Surplus Yards: QB Seasons

Earlier this month, I introduced a new stat called Surplus Yards over at Football Perspective. If you haven’t read that post, please do so before perusing the data I’m presenting today. The intro article looked back at the 2017 season, and this post will cover the 24 years for which I have appropriate data.

I calculated and archived every 40+ yard completion since 1994. The chart below shows the league average Surplus % for each of the last 24 seasons:

The overall average from 1994-2017 is 2.7%, but the trend line begs some interesting questions. Why did Surplus % bottom out in 1995-96 then rocket upward in 1998-99? Why did it spike again in 2008 then plateau for the next decade? Neither of the spikes coincided with rule changes, so I’m guessing the causes were a combination of strategy, personnel, and plain old randomness. If you have any explanations to offer, please share them in the comments!

With that macro level stuff out of the way, let’s take a look at the data for individual QB seasons. Below is a mega-chart displaying every qualifying season (224+ attempts) since 1994. In addition to the three variants of Surplus Yardage, I included the number of big pass plays (40+ yards) plus air yards and YAC per completion. There will be a follow up study detailing the relationship of air yards and YAC with Surplus Yards, but in the meantime maybe you guys can help pick out some trends that I’ve overlooked.

QuarterbackTeamYearSurp %Surp Y/ASurplusBigAir/CYAC/CAttYards
Eli ManningNYG20116.6%0.55326187.686.065894933
Kurt WarnerSTL20008.9%0.88306147.846.753473429
Drew BreesNOR20085.6%0.45286166.475.816355069
Aaron RodgersGNB20115.9%0.55274137.236.315024643
Drew BreesNOR20066.1%0.49269186.545.875544418
Aaron RodgersGNB20146.0%0.50261156.426.435204381
Aaron RodgersGNB20095.9%0.48260176.496.185414434
Steve YoungSFO19985.9%0.48248137.085.875174170
Eli ManningNYG20155.5%0.39242166.045.416184436
Alex SmithKAN20175.8%0.47236135.925.905054042
Josh FreemanTAM20125.7%0.42233167.475.815584065
Peyton ManningDEN20134.2%0.35230136.215.966595477
Tony RomoDAL20095.1%0.42230176.186.745504483
Jared GoffLAR20176.0%0.48230125.976.894773804
Donovan McNabbPHI20045.9%0.48227207.075.854693875
Brett FavreGNB20075.4%0.42224165.695.995354155
Michael VickPHI20107.2%0.58216126.706.253723018
Matt RyanATL20164.3%0.40212176.886.375344944
Brett FavreGNB19984.9%0.3820896.665.485514212
Trent GreenKAN20025.6%0.44208136.536.334703690
Kirk CousinsWAS20164.2%0.34205137.244.876064917
Drew BreesSDG20046.5%0.5120596.875.194003159
Drew BreesNOR20154.2%0.32203135.765.626274870
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20155.2%0.43203177.744.614693933
Andrew LuckIND20144.2%0.32199156.575.966164761
Daunte CulpepperMIN20044.2%0.36199186.186.275484717
Jake DelhommeCAR20055.8%0.46198136.606.464353421
Tom BradyNWE20113.7%0.32196146.316.746115235
Donovan McNabbPHI20067.4%0.62196146.947.763162647
Tony RomoDAL20085.7%0.43195126.785.724503448
Blake BortlesJAX20154.4%0.32194117.465.016064428
Aaron RodgersGNB20084.8%0.36193167.004.845364038
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20143.9%0.31191156.325.816084952
Tony RomoDAL20114.6%0.37191116.275.835224184
Matthew StaffordDET20134.1%0.30190106.096.456344650
Randall CunninghamMIN19985.1%0.45190198.725.584253704
Brad JohnsonTAM20035.0%0.3318996.224.545703811
Tony BanksBAL19998.8%0.5918997.065.583202136
Drew BreesNOR20163.6%0.28188105.945.126735208
Donovan McNabbWAS20105.5%0.40187116.046.244723377
Matt SchaubHOU20117.5%0.6418696.827.112922479
J.P. LosmanBUF20066.1%0.43185106.365.024293051
Doug FlutieBUF19986.8%0.5218487.834.673542711
Drew BreesNOR20133.5%0.28183155.805.786505162
Eli ManningNYG20094.6%0.36183127.055.635094021
Warren MoonMIN19954.3%0.30182126.394.836064228
Donovan McNabbPHI20095.1%0.41180176.766.544433553
Tom BradyNWE20094.1%0.32179126.055.815654398
Carson PalmerCIN20064.4%0.34178157.734.735204035
Kurt WarnerSTL19994.1%0.36178166.856.554994353
Philip RiversSDG20094.2%0.36177126.966.464864254
Joe FlaccoBAL20164.1%0.26175115.034.876724317
Elvis GrbacKAN19995.2%0.3517566.624.904993389
Chris ChandlerATL19985.5%0.53173119.786.823273154
Troy AikmanDAL19995.7%0.3817076.185.094422964
Ryan TannehillMIA20165.6%0.43169115.755.723892995
Drew BledsoeNWE19984.6%0.35168149.054.774813633
Jeff BlakeCIN19947.7%0.5416697.316.503062154
Kurt WarnerARI20083.6%0.28165126.015.425984583
Carson PalmerOAK20124.1%0.29165105.596.055654018
Andy DaltonCIN20175.0%0.3316595.345.844963320
Tom BradyNWE20164.6%0.3816586.196.024323554
Chris ChandlerATL20015.8%0.4516597.095.683652847
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20173.9%0.29164146.035.785614251
Drew BreesNOR20093.7%0.32164116.475.625144388
Cam NewtonCAR20124.2%0.34164117.226.604853869
Aaron RodgersGNB20104.2%0.35164106.556.024753922
Tom BradyNWE20073.4%0.28163157.005.075784806
Joe FlaccoBAL20134.1%0.26162145.625.186143912
Andy DaltonCIN20163.9%0.29162136.385.175634206
Carson PalmerARI20153.4%0.30161158.475.195374671
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20113.9%0.3116196.795.805134077
Matthew StaffordDET20163.7%0.27160105.415.745944327
