2017 WEEK 14 PICKS, RANKINGS

Another mediocre week, 8 correct picks against the spread. I should be doing better at this point in the season, because – theoretically – I now have enough data to accurately gauge team strengths. While my picks haven’t taken a nose dive, I’m certainly struggling. No sense going back and complaining about lost games, but I do have one gripe: I did pretty well with my Super Hot Picks, getting 2 out of 3 correct, but I could have (and should have) gone 3-0 if the Texans didn’t allow Titans RB Derrick Henry to romp 75 yards for a score in the final minute, WHEN THERE WAS NO NEED TO DO SO. Thanks DERRICK.

Where I’m at:

All Picks: 103-89, 53.6%
ESPN Leaderboard Rank: 9640, 94%
Super Hot Sizzling Picks: 19-17, 52.7%
Bankroll: +$51 (betting $11 on every game)

WEEK 14 PICKS

DayDateAwayHomeMy
Spread
ESPN PP
Spread
My
ATS
Pick
Pred
Score
Thu12/7/17NORATL+3+0.5NOR26-23
Sun12/10/17INDBUF-5-3.5BUF18-23
Sun12/10/17CHICIN-6-6.5CHI13-19
Sun12/10/17GNBCLE+2+3.5CLE23-21
Sun12/10/17DALNYG+4+4.5NYG23-19
Sun12/10/17DETTAM+2+3.5TAM26-24
Sun12/10/17OAKKAN-6-3.5KAN20-26
Sun12/10/17MINCAR-1+2.5CAR20-21
Sun12/10/17SFOHOU-8-2.5HOU19-27
Sun12/10/17NYJDEN+2+0.5NYJ21-19
Sun12/10/17TENARI-1+2.5ARI22-23
Sun12/10/17WASSDG-4-6.5WAS20-24
Sun12/10/17PHILAR-1-2.5PHI23-24
Sun12/10/17SEAJAX-6-2.5JAX15-21
Sun12/10/17BALPIT-7-5.5PIT17-24
Mon12/11/17NWEMIA+14+11.5NWE30-16

Probably taking too many favorites (9) this week, but it is what it is. Quick thoughts:

  1. Not comfortable with my Ravens/Steelers pick. I’ve got the Steelers winning by 7, but the games between these two rivals are generally closer than that. Their Week 4 game, in which Pittsburgh won 26-9, was the first time since 2014 that the point differential in this match up was higher than 7.
  2. The Bengals/Bears game bugs me because my own spread is right at Bengals -6.5 and I don’t do pushes. I’m going Bears because the Bengals are a little beat up after the Steelers game.
  3. As I said last week, it’s The Most Wonderful Time of The Year to bet on the Patriots because they’ll beat the spread whatever it is. Pretty certain they’ll cover against Miami this week (unless Cutler goes off, which I supposed could happen).

SUPER HOT SIZZLING PICKS OF THE WEEK

(Apologies for the short write-ups, not enough time this week!)

Seattle at Jacksonville, Jaguars by 2.5
My ATS pick: Jaguars

Really weird to see the Jags favored over the Hawks, but I do think they’re the better team. Wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle won the game, but The Machine commands me to take Bortles and that awesome defense: Jaguars 21, Seattle 15.

Tennessee at Arizona, Titans by 2.5
My ATS pick: Cardinals

The Machine does not like the Titans and the Cardinals are at home, I like Arizona to win the game: Cardinals 23, Titans 22.

San Francisco at Houston, Texans by 2.5
My ATS pick: Texans

I don’t have much of a feel for this game at all, so it’s an odd one to be my pick of the week. The Machine doesn’t have much faith in the Niners, but maybe it doesn’t yet know about the powers of Jimmy G? We’ll find out, but I’ve got the Texans big: Texans 27, 49ers 19.

RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 13

RkTeamMcD
SRS
Tier
1NWE10.81
2PHI9.92
3NOR9.22
4LAR8.52
5MIN5.43
6JAX5.43
7PIT5.24
8CAR3.74
9ATL3.54
10SEA2.84
11SDG2.74
12WAS1.65
13BAL1.15
14DAL0.25
15DET-0.26
16HOU-0.46
17CIN-0.66
18KAN-1.16
19TEN-2.16
20NYJ-2.46
21GNB-2.97
22TAM-3.97
23BUF-4.17
24ARI-4.47
25OAK-4.87
26CHI-4.97
27MIA-5.38
28NYG-6.18
29SFO-6.38
30DEN-6.68
31IND-6.68
32CLE-7.18

Have a great week all!

  • Adam

    The difference in your SF/HOU line vs Vegas’ really illustrates the lag in The Machine you mentioned last week. Your system is still giving HOU credit for having DeShaun Watson and still thinks SF is starting Hoyer or Beathard. But it’s a catch-22. In this instance, the system is too slow to react to changes, but there are just as many situations where a subjective line would overreacting to recent results (such as NE’s four games of bad defense to start the year).

    • Tom

      Exactly correct. Although I’ve “shed” as much Deshaun Watson as I can (recent games are given more weight), it’s still there, and yeah, The Machine just can’t figure out that Jimmy G. is better (or worse, etc.) than those other two dudes. But there’s other things going on as well I suppose…I could just be flat out wrong and not looking at the right indicators, etc.

      In any event, that was my picks of the week, and I didn’t get it…as I said, I didn’t have much of a feel for that game anyway.