Category Archives: Team Strength

2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 9

Below are the SRS ratings through Week 9; as noted last week, the offense and defense ratings do not include “non-offense” scores. This ranking is telling us that on a neutral field, the spread for a Chiefs/Bills matchup would be Chiefs -26. That’s an insane spread, but pretty reasonable considering what our eyeballs tell us about these two teams. Is Chicago really a better team (albeit only slightly) than New England? Probably not. This rating (and PFR’s) includes all games and gives all games equal…

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2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 8

If you like using points per game as a reference for team strength (SOS), it makes sense to adjust for strength of opponent. Pro Football Reference has been doing this for years with their Simple Ranking System; in fact, the term “SRS” is now commonly used to refer to a team’s point differential that has been adjusted for SOS. PFR goes even further by giving us offensive and defensive ratings – OSRS and DSRS – which are pretty handy for seeing where a team’s strength…

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Adjusted Drive Yards

For some time, I have wanted to create a new metric that used elements from Total Adjusted Yards (TAY) in order to quantify a team’s production on each drive. Past work from both Chase Stuart and Brian Burke has given us insight into the value of touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, and first downs, translated into yards. This work has been fundamental in the development of stats like Adjusted net Yards per Attempt, Adjusted Rushing Yards, Adjusted Catch Yards, and TAY. Those metrics have given us valuable…

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Strength of Schedule Adjusted TAY/P

Last week, I posted the final team strength stats for the 2015 season. I concluded the article with my homegrown TAY/P stat, but having already included four other tables with commentary, I didn’t think taking the time to adjust for opponents was a wise move. I want to take a little more space to explain where the numbers come from, so I am giving strength of schedule adjusted TAY/P its own post. First, I’ll explain what TAY/P is, for the uninitiated. It stands for Total…

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2015 Final Team Strength Stats

The 2015 NFL season ended with an upset that surprised almost everyone. The Broncos, whose mighty defense carried the mostly inept offense to victory over the Led by Von Miller and a historically great defense, the 14-4 Denver Broncos upset the 17-1 Carolina Panthers (favored by 5.5 points).1 The Panthers were superior by every traditional and advanced measure of team strength. Sure, the Broncos had a defense for the ages, but the Panthers had a stout defense of their own, coupled with the league’s top…

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