Positive Yards Per Attempt: Update

If I could only share one thing from my time doing football analytics, it would be the following principle: Positive plays carry more weight than negative plays in determining the winner of a football game. I’ve already written a couple of articles on this subject and hope to further the cause with this update.

Overview

For those of you who don’t feel like reading the previous two posts, I’ll give you the basic gist. Since passing has a far greater impact on winning than running, I’ve focused my research on quarterbacks, but the principle applies to the entire offense (defense, not so sure). Despite everyone constantly harping on turnover avoidance, a potent passing offense is usually able to overcome giveaways. Conversely, avoiding turnovers is normally not enough to overcome a weak passing game. Furthermore, turnovers are highly random and situation dependent, so it follows that turnovers are a very poor method of gauging quarterback performance. Even though sacks are

I’m about to kick butt.

largely the quarterback’s fault, they are also very context dependent and only contribute a small amount in determining game outcomes. More importantly, the majority of signal callers trade sacks for interceptions or vice versa, so it’s no really fair to include one but not the other.

Here is my new formula for Positive Yards Per Attempt (PY/A):

(Air Yards + YAC / 2 + Passing First Downs x 10 + Passing Touchdowns x 10) / Pass Attempts

This metric captures the frequency and magnitude of a quarterback’s positive plays while ignoring the negative ones (sacks and interceptions). I only give half credit for YAC because I think it’s more a function of the receivers and system than the QB, and I bump the traditional first down bonus up to 10 yards (it’s usually nine yards) because I consider first downs very important and I prefer the nice, even number.

Results

I have the necessary data to calculate PY/A back to 1992. Using the standard cutoff of 224 attempts to qualify, this sample yields exactly 800 quarterback seasons. The table is default sorted by Value, which equals (PY/A – League PY/A) x attempts. If you’d prefer to ignore volume, Relative is the quarterback’s PY/A compared to league average. Win % represents the team’s win percentage in games started by the QB.