Jeff GeorgeMIN19995.7%0.4916089.365.383292816
John ElwayDEN19974.4%0.3215997.735.255023635
Brad JohnsonWAS19993.9%0.30158146.975.715194005
Matt HasselbeckTEN20114.4%0.31158105.395.815183571
Jeff GeorgeOAK19974.0%0.30157118.175.345213917
Peyton ManningIND20043.4%0.32157138.435.134974557
Andy DaltonCIN20144.6%0.3315775.115.894813398
Tom BradyNWE20153.3%0.25156125.905.976244770
Matt SchaubHOU20093.3%0.27156156.445.615834770
Cam NewtonCAR20113.9%0.3015696.736.345174051
Brian GrieseDEN19995.1%0.3515666.724.904523032
Matt RyanATL20084.5%0.3615697.685.304343440
Andy DaltonCIN20133.6%0.26155155.885.955864293
Drew BledsoeDAL20054.3%0.3115597.404.734993639
Matthew StaffordDET20143.6%0.26154115.456.286024257
Stan HumphriesSDG19944.8%0.3415497.234.924533209
Carson PalmerARI20133.6%0.2715396.695.125724274
Peyton ManningIND20093.4%0.2715386.135.325714500
Tony BanksSTL19974.7%0.31153117.125.804873254
Robert GriffinWAS20124.8%0.3915367.155.233933200
Drew BledsoeNWE19974.1%0.29152126.884.925223706
Jake PlummerDEN20043.7%0.2915297.795.715214089
Drew BledsoeBUF20023.5%0.25151136.714.916104359
Matthew StaffordDET20113.0%0.23150166.275.706635038
Steve BeuerleinCAR19993.4%0.2615097.205.735714436
Russell WilsonSEA20173.8%0.27150126.844.915533983
Brett FavreGNB19963.8%0.28150116.675.335433899
Kyle OrtonDEN20093.9%0.2815095.176.155413802
Jon KitnaCIN20034.2%0.29150116.684.405203591
Philip RiversSDG20083.7%0.31150126.955.904784009
Gus FrerotteMIN20087.0%0.5015086.375.753012157
Drew BledsoeNWE19993.7%0.28149137.185.895393985
Kevin KolbARI20117.6%0.5914986.806.592531955
Daunte CulpepperMIN20003.7%0.31146128.824.434743937
Jacoby BrissettIND20174.7%0.3114695.415.824693098
Matt RyanATL20123.1%0.23144106.055.146154719
Jake PlummerARI20013.9%0.27144117.034.985253653
Randall CunninghamPHI19944.5%0.2914496.965.224903229
Philip RiversSDG20163.3%0.25143166.536.045784386
Eli ManningNYG20103.6%0.2714386.954.855394002
Derek CarrOAK20174.1%0.2814395.725.105153496
Jason CampbellOAK20106.0%0.4314385.307.003292387
Aaron RodgersGNB20135.6%0.4914376.286.852902536
Peyton ManningIND20033.3%0.2514296.364.895664267
Carson WentzPHI20174.3%0.3214297.544.904403296
Trent DilferCLE20056.1%0.4314275.985.683332321
Matthew StaffordDET20173.2%0.25141166.125.875654446
Trent GreenKAN20043.1%0.2514197.095.355564591
Jeff GeorgeATL19943.8%0.2714176.834.775243734
Jay CutlerCHI20153.9%0.29141106.715.534833659
Tony BanksSTL19965.5%0.3814198.324.933682544
Matt RyanATL20133.1%0.2214095.105.186514515
Tony RomoDAL20122.9%0.2214096.754.786484903
Donovan McNabbPHI20083.6%0.25140116.125.235713916
Peyton ManningIND20003.2%0.2514087.944.425714413
Tony RomoDAL20133.6%0.2613975.815.385353828
Erik KramerCHI19953.6%0.27139137.085.105223838
Tyrod TaylorBUF20164.6%0.3213876.964.284363023
Jeff BlakeCIN19953.6%0.24137106.794.725673822
Eli ManningNYG20163.4%0.23136115.295.395984027
Philip RiversSDG20102.9%0.25136146.606.605414710
Eli ManningNYG20123.4%0.25136107.754.555363948
Brian HoyerCLE20144.1%0.31136107.845.904383326
Jeff GarciaSFO20003.2%0.2413596.375.685614278
Aaron BrooksNOR20023.8%0.26135127.255.375283572
Dak PrescottDAL20174.1%0.2813586.144.654903324
Eli ManningNYG20143.0%0.22134106.245.396014410
Sam BradfordSTL20123.6%0.2413486.235.065513702
Sam BradfordPHI20153.6%0.25134144.855.925323725
Cam NewtonCAR20163.8%0.2613488.005.005103509
Jeff GarciaCLE20047.7%0.5313486.695.332521731
Vinny TestaverdeBAL19963.2%0.2413397.325.535494177
Peyton ManningIND20013.2%0.24133116.815.235474131
Trent DilferTAM19984.9%0.3113397.524.604292729
Craig EricksonTAM19944.6%0.33133128.254.723992919
Trent GreenKAN20013.5%0.25132127.275.515233783
Matt HasselbeckSEA20104.4%0.30132106.235.064443001
Kerry CollinsCAR19954.9%0.3013286.765.934332717
Philip RiversSDG20152.7%0.2013084.846.136614792
Tony RomoDAL20143.5%0.30130106.685.514353705
Jay CutlerCHI20104.0%0.3013066.705.844323274
Drew BreesNOR20112.4%0.20129116.345.376575476
Brett FavreGNB20063.3%0.2112975.146.186133885
Jim KellyBUF19954.1%0.28129117.255.034583130
Russell WilsonSEA20143.7%0.2912985.326.884523475
Kerry Collins2TM19985.8%0.3712968.124.893532213
Kirk CousinsWAS20153.1%0.2412885.965.035434166
Steve YoungSFO19943.2%0.2812886.116.144613969
Alex SmithSFO20064.4%0.2912785.475.784422890
Vinny TestaverdeNYJ19983.9%0.3012766.665.914213256
Jay CutlerDEN20082.8%0.2012676.894.906164526
Philip RiversLAC20172.8%0.22126116.366.185754515
Brett FavreGNB20043.1%0.23126127.334.495404088
Peyton ManningIND20053.4%0.2812667.574.714533747
Matt RyanATL20113.0%0.22125106.895.145664177
Donovan McNabbPHI20055.0%0.3512566.075.813572507
Tom BradyNWE20033.4%0.2412486.315.115273620
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20055.2%0.46124128.335.862682385
Chad HenneJAX20125.9%0.4012357.125.433082084
Tom BradyNWE20122.5%0.1912286.225.826374827
Carson PalmerCIN20103.1%0.2112296.274.705863970
Peyton ManningIND19993.0%0.23122117.185.325334135
Brett FavreGNB20013.1%0.24122136.545.955103921
Derek CarrOAK20163.1%0.2212185.785.255603937
Mark BrunellJAX19962.8%0.22121138.174.205574367
Aaron RodgersGNB20122.8%0.2212195.825.755524295
Brett FavreMIN20092.9%0.23121135.995.595314202
Chad PenningtonMIA20083.3%0.2512186.564.824763653
