2017 WEEK 11 PICKS, RANKINGS

Boy, was I feeling great on Sunday before the afternoon slate of games. I caught the back-door cover on the Thursday night Seattle/Arizona game (SEA -6.5), and then won 5 out of the 8 morning games. Sitting at 6-3, I was thinking, “All I’ve got to do is win two games, and I’ll be above 0.500”. But it was not to be: I picked up the Carolina/Miami game, but lost the other four, leaving me at an even 7-7. No time to recap this week, so let’s move on.

Where I’m at:

All Picks: 79-66, 54.5%
ESPN Leaderboard Rank: 7342, 96%
Super Hot Sizzling Picks: 14-13 (51.8%)
Bankroll: +$64 (betting $11 on every game)

WEEK 11 PICKS

DayDateAwayHomeMy
Spread
Vegas
Spread
ATS
Pick
Pred
Score
Thu11/16/17TENPIT-9-7.5PIT16-25
Sun11/19/17DETCHI+2+3.5CHI20-18
Sun11/19/17JAXCLE+11+7.5JAX23-12
Sun11/19/17BALGNB-2+2.5GNB22-24
Sun11/19/17KANNYG+7+10.5NYG27-20
Sun11/19/17LARMIN-1-2.5LAR23-24
Sun11/19/17WASNOR-9-7.5NOR20-29
Sun11/19/17ARIHOU-3+1.5HOU20-23
Sun11/19/17TAMMIA+1-2.5TAM19-18
Sun11/19/17BUFSDG-5-4.5SDG18-23
Sun11/19/17CINDEN+1-2.5CIN15-14
Sun11/19/17NWEOAK+9+6.5NWE28-19
Sun11/19/17PHIDAL+1+3.5DAL27-26
Mon11/20/17ATLSEA+1-3.5ATL20-19

Looks like I’m taking the favorites again on some big spreads. Not happy about that, especially since a lot of big-spread favorites hit last week (Lions -11.5, Rams -11.5, Panthers -9.5 and Patriots -7.5) and it doesn’t seem likely that would happen two weeks in a row. We’ll see.

BIG NEWS: if you’ve followed my posts, you know that every week I fade the Rams and take the Redskins. Well, The Machine has finally caught on to the fact that the Rams are really good, and so, for the first time all season, I’m picking them to cover (against the Vikings). As far as Washington goes, I still think they’re a good team (and I don’t regret taking them to cover against the Vikings last week), but they’re no match for New Orleans (it’s almost guaranteed now that the Rams won’t cover and the Redskins will).

SUPER HOT SIZZLING PICKS OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at Seattle, Seahawks by 3.5
My ATS pick: Falcons

The Machine has been high on the Falcons all year, even though they’ve struggled a bit, so I wasn’t surprised to see that it likes Atlanta here. We know Seattle can be tough at home, but I think Atlanta wins a close one: Falcons 20, Seahawks 19.

Baltimore at Green Bay, Ravens by 2.5
My ATS pick: Packers

There are some spreads that really have me scratching my head and this is one of them. Is Packers backup QB Brett Hundley really that bad? What would this spread be if Rodgers was playing? Packers -7.5? Just seems like too big of a swing to me. I say this every week about certain games, but aren’t these two teams about equal? Why would the visitor be favored? OK, enough questions. Green Bay wins this game in Lambeau: Packers 24, Ravens 22.

Arizona at Houston, Cardinals by 1.5
My ATS pick: Texans

Top pick of the week. Again, it looks to me like these two teams are about equal: I’ve got Houston as a Tier 6 team and Arizona at Tier 7. I checked Football Outsiders to see if I’m in the ball park, and they’ve got Houston ranked 17th in DVOA Team Efficiency and Arizona at 26th. Now, I’m thinking this still includes Texans games with breakout QB Deshaun Watson, but I don’t think we drop the Texans 9 spots without him. Houston is the better team and they win at home: Texans 23, Cardinals 20.

RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 10

RkTeamMcD
SRS
Tier
1NOR8.82
2NWE8.82
3PHI5.93
4LAR5.23
5PIT4.83
6JAX4.73
7ATL4.64
8DAL3.64
9MIN3.24
10KAN3.14
11CAR2.84
12WAS2.15
13DET2.05
14GNB1.35
15SEA1.15
16CIN0.45
17HOU-0.26
18SDG-1.06
19BAL-1.46
20TEN-2.06
21TAM-2.06
22CHI-2.36
23DEN-2.67
24BUF-3.27
25ARI-3.67
26OAK-3.77
27NYG-5.18
28NYJ-5.68
29IND-5.88
30SFO-7.39
31MIA-7.99
32CLE-8.99

Have a good week all!