QuarterbackYearTeamValuePY/ALgPY/ARelativeAttWin %
Peyton Manning2004IND181713.099.433.6649775%
Kurt Warner2001STL160311.888.942.9454688%
Matt Ryan2016ATL146812.209.452.7553469%
Peyton Manning2013DEN146811.509.272.2365981%
Tom Brady2007NWE138911.599.182.40578100%
Aaron Rodgers2011GNB137712.139.392.7450293%
Carson Palmer2015ARI135812.009.472.5353781%
Peyton Manning2006IND132911.429.042.3955775%
Drew Brees2011NOR129111.369.391.9665781%
Kurt Warner2000STL128012.618.923.6934773%
Daunte Culpepper2000MIN128011.628.922.7047469%
Kurt Warner1999STL123111.348.872.4749981%
Chris Chandler1998ATL122112.839.103.7332793%
Philip Rivers2010SDG120111.419.192.2254156%
Peyton Manning2005IND118311.659.042.6145388%
Steve Young1993SFO118111.488.932.5646263%
Philip Rivers2009SDG116211.509.112.3948681%
Tom Brady2011NWE114511.279.391.8761181%
Drew Brees2009NOR112611.309.112.1951487%
Randall Cunningham1998MIN110511.709.102.6042593%
Tony Romo2007DAL108711.279.182.0952081%
Steve Young1994SFO107011.298.972.3246181%
Steve McNair2003TEN106811.478.802.6740071%
Ben Roethlisberger2009PIT102211.139.112.0250660%
Tony Romo2014DAL100211.729.422.3043580%
Philip Rivers2008SDG99211.179.092.0747850%
Daunte Culpepper2004MIN99111.249.431.8154850%
Peyton Manning2000IND98910.658.921.7357163%
Aaron Rodgers2014GNB95911.269.421.8452075%
Peyton Manning2009IND95210.789.111.6757188%
Tony Romo2006DAL95111.869.042.8233760%
Steve Young1998SFO94110.929.101.8251773%
Mark Brunell1996JAX93910.598.901.6955756%
Matt Schaub2009HOU93910.729.111.6158356%
Steve Young1992SFO92311.449.152.3040288%
Philip Rivers2013SDG91910.969.271.6954456%
Peyton Manning2007IND90010.939.181.7551581%
Trent Green2004KAN90011.059.431.6255644%
Peyton Manning2012DEN89210.869.331.5358381%
Drew Brees2012NOR88110.659.331.3267044%
Ben Roethlisberger2007PIT86711.339.182.1540467%
Matt Hasselbeck2005SEA85910.959.041.9144981%
Brett Favre1995GNB85510.529.021.5057069%
Carson Palmer2006CIN84010.659.041.6152050%
Ben Roethlisberger2004PIT82912.249.432.81295100%
Steve Beuerlein1999CAR82710.328.871.4557150%
Carson Palmer2005CIN82110.659.041.6150969%
Jeff George1999MIN81311.348.872.4732980%
Scott Mitchell1995DET79610.389.021.3758363%
Brett Favre2009MIN79010.609.111.4953175%
Brett Favre1997GNB78310.438.911.5351381%
Steve McNair2001TEN77310.738.941.7943147%
Nick Foles2013PHI77211.709.272.4331780%
Peyton Manning1999IND76610.318.871.4453381%
Eli Manning2011NYG76410.699.391.3058956%
Ben Roethlisberger2014PIT76010.679.421.2560869%
Drew Brees2008NOR75510.289.091.1963550%
Peyton Manning2003IND75110.128.801.3356675%
Russell Wilson2015SEA75111.029.471.5548363%
Ben Roethlisberger2005PIT75011.849.042.8026875%
Peyton Manning2014DEN73710.659.421.2359775%
Aaron Rodgers2010GNB72810.729.191.5347567%
Vinny Testaverde1996BAL72310.228.901.3254925%
Tom Brady2004NWE71710.949.431.5147488%
Elvis Grbac2000KAN71710.238.921.3154747%
Cam Newton2015CAR71510.929.471.4549594%
Chad Pennington2002NYJ71410.708.911.7939967%
John Elway1998DEN71211.109.102.0035683%
Ben Roethlisberger2015PIT71210.999.471.5246964%
Kirk Cousins2016WAS71010.629.451.1760653%
Steve Young1997SFO70810.898.911.9935680%
Jim Kelly1992BUF69410.659.151.5046269%
Aaron Rodgers2009GNB69310.399.111.2854169%
Trent Green2000STL69011.808.922.8824040%
Philip Rivers2011SDG68810.579.391.1858250%
Drew Brees2013NOR67910.319.271.0465069%
Matt Ryan2012ATL67710.439.331.1061581%
Brian Griese2000DEN66910.918.921.9933670%
Troy Aikman1993DAL66110.618.931.6939279%
Dan Marino1995MIA65310.379.021.3548264%
Vinny Testaverde1998NYJ65110.649.101.5542192%
Drew Brees2016NOR65110.429.450.9767344%
Trent Green2003KAN64010.028.801.2252381%
Troy Aikman1995DAL63910.509.021.4843275%
Drew Brees2006NOR63610.199.041.1555463%