Carson PalmerCIN20044.2%0.2812187.263.764322897
Russell WilsonSEA20133.6%0.30121107.026.044073357
Jim EverettNOR19943.1%0.2212056.145.015403855
Scott MitchellDET19973.4%0.2412087.664.235093484
Donovan McNabbPHI20013.7%0.2412095.665.684933233
Jeff HostetlerRAI19943.6%0.2612077.804.874553334
Vinny TestaverdeCLE19944.7%0.3212075.756.693762575
Drew BreesNOR20122.3%0.18119136.895.376705177
Mike GlennonTAM20134.6%0.2911977.405.754162608
Dan MarinoMIA19964.3%0.32119107.065.593732795
Andrew LuckIND20133.1%0.2111895.275.875703822
Elvis GrbacKAN20002.8%0.2211877.755.045474169
Joe FlaccoBAL20083.9%0.27117105.985.584282971
Jeff BlakeCIN19994.4%0.3011776.495.933892670
Tony BanksWAS20014.9%0.3211766.056.003702386
Mark BrunellJAX19984.5%0.3311787.995.433542601
Byron LeftwichJAX20034.1%0.2811676.884.924182819
Tom BradyNWE20052.8%0.2211596.605.705304110
Andy DaltonCIN20123.1%0.22115125.675.485283669
Drew BledsoeBUF20043.9%0.2611586.914.544502932
Kordell StewartPIT19973.8%0.26115107.864.944403020
Brian GrieseDEN20023.6%0.2611576.005.044363214
Colin KaepernickSFO20133.6%0.28115106.813.744163197
Drew BreesNOR20102.5%0.17114105.634.686584620
Brett FavreGNB19952.6%0.2011456.355.945704413
Aaron BrooksNOR20033.2%0.2211476.824.765183546
Jeff GarciaSFO20013.2%0.23114105.785.415043538
Jake PlummerARI20003.9%0.24114106.154.764752946
JaMarcus RussellOAK20084.7%0.3111456.465.773682423
Brett FavreGNB19992.8%0.19113116.645.365954091
Kerry CollinsOAK20053.0%0.2011367.944.505653759
Peyton ManningIND20082.8%0.2011376.404.395554002
Andy DaltonCIN20113.3%0.22113106.574.765163398
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20092.6%0.22113147.055.795064328
Kerry CollinsNYG20033.6%0.2311376.664.295003110
Donovan McNabbPHI20073.4%0.24113106.065.364733324
Cam NewtonCAR20152.9%0.23112108.014.964953837
Trevor SiemianDEN20163.3%0.2311286.755.024863401
Ryan LeafSDG20005.9%0.3511257.254.453221883
Aaron RodgersGNB20162.5%0.18111105.965.096104428
Tom BradyNWE20102.8%0.2311195.856.194923900
Jim KellyBUF19964.0%0.2911177.824.843792810
Carson PalmerOAK20114.0%0.34111117.995.843282753
Nick FolesPHI20133.8%0.35111136.947.303172891
Rich GannonOAK20022.3%0.1811085.575.656184689
Eli ManningNYG20052.9%0.2011087.625.185573762
Eli ManningNYG20132.9%0.2011077.164.885513818
Peyton ManningIND20072.7%0.2111097.414.585154040
Colin KaepernickSFO20143.3%0.2311056.665.004783369
Mark BrunellWAS20053.6%0.2411095.905.744543050
Andy DaltonCIN20153.4%0.28110116.995.753863250
Scott MitchellDET19952.5%0.19109107.834.715834338
Joe FlaccoBAL20093.0%0.2210985.855.624993613
Joe FlaccoBAL20103.0%0.2210976.425.424893622
Jake DelhommeCAR20083.3%0.2610998.215.164143288
Nick FolesPHI20145.0%0.3510975.995.633112163
Curtis PainterIND20117.1%0.4510955.586.102431541
Aaron BrooksNOR20012.8%0.19108136.815.475583832
Brett FavreGNB20023.0%0.2010875.984.755513658
Kirk CousinsWAS20172.6%0.2010895.476.335404093
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20123.3%0.2410865.995.504493265
Tim CouchCLE19994.4%0.2710866.044.933992447
Matthew StaffordDET20094.8%0.2910865.136.153772267
Tom BradyNWE20132.5%0.1710785.775.666284343
Doug FlutieSDG20013.1%0.2110747.024.765213464
Matt SchaubHOU20083.5%0.2810786.275.863803043
Jeff GarciaTAM20074.4%0.3310785.895.783272440
Tony RomoDAL20072.5%0.20105117.445.135204211
Jason CampbellWAS20092.9%0.2110484.466.615073618
Ryan FitzpatrickHOU20144.2%0.3310486.885.733122483
Charlie BatchDET19984.8%0.3410457.714.883032178
Gus FrerotteDET19994.9%0.3610477.055.052882117
Colin KaepernickSFO20156.4%0.4310476.493.342441615
Drew BreesNOR20142.1%0.16103105.994.876594952
Trent GreenKAN20032.6%0.2010386.066.185234039
Brandon WeedenCLE20123.0%0.2010365.106.305173385
Chad PenningtonNYJ20063.1%0.2110395.964.744853352
Jake PlummerDEN20053.1%0.2310386.495.664563366
Tim CouchCLE20023.6%0.2310386.184.234432842
Seneca WallaceSEA20086.7%0.4310355.515.352421532
Andrew LuckIND20162.4%0.1910287.394.875454240
Matt CasselNWE20082.8%0.2010264.826.475163693
Jon KitnaDET20072.5%0.1810177.034.435614068
John ElwayDEN19952.5%0.19101106.995.585423970
Trent GreenKAN20052.5%0.20101117.015.665074014
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20123.0%0.2010174.956.165053400
Erik KramerCHI19973.4%0.2110166.244.714773011
Jim HarbaughSDG19993.7%0.23101106.294.804342761
Michael VickPHI20113.1%0.2410167.355.714233303
David CarrHOU20035.0%0.3410155.866.192952013
Cam NewtonCAR20133.0%0.2110075.635.954733379
Peyton ManningDEN20142.1%0.1799116.865.105974727
Joe FlaccoBAL20142.5%0.189976.315.285543986
Trent GreenWAS19982.9%0.199977.335.055093441
Dak PrescottDAL20162.7%0.229986.864.934593667
Steve McNairTEN20013.0%0.2399108.723.974313350
Matt CasselMIN20135.5%0.399956.295.522541807
Blake BortlesJAX20172.7%0.199875.456.255233687
Carson PalmerCIN20052.6%0.199897.044.085093836
Jake DelhommeCAR20033.0%0.229886.395.714493219
Kerry CollinsNYG19994.2%0.309846.515.693312318
Carson PalmerARI20146.0%0.449835.815.722241626
Peyton ManningIND19982.6%0.179786.035.445753739
Brett FavreGNB19972.5%0.199797.685.045133867
John ElwayDEN19942.8%0.2097116.045.334943490
Heath ShulerWAS19945.9%0.379758.435.392651658
Matt RyanATL20142.0%0.159686.125.206284694
Elvis GrbacBAL20013.2%0.219666.375.074673033
