarterback played. To do this, I’m going to take a page from Pro Football Reference and use Index…

Career Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

Quarterbacks April 6, 2016 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

Yesterday, I discussed two different ways to use Total Adjusted Yards and its derivatives to calculate career value above replacement for each season. The explanation of the methodology is somewhat tedious, so I won’t besiege your senses with it again today. If you’re interested, the full breakdown is available in yesterday’s linked post. Today, I’m going to use the same model to find career value above replacement. There are two ways to do this: I can find each player’s weighted value per play and multiply…

Single Season Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

Quarterbacks April 5, 2016 Bryan Frye 3 Comments

Last week, I unveiled the single season Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAY/P) ratings for every qualifying quarterback season since 1992.1 In that post, I covered production and total value relative to league average. Today, I want to add a new wrinkle and look at value above replacement level. Replacement level is a well established concept in baseball, but it isn’t a very popular notion in football. Football Outsiders has done the most thorough and well-publicized work on the subject that I am…