Category Archives: Uncategorized

2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 9

Below are the SRS ratings through Week 9; as noted last week, the offense and defense ratings do not include “non-offense” scores. This ranking is telling us that on a neutral field, the spread for a Chiefs/Bills matchup would be Chiefs -26. That’s an insane spread, but pretty reasonable considering what our eyeballs tell us about these two teams. Is Chicago really a better team (albeit only slightly) than New England? Probably not. This rating (and PFR’s) includes all games and gives all games equal…

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2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 8

If you like using points per game as a reference for team strength (SOS), it makes sense to adjust for strength of opponent. Pro Football Reference has been doing this for years with their Simple Ranking System; in fact, the term “SRS” is now commonly used to refer to a team’s point differential that has been adjusted for SOS. PFR goes even further by giving us offensive and defensive ratings – OSRS and DSRS – which are pretty handy for seeing where a team’s strength…

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2017 WEEK 17 PICKS

Followed up my horrible 6-10 week by going 8-8 in Week 16, and that’s including the back-door cover Christmas gift in the Eagles-Raiders game. So I’m happy that I was able to at least “improve” on my crappy Week 15, but here’s what burns me up (and I KNEW this would happen): I tweaked The Machine by giving certain playoff-hopeful teams a single point to address the fact that they “had to win”, and I lost two of the three games where this adjustment flipped my…

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2017 WEEK 16 PICKS

Horrible, horrible week my friends. Only 6 correct picks, and I think I was lucky to get even that. My spreads were so close to the ESPN Pigskin Pick’Em (PP) spreads that had I nudged 4 of my games by even 1 point, I would have caught those games: Game My Spread ESPN Spread Diff BAL@CLE +7 +7.5 0.5 NYJ@NOR -16 -15.5 0.5 TEN@SFO -1 -1.5 0.5 NWE@PIT +2 +2.5 0.5 I say this not to complain about the losses (although obviously I’m not happy),…

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2017 WEEK 15 PICKS

I continue my slow and steady descent into mediocrity: I went 8-8 for the second week in a row. Somewhat symbolic of this “balanced approach” to picking games, is the fact that while I was a victim of a bad beat with the CLE/GNB game – the Hundley-to-Adams 25-yard touchdown in OT blew my Browns to cover pick – I got lucky when Bills RB LeSean McCoy ran in for a score in OT against the Colts, giving me the Bills cover. That being said,…

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2017 WEEK 14 PICKS, RANKINGS

Another mediocre week, 8 correct picks against the spread. I should be doing better at this point in the season, because – theoretically – I now have enough data to accurately gauge team strengths. While my picks haven’t taken a nose dive, I’m certainly struggling. No sense going back and complaining about lost games, but I do have one gripe: I did pretty well with my Super Hot Picks, getting 2 out of 3 correct, but I could have (and should have) gone 3-0 if…

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2017 WEEK 12 PICKS

After four weeks of mediocrity, I finally had a good week: 10 correct picks and I hit 2 of my 3 Super Hot Sizzling Picks. What does this mean moving forward? Nothing really. I could have easily lost a few games, most notably, the Browns/Jaguars game. I took Jacksonville, favored by 7.5, and it didn’t look good towards the end – the Browns had the ball with 1:24 left, down by 6 on their own 20. What should have happened is maybe a stalled drive…

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Beast of Burden: Denver’s Defense

For much of Peyton Manning‘s incredible career, his offenses have been tasked with carrying the team to victory. Depending on your definition of success, those offenses were either very successful, pretty successful, or frustratingly disappointing.1 The problem with being too reliant on one group is that, if that group struggles, the team typically cannot find a way to overcome the adversity. Smaller players built to rush the passer while playing with double-digit leads aren’t usually quite as effective at stopping opponents from running the ball.…

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Hello world…

Welcome to GridFe, where we’ll seek to explore all things gridiron. I am the former owner of the now-defunct semi-daily blog NFLsGreatest.co.nf. I retired the site to devote more time to family and less to football, but I couldn’t shake my desire to write about the sport I love. You may have read some of my posts at Football Perspective. If you’re familiar with the format, I’m hoping for something similar – a blog where we can discuss stats, players, coaches, techniques, or just bizarre…

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