Mike TomczakPIT19963.5%0.249677.225.244012767
Steve McNairTEN20033.0%0.2496118.794.074003215
Alex Van PeltBUF20014.7%0.319665.785.773072056
Rich GannonOAK20002.8%0.209586.575.514733430
Tyrod TaylorBUF20153.1%0.2595117.844.703803035
Jeff GeorgeATL19952.3%0.1794106.336.005574143
Daunte CulpepperMIN20022.4%0.179496.674.905493853
Derek AndersonCLE20072.5%0.189467.705.015273787
Neil O'DonnellCIN19984.2%0.279486.875.233432216
Jason CampbellCLE20134.7%0.309475.265.943172015
Jim HarbaughBAL19985.1%0.329476.694.522931839
Ryan TannehillMIA20132.4%0.1693106.224.805883913
Marcus MariotaTEN20172.9%0.219366.774.734533232
Marc BulgerSTL20083.4%0.219375.515.324402720
Mark BrunellJAX20023.3%0.229365.935.454162788
Derek CarrOAK20152.3%0.1692106.115.295733987
Jim KellyBUF19943.0%0.219236.734.204483114
Mark BrunellWAS20065.1%0.359254.566.492601789
Andrew LuckIND20122.1%0.1591117.805.106274374
Ryan TannehillMIA20152.2%0.1691136.225.375864208
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20062.6%0.199177.055.504693513
Brad JohnsonTAM20023.0%0.209165.695.164513049
Kordell StewartPIT20012.9%0.219167.064.634423109
Charlie FryeCLE20063.7%0.239165.054.693922454
Steve YoungSFO19973.0%0.269145.846.733563029
Michael VickATL20043.9%0.289187.295.493212313
Tarvaris JacksonMIN20074.8%0.319146.095.082941911
Matt SchaubHOU20074.1%0.319167.474.202892241
Matt HasselbeckSEA20032.3%0.189056.515.765133841
Jay CutlerDEN20072.6%0.199076.345.434673497
Tony RomoDAL20063.1%0.279098.414.793372903
Peyton ManningIND20101.9%0.138995.994.456794700
Mark SanchezNYJ20102.7%0.1889106.805.045073291
Case KeenumMIN20172.5%0.198985.115.804813547
Josh FreemanTAM20102.6%0.1989106.245.624743451
Jay FiedlerMIA20012.7%0.208976.715.344503290
Michael VickATL20023.0%0.218987.794.924212936
Joey HarringtonDET20054.4%0.278965.834.923302021
Carson PalmerCIN20072.1%0.158886.644.445754131
Jim EverettNOR19952.2%0.168876.245.495673970
Kerry CollinsOAK20042.5%0.178887.134.965133495
Nick FolesSTL20154.3%0.268884.526.283372052
Doug JohnsonATL20035.3%0.368875.776.402431655
Warren MoonMIN19942.0%0.148786.534.966014264
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20112.3%0.158785.205.655693832
Todd CollinsBUF19973.7%0.228796.384.633912367
Derek CarrOAK20142.6%0.148664.914.495993270
Russell WilsonSEA20152.1%0.188695.955.814834024
Tommy MaddoxPIT20023.0%0.238667.754.373772836
Brandon WeedenCLE20135.0%0.328667.524.752671731
Joe FlaccoBAL20112.4%0.168575.965.615423610
Alex SmithKAN20152.4%0.1885104.936.424703486
Russell WilsonSEA20122.7%0.2285116.415.993933118
Tom BradyNWE20171.8%0.1484106.705.195814577
Eli ManningNYG20172.4%0.158345.114.745713468
Tarvaris JacksonSEA20112.7%0.188386.175.234503091
Jon KitnaSEA20003.1%0.208344.815.454182658
Rodney PeeteCAR20023.2%0.228367.404.393812630
Steve BeuerleinCAR19983.2%0.248376.793.673432613
Jake PlummerDEN20064.2%0.268346.055.353171994
Matthew StaffordDET20121.7%0.118296.454.977274967
Jameis WinstonTAM20152.0%0.158298.104.855354042
Brad JohnsonWAS20003.3%0.228275.635.363652505
Michael VickPHI20123.5%0.238246.255.333512362
Matt RyanATL20151.8%0.138196.554.736144591
Jeff GarciaSFO20022.4%0.158175.404.805283344
Jake LockerTEN20123.7%0.268177.245.053142176
Trent GreenSTL20003.9%0.348179.664.572402063
Matt SchaubHOU20122.0%0.158086.095.375444008
Troy AikmanDAL19972.4%0.158076.814.435183283
Kyle OrtonDEN20102.2%0.1680117.095.384983653
Matt RyanATL20092.7%0.188046.754.344512916
David CarrHOU20023.1%0.188056.334.794442592
Teddy BridgewaterMIN20142.7%0.208075.505.774022919
Jim MillerCHI20013.5%0.208075.214.883952299
Trent DilferTAM19973.1%0.218066.585.203862555
Ryan FitzpatrickTEN20133.3%0.238075.905.413502454
Peyton ManningDEN20153.6%0.248076.434.923312249
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20095.6%0.358045.915.282271422
Kerry CollinsNYG20012.1%0.147976.295.225683764
Drew BreesNOR20171.8%0.1579114.976.275364338
David GarrardJAX20092.2%0.157966.644.815163597
Mark BrunellJAX19992.6%0.187987.744.074413060
Byron LeftwichJAX20042.7%0.187977.223.804412941
Chris MillerSTL19953.0%0.207946.464.844052623
Chris ChandlerHOU19953.2%0.227967.113.823562460
Brad JohnsonMIN20054.2%0.277965.294.962941885
Peyton ManningIND20021.9%0.1378116.424.305914200
Jay CutlerCHI20092.1%0.147865.964.955553666
Tim CouchCLE20012.6%0.177876.464.724543040
Jeff GarciaTAM20082.9%0.217856.005.113762712
Brad JohnsonMIN19963.5%0.257865.855.733112258
C.J. BeathardSFO20175.5%0.357866.115.522241430
Marc BulgerSTL20061.8%0.1377106.365.265884301
Aaron RodgersGNB20152.0%0.137765.185.845723821
Stan HumphriesSDG19975.2%0.347746.835.462251488
Gus FrerotteMIA20052.5%0.157686.485.184942996
Chad HenneMIA20092.6%0.177645.804.704512878
Troy AikmanDAL19942.8%0.217656.894.593612676
Tom BradyNWE20141.8%0.137585.795.235824109
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ20151.9%0.137596.345.325623905
Dan MarinoMIA19952.0%0.167566.715.174823668
Drew BreesNOR20071.7%0.117485.254.806524423
Philip RiversSDG20141.7%0.137495.845.475704286
Jay CutlerCHI20141.9%0.137484.435.885613812
Joe FlaccoBAL20121.9%0.1474126.535.515313817
Quincy CarterDAL20032.2%0.157476.554.755053302
Steve McNairBAL20062.4%0.167435.844.504683050
