2017 WEEK 11 PICKS, RANKINGS

Boy, was I feeling great on Sunday before the afternoon slate of games. I caught the back-door cover on the Thursday night Seattle/Arizona game (SEA -6.5), and then won 5 out of the 8 morning games. Sitting at 6-3, I was thinking, “All I’ve got to do is win two games, and I’ll be above 0.500”. But it was not to be: I picked up the Carolina/Miami game, but lost the other four, leaving me at an even 7-7. No time to recap this week, so let’s move on.

Where I’m at:

All Picks: 79-66, 54.5%
ESPN Leaderboard Rank: 7342, 96%
Super Hot Sizzling Picks: 14-13 (51.8%)
Bankroll: +$64 (betting $11 on every game)

WEEK 11 PICKS

DayDateAwayHomeMy
Spread
Vegas
Spread
ATS
Pick
Pred
Score
Thu11/16/17TENPIT-9-7.5PIT16-25
Sun11/19/17DETCHI+2+3.5CHI20-18
Sun11/19/17JAXCLE+11+7.5JAX23-12
Sun11/19/17BALGNB-2+2.5GNB22-24
Sun11/19/17KANNYG+7+10.5NYG27-20
Sun11/19/17LARMIN-1-2.5LAR23-24
Sun11/19/17WASNOR-9-7.5NOR20-29
Sun11/19/17ARIHOU-3+1.5HOU20-23
Sun11/19/17TAMMIA+1-2.5TAM19-18
Sun11/19/17BUFSDG-5-4.5SDG18-23
Sun11/19/17CINDEN+1-2.5CIN15-14
Sun11/19/17NWEOAK+9+6.5NWE28-19
Sun11/19/17PHIDAL+1+3.5DAL27-26
Mon11/20/17ATLSEA+1-3.5ATL20-19

Looks like I’m taking the favorites again on some big spreads. Not happy about that, especially since a lot of big-spread favorites hit last week (Lions -11.5, Rams -11.5, Panthers -9.5 and Patriots -7.5) and it doesn’t seem likely that would happen two weeks in a row. We’ll see.

BIG NEWS: if you’ve followed my posts, you know that every week I fade the Rams and take the Redskins. Well, The Machine has finally caught on to the fact that the Rams are really good, and so, for the first time all season, I’m picking them to cover (against the Vikings). As far as Washington goes, I still think they’re a good team (and I don’t regret taking them to cover against the Vikings last week), but they’re no match for New Orleans (it’s almost guaranteed now that the Rams won’t cover and the Redskins will).

SUPER HOT SIZZLING PICKS OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Seattle, Seahawks by 3.5
My ATS pick: Falcons

The Machine has been high on the Falcons all year, even though they’ve struggled a bit, so I wasn’t surprised to see that it likes Atlanta here. We know Seattle can be tough at home, but I think Atlanta wins a close one: Falcons 20, Seahawks 19.

Baltimore at Green Bay, Ravens by 2.5
My ATS pick: Packers

There are some spreads that really have me scratching my head and this is one of them. Is Packers backup QB Brett Hundley really that bad? What would this spread be if Rodgers was playing? Packers -7.5? Just seems like too big of a swing to me. I say this every week about certain games, but aren’t these two teams about equal? Why would the visitor be favored? OK, enough questions. Green Bay wins this game in Lambeau: Packers 24, Ravens 22.

Arizona at Houston, Cardinals by 1.5
My ATS pick: Texans

Top pick of the week. Again, it looks to me like these two teams are about equal: I’ve got Houston as a Tier 6 team and Arizona at Tier 7. I checked Football Outsiders to see if I’m in the ball park, and they’ve got Houston ranked 17th in DVOA Team Efficiency and Arizona at 26th. Now, I’m thinking this still includes Texans games with breakout QB Deshaun Watson, but I don’t think we drop the Texans 9 spots without him. Houston is the better team and they win at home: Texans 23, Cardinals 20.

RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10

RkTeamMcD
SRS
Tier
1NOR8.82
2NWE8.82
3PHI5.93
4LAR5.23
5PIT4.83
6JAX4.73
7ATL4.64
8DAL3.64
9MIN3.24
10KAN3.14
11CAR2.84
12WAS2.15
13DET2.05
14GNB1.35
15SEA1.15
16CIN0.45
17HOU-0.26
18SDG-1.06
19BAL-1.46
20TEN-2.06
21TAM-2.06
22CHI-2.36
23DEN-2.67
24BUF-3.27
25ARI-3.67
26OAK-3.77
27NYG-5.18
28NYJ-5.68
29IND-5.88
30SFO-7.39
31MIA-7.99
32CLE-8.99

Have a good week all!

 

  • Adam

    What do you like about the Falcons to pick them as an outright winner in Seattle? I don’t trust ATL on the road, and their big win last week felt like kind of a fluke because of Dallas’ backup left tackles. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks win by 7-10 points.

    I’m 100% with you on BAL/GB. These two seems feel like equals, and GB has a strong home field advantage. Even if Hundley is that bad, Flacco is arguably even worse! I don’t think Vegas or the general public realizes just how god awful Joe Flacco has been in recent years. I see this as a 17-14 slugfest type of game.

    I think ARI/HOU should be a pick `em. The Texans offense is much worse without Watson, and their defense is injured and inconsistent. Then again, the Cards are profoundly mediocre in all respects, but I still think they’re better than HOU on a neutral field.

    Why does The Machine love the Jags so much this week? IMO this feels like the trappiest of trap games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to a late field goal in the fourth quarter. I still like the Jags to win, but only by 3-6 points.

  • Tom

    Adam – well, I obviously don’t do a good job monitoring the comments! OK, the week is over, but it’s still worth discussing this.

    1. Even though Atlanta won, I agree with what you said. Going in to the game, the Falcons were 2-2 on the road, which isn’t horrible, but Seattle is a tough place to play, and so that was an issue. Picking the Falcons as outright winners is just a function of my spreadsheets; meaning, if it says that the Falcons will win by 0.1 (which, of course, is ridiculous), than it means I pick them to win. Overall, I just have them ranked higher than Seattle by about 3.5 points, and I took off another half point for Richard Sherman being out. The game was a pick’em, so my spreadsheet took the underdog.

    2. Well, looks like we were both wrong about the BAL/GNB game. The Ravens are just a mystery to me…think about this: the defense has three shutouts, which is really, really good. But in there other 7 games, they’ve given up an average of 23.4 points. That’s average, but not what you’d expect from a team that has pitched three shutouts! By comparison, the Jaguars have allowed about 14 points in their 9 non-shutout games. Haven’t watched this game yet, but from looking at Hundley’s numbers (3 INT, lost fumble, 6 sacks, 1.4 ANY/A), it seems he had a rough day.

    3. For HOU/ARI, just another game where it looks like the two teams are about the same. I mean, one might be slightly better than the other (I have Houston as being better, but whatever), so why not take the home team? That’s what my spreadsheet told me to do anyway. Of course, that way of thinking (two equal teams, take home) didn’t really work out for the Green Bay game, so who knows?

    4. You’re right, that Browns/Jaguars game probably was a trap game, but the Browns are so Browns-y that it just didn’t happen. I should have lost that game, as the Browns had the ball with 1:24 left, on their own 20, up 13-7. That game should have ended with a stalled drive and the Jags win by 6 just as you said. But nope…the Browns just Brownsed it up, sticking it to anyone who had the courage to bet on them! As far as why The Machine likes the Jags, it’s really more a matter of how bad the Browns are. I have the Jags as a really good above-average team, with an SRS of 4.7 (PFR has them much higher at 8.9) and the Browns as the worst team in the league at -8.9. So that’s where that comes from. But in any event, I should have lost this game.

    Probably no point in reading this now, but I thought I should answer anyway!

  • Pingback: 2017 WEEK 12 PICKS - The GridFe()