This all got started by an interesting comment by skepticismissurvival on the NFL subreddit, who made an observation that, like most good observations, seems obvious in hindsight: the pressure rate allowed by an offensive line is not a great measure of pass protection because it depends in part on how long their QB holds the ball. There is wide variation in release time, which varied from Alex Smith at 2.38 seconds to Tyrod Taylor at 3.12 seconds in 2016. We should not expect the Chiefs and…

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Arguing on the internet A common argument on the internet (e.g. Twitter, where I spent too much time) is that the efficiency of players like Prescott and Wilson in their rookie seasons (and subsequent seasons, for Wilson) was not impressive because they were not asked to throw the ball as much. Once they are asked to throw more often, the argument goes, we can expect their efficiency to fall off. Here is one of many, many examples: This stat is misleading. Seahawks were ranked 32nd,…

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In recent years, the Seattle Seahawks have had a notoriously poor offensive line. In the past 5 years, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has ranked their line as 20, 27, 19, 30, and 32 out of the 32 teams in the league. At the same time, the team finished #1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric in 4 of those 5 years, and #9 in the other year. On the other hand, there are the Cleveland Browns, whose line has been a consistent strength of the team.…

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With 57% of the season in the rear view mirror, here are a few thoughts… A few weeks ago, I went on the Numbers Game Podcast with Matthew Freedman and Kevin Cole. When asked about mid-season MVPs, I named Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, and Aaron Rodgers as prime candidates (with a hat tip to Ben Roethlisberger, who has played incredibly when healthy-ish). Well, just a few short weeks later and it is now a two man contest. Sure, Cam Newton manufactures some incredible…

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I haven’t had time to do much more than update stats recently, so I figured I’d write a little something to prove I’m still alive. Here are some thoughts and statistical curiosities so far this season. Tom Brady is the clear frontrunner for MVP. I don’t think I am going out on a limb when I say that; I’m not even climbing the tree. He’s leading the best team in the league, and he’s doing it with a great set of box scores; voters love…

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I’ve been traveling a lot over the past few weeks and haven’t had much time for research and writing, so the history of offense series has been stalled. I apologize for that. I planned on finishing my promised piece on AFL offenses last week, but Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio unexpectedly invited me to participate in his RSP Writer’s Project. When a man I respect tremendously offers me an opportunity to contribute to his site, I jump at it. So no AFL post…

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