Jeff HostetlerOAK19953.7%0.267446.525.092861998
Kerry CollinsTEN20104.1%0.277447.613.792781823
Dan OrlovskyDET20084.6%0.297426.744.562551616
Kerry CollinsNYG20021.8%0.137346.825.335454073
Kyle OrtonBUF20142.4%0.167374.965.564473018
Gus FrerotteWAS19952.7%0.187388.645.183962751
Carson PalmerARI20161.7%0.127267.104.525974233
Peyton ManningDEN20121.5%0.127286.664.995834659
Jeff BlakeARI20033.2%0.207266.264.543672247
Kurt WarnerSTL20011.5%0.1371117.365.525464830
Philip RiversSDG20131.6%0.137165.836.025444478
Mark BrunellJAX19972.2%0.167187.245.194353281
Blaine GabbertJAX20113.2%0.177144.925.624132214
Geno SmithNYJ20142.8%0.197175.765.773672525
Matt HasselbeckSEA20071.8%0.127076.284.995623966
Russell WilsonSEA20161.7%0.1370116.925.035464219
Mark SanchezPHI20142.9%0.237066.096.133092418
Jeff BlakeCIN19961.9%0.1369116.325.445493624
Matt RyanATL20171.7%0.136986.345.645294095
Donovan McNabbPHI20032.1%0.146996.015.694783216
David CarrHOU20042.0%0.156966.565.824663531
Daunte CulpepperMIN20032.0%0.1569106.285.524543479
Jeff GarciaSFO20032.6%0.186966.665.363922704
Jeff BlakeBAL20023.3%0.236957.275.362952084
Damon HuardKAN20063.7%0.286957.065.632441878
Brett FavreGNB20001.8%0.126876.095.195803812
Donovan McNabbPHI20002.0%0.126855.115.095693365
Matt CasselKAN20092.3%0.146886.244.554932924
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20082.1%0.146876.884.874693301
Rick MirerSEA19952.7%0.176877.105.173912564
Mark SanchezNYJ20092.8%0.196887.285.193642444
Steve McNairTEN19993.1%0.216865.935.733312179
Cade McNownCHI20004.1%0.246856.104.592801646
Jake PlummerARI20022.3%0.136736.184.295302972
Mark BrunellJAX20001.8%0.136797.584.125123640
Blake BortlesJAX20142.3%0.146764.455.944752908
Troy AikmanDAL19962.1%0.146756.434.144653126
Shaun KingTAM20002.4%0.166757.084.814282769
Michael VickATL20062.7%0.176787.704.433882474
Matt LeinartARI20062.6%0.186767.264.643772547
David GarrardJAX20102.5%0.186756.415.183662734
Chad PenningtonNYJ20033.1%0.236766.235.092972139
Brock OsweilerDEN20153.4%0.246746.165.412751967
Erik KramerCHI19983.7%0.276757.035.042501823
Carson WentzPHI20161.7%0.116665.154.836073782
Peyton ManningIND20061.5%0.126677.984.175574397
Warren MoonSEA19971.8%0.136696.755.005283678
Steve YoungSFO19952.1%0.156675.365.344473200
Shaun HillDET20102.5%0.166634.485.974162686
Chris ChandlerATL19972.5%0.196687.965.373422692
Derek AndersonCLE20084.1%0.236656.275.102831615
Cade McNownCHI19994.5%0.286666.395.152351465
Brett FavreGNB20051.7%0.116575.664.776073881
Vinny TestaverdeNYJ20001.7%0.116576.514.875903732
Tom BradyNWE20061.8%0.136585.655.425163529
Alex SmithKAN20161.9%0.136584.825.864893502
Josh McCownNYJ20172.2%0.166576.024.943972926
Alex SmithSFO20102.7%0.196475.166.463422370
Terrelle PryorOAK20133.6%0.246445.466.062721798
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20161.6%0.126386.395.265093819
Jeff GarciaSFO19992.5%0.176376.175.133752544
JaMarcus RussellOAK20094.9%0.266325.485.242461287
Rex GrossmanCHI20061.9%0.136287.165.024803193
Tom BradyNWE20012.2%0.156265.195.584132843
Jay CutlerCHI20132.4%0.176287.134.573552621
Rich GannonKAN19982.7%0.186246.025.173542305
Charlie BatchDET20012.6%0.186256.925.163412392
Aaron RodgersGNB20173.7%0.266245.075.812381675
Dan MarinoMIA19941.4%0.106176.864.706154453
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20131.4%0.1061105.495.875844261
Philip RiversSDG20111.3%0.106186.735.905824624
Matt SchaubHOU20101.4%0.116196.125.855744370
Jon KitnaCIN20021.9%0.136146.863.954733178
Jake DelhommeCAR20062.2%0.146175.495.174312805
Brian GrieseTAM20042.3%0.186166.005.303362632
Andrew LuckIND20153.2%0.216137.164.452931881
Doug PedersonPHI19994.8%0.276125.245.492271276
Joe FlaccoBAL20171.9%0.116054.634.305493141
Tom BradyNWE20041.6%0.1360108.204.614743692
Jay CutlerCHI20122.0%0.146056.964.934343033
Jeff HostetlerOAK19962.4%0.156055.754.784022548
Case KeenumLAR20162.7%0.196086.165.073222201
Jake PlummerARI19972.7%0.206079.134.902962203
Trent EdwardsBUF20073.7%0.226045.125.682691630
Matthew StaffordDET20151.4%0.105984.676.045924262
Eli ManningNYG20061.8%0.115986.194.595223244
Alex SmithKAN20131.8%0.125964.805.965083313
Steve BonoKAN19962.3%0.135945.425.534382572
Drew BreesSDG20032.8%0.175954.525.763562108
Dan MarinoMIA19981.7%0.115866.614.675373497
Ryan TannehillMIA20121.8%0.125836.884.804843294
Brad JohnsonMIN19971.9%0.135876.364.684523036
Tyler ThigpenKAN20082.2%0.145846.554.794202608
Neil O'DonnellPIT19952.0%0.145847.075.004162970
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20101.8%0.155887.385.953893200
Chris ChandlerATL19992.5%0.195868.884.563072339
Kellen ClemensSTL20133.5%0.245826.405.382421673
Matt HasselbeckSEA20062.3%0.155757.763.873712442
Troy AikmanDAL19982.4%0.185787.614.843152330
Chad HenneJAX20131.7%0.115654.526.115033241
Carson PalmerCIN20091.8%0.125656.334.644663094
Colt McCoyCLE20112.0%0.125655.644.684632733
Geno SmithNYJ20131.8%0.135667.075.264433046
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20101.9%0.135686.515.264413000
Bobby HebertATL19961.7%0.115575.325.404883152
Philip RiversSDG20061.6%0.125556.885.054603388
Matt CasselKAN20101.8%0.125545.796.114503116
Colin KaepernickSFO20162.5%0.175555.665.773312241
