2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 9

Below are the SRS ratings through Week 9; as noted last week, the offense and defense ratings do not include “non-offense” scores. This ranking is telling us that on a neutral field, the spread for a Chiefs/Bills matchup would be Chiefs -26. That’s an insane spread, but pretty reasonable considering what our eyeballs tell us about these two teams.

RankTeamTotal
SRS
OffPF
SRS
DefPA
SRS
SpD
1KAN12.513.1-4.13.6
2LAR9.79.9-2.21.9
3NOR8.29.2-0.7-0.3
4PIT7.60.73.83.1
5BAL7.53.52.81.2
6CHI6.90.94.31.7
7NWE6.36.1-1.71.9
8CAR4.53.61.4-0.5
9LAC4.01.63.8-1.4
10SEA3.40.54.2-1.4
11PHI1.8-1.75.3-1.8
12CIN1.3-1.00.02.3
13HOU1.31.8-1.91.5
14ATL1.35.5-2.7-1.6
15DEN1.0-1.2-0.42.6
16IND0.24.5-2.4-1.8
17MIN-0.50.7-0.2-1.0
18DAL-0.8-2.53.5-1.8
19TAM-1.55.1-6.6-0.1
20TEN-1.7-6.24.8-0.2
21GNB-1.9-0.9-0.4-0.6
22WAS-2.8-4.52.7-1.0
23NYJ-3.1-2.5-2.92.4
24CLE-3.3-0.8-2.70.3
25JAX-3.8-7.73.90.0
26DET-4.7-1.90.8-3.6
27SFO-5.00.4-4.7-0.7
28MIA-5.6-3.2-3.00.7
29NYG-5.7-3.50.3-2.5
30ARI-10.8-11.81.8-0.7
31OAK-13.0-7.9-5.40.4
32BUF-13.4-9.7-1.2-2.4

Is Chicago really a better team (albeit only slightly) than New England? Probably not. This rating (and PFR’s) includes all games and gives all games equal weight, so it doesn’t “know” that the first few games for the Patriots (and probably other teams as well) are more like preseason games where they figure out what they’ve got and what works, etc. I’m thinking within a few weeks, the Patriots will be in the top 5.

Enjoy, thanks.