Case KeenumHOU20133.1%0.225567.685.172531760
Kordell StewartCHI20033.9%0.225547.224.032511418
Trent DilferTAM19993.4%0.235545.995.102441619
J.P. LosmanBUF20054.1%0.245566.585.272281340
Jameis WinstonTAM20171.5%0.125457.674.764423504
Jon KitnaDAL20102.3%0.175464.666.663182365
Chris SimmsTAM20052.7%0.175436.064.593132035
Christian PonderMIN20112.9%0.195446.115.622911853
Blaine GabbertJAX20123.2%0.195435.744.522781662
Josh FreemanTAM20111.5%0.105355.225.165513592
Marc BulgerSTL20041.3%0.115367.574.784853964
Marcus MariotaTEN20161.5%0.125377.594.824513426
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20071.7%0.135367.574.384043154
Alex SmithSFO20092.3%0.145355.275.173722350
Charlie BatchDET19992.7%0.205386.766.202701957
Sam BradfordMIN20161.3%0.095284.665.155523877
Matt HasselbeckSEA20051.5%0.125277.674.094493459
Joey HarringtonDET20022.3%0.125265.265.414292294
Stan HumphriesSDG19961.9%0.135266.684.834162670
Danny KanellNYG19973.0%0.185265.745.412941740
Bobby HoyingPHI19973.3%0.235236.755.552251573
Brett FavreNYJ20081.5%0.105174.945.195223472
Vince YoungTEN20072.0%0.135155.854.853822546
Marcus MariotaTEN20151.8%0.145147.105.153702818
Jay FiedlerMIA20002.1%0.145187.054.723572402
John ElwayDEN19981.8%0.145168.934.433562806
Josh McCownTAM20142.3%0.165167.794.203272206
Philip RiversSDG20121.4%0.095034.935.745273606
Jason CampbellWAS20081.5%0.105034.955.355063245
Doug FlutieBUF19991.6%0.105077.234.784783171
Kerry CollinsCAR19962.0%0.145047.184.853642454
Eli ManningNYG20071.5%0.094966.604.635293336
Kerry CollinsNYG20001.4%0.094976.085.535293610
Josh McCownCLE20152.3%0.174965.875.472922109
Kurt WarnerNYG20042.4%0.184966.225.592772054
Kelly HolcombBUF20053.2%0.214934.445.302301509
Josh McCownCHI20132.7%0.224936.385.902241829
Cam NewtonCAR20171.5%0.104855.645.714923302
Brett FavreGNB20031.4%0.104875.745.184713361
Kyle OrtonCHI20081.6%0.104835.605.334652972
Tony BanksSTL19981.9%0.124845.854.674082535
Trent EdwardsBUF20081.8%0.134855.855.173742699
Chris ChandlerATL20002.1%0.154856.515.143312236
John SkeltonARI20112.5%0.174876.955.722751913
Drew BledsoeNWE19961.2%0.084736.174.796234086
Jake DelhommeCAR20041.2%0.094788.314.225333886
Steve McNairTEN20051.5%0.104775.695.134763161
Brian GrieseDEN20001.7%0.144757.165.293362688
Chris ChandlerHOU19962.2%0.154736.305.113202099
Sam BradfordSTL20132.8%0.184734.725.892621687
Vince YoungTEN20092.5%0.184746.895.472591879
Chad HutchinsonDAL20023.0%0.194777.384.872501555
Michael VickATL20051.9%0.124637.144.133872412
Neil O'DonnellPIT19941.9%0.124676.225.313702443
Matt MooreMIA20111.8%0.134667.604.293472497
Ryan LeafSDG19983.6%0.194636.075.542451289
Rex GrossmanCHI20073.3%0.204656.485.082251411
Boomer EsiasonNYJ19941.6%0.104535.325.594402782
Ryan FitzpatrickCIN20082.4%0.124524.783.843721905
Dan MarinoMIA19991.8%0.124557.404.603692448
Blaine GabbertSFO20152.2%0.164555.196.222822031
Brian GrieseCHI20072.5%0.174525.355.852621803
Christian PonderMIN20121.5%0.094434.075.714832935
Kurt WarnerARI20071.3%0.104457.504.664513417
Jake PlummerARI19992.1%0.124446.044.463812111
David GarrardJAX20071.8%0.144457.414.653252509
Kurt WarnerARI20051.6%0.114346.484.733752713
Sam BradfordSTL20112.0%0.124336.604.733572164
Dave BrownNYG19941.7%0.124397.125.493502536
Steve BonoKAN19951.3%0.084256.054.605203121
Joe MontanaKAN19941.3%0.094255.475.514933283
Gus FrerotteWAS19961.2%0.094267.375.414703453
Kyle BollerBAL20041.6%0.094245.814.114642559
Jake PlummerDEN20031.9%0.144256.654.903022182
Drew BledsoeNWE20001.2%0.084145.045.505313291
Kordell StewartPIT19981.6%0.094146.263.904582560
Frank ReichNYJ19961.9%0.124168.244.363312205
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20041.6%0.144168.484.892952621
Kellen ClemensNYJ20072.7%0.164146.165.602501529
Jason CampbellWAS20071.5%0.104046.024.784172700
Matt HasselbeckSEA20012.0%0.124046.305.203212023
Kyle BollerBAL20033.2%0.184035.984.882241260
Steve McNairTEN20021.2%0.083967.224.044923387
Alex SmithKAN20141.2%0.083934.376.414643265
Troy AikmanDAL19951.2%0.093987.104.704323304
Daunte CulpepperMIN20011.5%0.113956.214.903662612
Patrick RamseyWAS20031.8%0.123936.375.733372166
Jay CutlerCHI20111.7%0.123956.975.773142319
Steve BeuerleinARI19942.5%0.153937.184.702551545
Teddy BridgewaterMIN20151.2%0.093864.856.224473231
Alex SmithSFO20111.2%0.093866.155.374453144
Jim HarbaughIND19951.5%0.123887.125.763142575
Cleo LemonMIA20072.1%0.123825.175.083091773
Rick MirerSEA19962.5%0.143846.245.132651546
Drew StantonARI20142.2%0.163867.885.082401711
David KlinglerCIN19942.9%0.163844.815.322311327
Joey HarringtonDET20031.3%0.073734.754.575542880
Chad HenneMIA20101.1%0.083746.344.634903301
Neil O'DonnellNYJ19971.3%0.083726.424.374602796
Trent DilferTAM19951.3%0.093737.554.834152774
Steve McNairTEN19971.4%0.093757.165.184152665
Joey HarringtonATL20071.7%0.113724.915.403482215
Tim RattaySFO20041.7%0.113726.434.523252169
Brett HundleyGNB20172.0%0.123744.145.433161836
Rob JohnsonBUF20001.7%0.123747.204.943062125
Matt HasselbeckSEA20041.1%0.083627.194.944743382
Scott MitchellDET19961.2%0.083638.023.514372917
Steve McNairTEN20001.3%0.093656.275.213962847
Jake DelhommeCAR20091.8%0.113646.325.003212015
Jay FiedlerMIA20031.7%0.113626.795.163142138
Austin DavisSTL20141.8%0.133645.855.272842001
Trent DilferBAL20002.4%0.163666.694.522261502
Mark SanchezNYJ20111.0%0.063526.005.285433474
Tommy MaddoxPIT20031.0%0.073547.104.365193414
Matt HasselbeckSEA20091.2%0.073554.455.894883029
Jim EverettNOR19961.3%0.083556.344.134642797
Rex GrossmanWAS20111.1%0.083566.525.374583151
Mitch TrubiskyCHI20171.6%0.113535.995.193302193
Jake PlummerARI19980.9%0.063466.814.735473737
DeShone KizerCLE20171.2%0.073435.585.774762894
Dave BrownNYG19951.2%0.073456.134.954562814
Mark SanchezNYJ20121.2%0.083457.554.174532883
Vinny TestaverdeCLE19951.2%0.093447.024.943922883
Kyle BollerBAL20072.0%0.123446.513.862751743
Craig WhelihanSDG19972.5%0.143446.974.532371357
Dan MarinoMIA19970.9%0.063346.964.895483780
Rich GannonOAK19990.9%0.063376.416.225153840
Brock OsweilerHOU20161.1%0.063345.943.895102957
Boomer EsiasonARI19961.4%0.103336.375.703392293
Jim HarbaughIND19971.6%0.113346.694.213092060
Brooks BollingerNYJ20052.1%0.123346.264.132661558
Patrick RamseyWAS20022.1%0.153357.615.552271539
Robert GriffinWAS20131.0%0.073246.005.694563203
Brian GrieseDEN20011.1%0.073225.404.884512827
Jay CutlerMIA20171.2%0.073225.384.654292666
Josh McCownARI20051.7%0.123266.294.982701836
Vinny TestaverdeDAL20040.9%0.063147.634.274953532
Aaron BrooksNOR20051.1%0.073147.284.734312882
Charlie BatchDET20001.2%0.083136.055.224122489
Chad PenningtonNYJ20041.2%0.083166.224.823702673
Jay FiedlerMIA20021.5%0.113136.285.022922024
Kent GrahamARI19961.9%0.113125.865.262741624
Shaun HillSTL20141.9%0.143135.645.792291657
Jon KitnaSEA19990.9%0.063058.364.034953346
Stan HumphriesSDG19950.9%0.063047.594.404783381
Joe FlaccoBAL20151.1%0.073044.905.594132791
Gus FrerotteWAS19971.1%0.073056.886.274022682
Craig WhelihanSDG19981.7%0.093046.645.463201803
John ElwayDEN19960.9%0.062956.575.034663328
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ20161.1%0.072956.825.074032710
Damon HuardKAN20071.3%0.092926.064.903322257
Bruce GradkowskiTAM20061.7%0.092934.245.153281661
Kent GrahamNYG19991.7%0.112926.134.482711697
Drew BledsoeNWE19940.6%0.042837.224.176914555
Aaron BrooksNOR20040.7%0.052857.774.565423810
Chris MillerRAM19941.3%0.092845.976.193172104
Kelly HolcombCLE20031.6%0.092814.994.323021797
Tim TebowDEN20111.6%0.102868.445.282711729
Kyle Orton2TM20111.6%0.112846.295.432521758
Sage RosenfelsHOU20071.7%0.122847.163.772401684
Drew BreesSDG20050.8%0.052746.284.795003576
Kerry CollinsTEN20081.0%0.072745.725.344152676
Steve YoungSFO19961.1%0.092745.965.303162410
Marc BulgerSTL20051.2%0.092737.794.182872297
Billy Joe TolliverNOR19991.4%0.102769.144.642681916
Blake BortlesJAX20160.7%0.042645.455.166253905
Donovan McNabbPHI20021.1%0.072636.274.573612289
Billy VolekTEN20041.0%0.072657.184.223572486
Jeff BlakeCIN19971.2%0.082635.885.673172125
Jim MillerCHI20021.3%0.082626.494.313141944
Ray LucasNYJ19991.5%0.102625.604.822721678
Chad PenningtonNYJ20071.5%0.102635.834.032601765
Matt RyanATL20100.7%0.042566.413.975713705
Cam NewtonCAR20140.8%0.062546.825.114483127
Brett FavreGNB19940.6%0.042445.255.445823882
Dave KriegARI19950.7%0.052446.135.565213554
Joey HarringtonMIA20061.1%0.062455.614.423882236
Doug FlutieBUF20001.4%0.102448.544.342311700
Jon KitnaDET20060.5%0.042336.394.925964208
Drew BledsoeBUF20030.8%0.052326.074.374712860
Vinny TestaverdeBAL19970.8%0.052366.254.724702971
David CarrHOU20050.9%0.052325.414.314232488
Matt CasselKAN20111.3%0.092355.984.732691713
Ty DetmerPHI19971.5%0.092326.015.682441567
Drew BreesSDG20020.7%0.042245.245.025263284
Jim HarbaughIND19960.8%0.052265.925.424052630
Dave KriegCHI19961.0%0.062225.354.733772278
Jeff BlakeNOR20001.1%0.072245.385.633022025
Brady QuinnCLE20091.6%0.092235.004.852561339
Sam BradfordSTL20100.6%0.042144.445.495903512
Ryan TannehillMIA20140.5%0.042145.315.015904045
Joey HarringtonDET20040.7%0.042135.395.734893047
Tyrod TaylorBUF20170.8%0.052145.804.844202799
Matt HasselbeckIND20151.2%0.082135.725.122561690
Chris WeinkeCAR20010.7%0.042045.514.495402931
Mark BrunellWAS20041.7%0.082036.503.622371194
Kerry CollinsCAR19970.9%0.051916.604.023812124
Jimmy ClausenCAR20101.2%0.061924.545.382991558
Ken DorseySFO20041.5%0.081915.934.072261231
Philip RiversSDG20070.6%0.041846.275.104603152
David CarrHOU20060.7%0.041833.975.204422767
Matt HasselbeckSEA20020.6%0.041846.445.074193075
Kyle OrtonCHI20051.0%0.051835.993.853681869
Steve WalshCHI19940.9%0.051835.264.733432078
Elvis GrbacKAN19970.9%0.061825.994.873141943
Steve BeuerleinCAR20000.5%0.031726.415.105333730
Rick MirerSEA19940.8%0.041746.484.553812151
Shaun HillSFO20080.8%0.061736.364.942882046
Jay SchroederARI19941.1%0.071755.705.652381510
Steve McNairTEN19980.5%0.031636.594.584923228
Shane MatthewsCHI19991.0%0.061615.233.932751645
Patrick RamseyWAS20041.0%0.061625.943.912721665
Rich GannonOAK20010.4%0.031555.914.695493828
Brian HoyerHOU20150.6%0.041557.584.063692606
Marc BulgerSTL20091.0%0.061525.415.092471469
Byron LeftwichJAX20050.7%0.051457.654.483022123
Warren MoonMIN19960.9%0.061427.544.472471610
Brett FavreMIN20100.5%0.041315.366.203582509
Vince YoungTEN20060.6%0.041316.725.233572199
Tony BanksBAL20000.8%0.051325.395.132741578
Jameis WinstonTAM20160.3%0.021247.834.025674090
Chad PenningtonNYJ20020.4%0.031235.955.393993120
Danny KanellNYG19980.7%0.041125.784.242991603
Andrew WalterOAK20060.7%0.041117.753.662761677
Carson PalmerARI20170.6%0.041127.314.762661968
Christian PonderMIN20130.7%0.051125.984.862391648
Gus FrerotteDEN20000.6%0.051156.476.402321776
Drew BledsoeNWE19950.3%0.021026.364.506363507
Tom BradyNWE20020.3%0.021034.785.316013764
Jon KitnaCIN20010.3%0.021026.863.425813216
Marc BulgerSTL20030.3%0.021057.074.385323845
Josh McCownARI20040.4%0.021036.674.114082511
E.J. ManuelBUF20130.5%0.031045.665.293061972
Kordell StewartPIT20000.5%0.031027.564.752891860
Nick FolesPHI20120.6%0.041024.885.672651699
Kent GrahamARI19970.7%0.041036.284.552501408
David GarrardJAX20060.6%0.041026.225.742411735
Kurt WarnerARI20090.2%0.02936.204.875133753
Eli ManningNYG20080.3%0.02946.984.224793238
Warren MoonSEA19980.6%0.03937.234.022581632
Mike TomczakPIT19990.6%0.03917.614.082581625
Anthony WrightBAL20050.5%0.03815.634.012661582
Troy AikmanDAL20000.5%0.03816.354.112621632
Ryan Mallett2TM20150.6%0.03815.226.002441336
Brad JohnsonTAM20010.2%0.01715.704.325593406
Boomer EsiasonNYJ19950.3%0.02735.354.953892275
Matt SchaubHOU20130.3%0.02736.154.403582310
Kyle BollerBAL20050.4%0.02715.684.842931799
Donald HollasOAK19980.4%0.03717.835.162601754
Brad JohnsonMIN20060.2%0.01644.935.264392750
Matt CasselKAN20120.3%0.02615.865.302771796
Akili SmithCIN20000.5%0.02616.084.532671253
Rich GannonOAK20030.5%0.03615.654.542251274
Trent DilferTAM19960.2%0.01526.084.634822859
Mark BrunellJAX19950.2%0.01517.003.793462168
Billy Joe TolliverHOU19940.4%0.02525.395.252401287
Mark BrunellJAX20010.1%0.01427.633.824733309
Trevor SiemianDEN20170.2%0.01426.045.053492285
Derek AndersonARI20100.1%0.01317.754.473272065
Kordell StewartPIT19990.2%0.01324.335.522751464
Shane MatthewsWAS20020.2%0.01315.404.692371251
Ty DetmerPHI19960.1%0.00226.715.534012911
Josh FreemanTAM20090.1%0.01227.234.512901855
David GarrardJAX20080.0%0.00116.354.465353620
Vinny TestaverdeNYJ20010.0%0.00015.475.124412752
Dave BrownNYG19960.0%0.00006.664.613982412
Marc BulgerSTL20070.0%0.00016.814.023782392
Rodney PeetePHI19950.0%0.00005.924.903752326
A.J. FeeleyMIA20040.0%0.00006.163.753561893
Scott MitchellDET19940.0%0.00009.243.002461456
Brodie CroyleKAN20070.0%0.00005.294.372241227
Bobby HoyingPHI19980.0%0.00003.794.64224961

Since a table this large is rather ungainly to look at, I narrowed it down to seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards, then picked out the top 50 and bottom 50 seasons in Surplus % to view in more detail. First, the top:

As random as Surplus Yards are in the aggregate, the top of the chart doesn’t look like a random list of QB’s. There are a number of great seasons by great QB’s that were pushed into MVP territory by the bonus yardage from long plays. Even compared to the best seasons of big plays, Kurt Warner’s 2000 sticks out like a sore thumb. Warner tallied a ridiculous 306 Surplus Yards in only 11 games, including six completions of at least 72 yards. He had two games in particular that were just bananas: In week 1 against the Broncos, Warner tossed an 80 yard TD to Az-Zahir Hakim and a 72 yard TD to Marshall Faulk (the Hakim play is famous for looking like a relay race). In week 4 vs. Atlanta, Warner threw an 85 yard TD to Torry Holt, an 80 yard TD to Holt, and a 66 yard TD to Isaac Bruce; his stat line for the game was 12/19 for 336 yards!

But let’s be fair, there are some very mediocre QB’s sprinkled among the big play leaders. Nobody thinks J.P. Losman was anything but a bust, yet he managed to rack up the Surplus Yards back in 2006 (fun fact: both of his 83 yard completions occurred in the same quarter against Houston). Josh Freeman did nothing outside out of two decent seasons, RGIII is now a career backup, Jacoby Brissett is an unknown, Tony Banks played forever despite sucking a lot, Blake Bortles and Andy Dalton are human memes, and Tyrod Taylor was hated by his own front office. That brings us to Jared Goff, who inspired this whole study in the first place. Will he prove himself to be great over the next few seasons, or was his 2017 breakout a fluke of unsustainable long plays? Regardless of how Goff’s career turns out, the chances of him picking up 230 Surplus Yards again next year are vey low.

Now, the bottom 50:

Here’s where the randomness of Surplus Yardage really comes to the forefront. With a few exceptions, this is chart is populated by plenty of good and great QB’s, some of whom had Pro Bowl seasons in spite of the paucity of bonus yardage. There are a number of QB’s who appear among the top and bottom 50 seasons, reinforcing the idea that Surplus Yards have little to do with the QB himself and are wildly inconsistent from year to year. Matt Hasselbeck shows up on the worst list in 2009 then jumps up to the best list in 2010 and 2011; Bortles made the best list in 2015 and worst list in 2016; Warner has the best Surplus % season and the fourth worst; Alex Smith had two seasons on the worst list before cracking the best list in 2017; RGIII went from best in 2012 to worst in 2013. I could go on, but you get the point – randomness rules.