Donovan McNabb2004PHI63410.789.431.3546987%
Marc Bulger2004STL63210.749.431.3048557%
Ben Roethlisberger2011PIT63010.629.391.2351373%
Erik Kramer1995CHI62710.229.021.2052256%
Tom Brady2010NWE62510.469.191.2749288%
Jeff Garcia2000SFO62510.048.921.1156138%
Brett Favre2001GNB61710.158.941.2151075%
Andrew Luck2016IND61710.589.451.1354553%
Trent Green2002KAN61510.228.911.3147050%
Tony Romo2011DAL61410.579.391.1852250%
Peyton Manning2001IND61210.068.941.1254738%
Daunte Culpepper2003MIN61210.148.801.3545450%
Dak Prescott2016DAL61210.789.451.3345981%
Tom Brady2012NWE60710.289.330.9563775%
Russell Wilson2013SEA59810.749.271.4740781%
Tom Brady2009NWE59410.169.111.0556563%
Tony Romo2009DAL59210.199.111.0855069%
Eli Manning2009NYG59110.279.111.1650950%
Brett Favre1998GNB58910.179.101.0755169%
Chris Chandler1997ATL58410.618.911.7134250%
Andy Dalton2015CIN58110.989.471.5038677%
Marc Bulger2003STL5819.898.801.0953280%
Aaron Rodgers2012GNB57710.389.331.0555269%
Ben Roethlisberger2010PIT57110.669.191.4738975%
Andrew Luck2014IND56710.349.420.9261669%
Jeff Hostetler1993RAI56610.288.931.3541967%
Kurt Warner2007ARI56110.439.181.2445145%
Jake Delhomme2008CAR55810.449.091.3541475%
Kurt Warner2008ARI55810.039.090.9359856%
Tom Brady2005NWE55710.099.041.0553063%
Matt Hasselbeck2003SEA5579.888.801.0951363%
Steve Beuerlein1993PHO55510.258.931.3341843%
Drew Brees2014NOR54710.259.420.8365944%
Russell Wilson2012SEA54310.719.331.3839369%
Chad Pennington2008MIA54110.239.091.1447669%
Brett Favre2004GNB53910.439.431.0054063%
Tommy Maddox2002PIT53610.338.911.4237768%
Marc Bulger2005STL53210.899.041.8528725%
Brett Favre1996GNB5319.888.900.9854381%
Trent Green2005KAN52410.079.041.0350763%
Rich Gannon2002OAK5249.758.910.8561869%
Matt Ryan2008ATL52110.299.091.2043469%
Rich Gannon1999OAK5169.878.871.0051550%
Peyton Manning2008IND51110.029.090.9255575%
Chris Chandler1999ATL50810.538.871.6530733%
Brad Johnson1999WAS5089.858.870.9851963%
Tom Brady2016NWE50510.629.451.1743292%
Doug Flutie1998BUF50210.529.101.4235470%
Mark Brunell1997JAX50210.068.911.1543564%
Dan Marino1992MIA49410.049.150.8955469%
Peyton Manning2002IND4949.748.910.8459163%
Drew Bledsoe1998NWE49010.129.101.0248157%
Jim Harbaugh1995IND48810.579.021.5531458%
Matt Schaub2010HOU48710.049.190.8557438%
David Garrard2007JAX48110.669.181.4832575%
Rich Gannon2000OAK4789.938.921.0147375%
Dan Marino1994MIA4749.748.970.7761563%
Robert Griffin2012WAS47010.539.331.2039360%
Ben Roethlisberger2006PIT46510.039.040.9946947%
Jeff George1997OAK4639.798.910.8952125%
Matt Schaub2008HOU46210.319.091.2238055%
Jameis Winston2016TAM45810.269.450.8156756%
Eli Manning2010NYG45610.049.190.8553963%
Jay Cutler2008DEN4539.839.090.7461650%
Matthew Stafford2011DET45210.079.390.6866363%
Phil Simms1993NYG44910.058.931.1240069%
Jameis Winston2015TAM44810.319.470.8453538%
Kerry Collins2002NYG4459.728.910.8254563%
Carson Palmer2011OAK44110.749.391.3532844%
Aaron Rodgers2008GNB4379.919.090.8253638%
Aaron Rodgers2013GNB43710.779.271.5129067%
Bobby Hebert1992NOR43510.189.151.0342275%
Matt Schaub2011HOU43410.889.391.4929270%
Tony Romo2012DAL4309.999.330.6664850%
Tyrod Taylor2015BUF42810.609.471.1338054%
Brett Favre2007GNB4279.989.180.8053581%
Damon Huard2006KAN42610.789.041.7524463%
Kurt Warner2009ARI4249.949.110.8351367%
Drew Bledsoe2002BUF4249.608.910.7061050%
Jake Plummer2004DEN42110.249.430.8152163%
Drew Bledsoe2005DAL4199.889.040.8449956%
Jake Delhomme2004CAR41510.219.430.7853344%
Carson Palmer2007CIN4149.909.180.7257544%
Jake Delhomme2005CAR4139.999.040.9543569%
Steve Young1996SFO41110.208.901.3031675%
Philip Rivers2006SDG4039.919.040.8846088%
Donovan McNabb2006PHI40310.319.041.2731650%
Brett Favre2003GNB4019.658.800.8547163%
Mark Brunell2000JAX4019.718.920.7851244%
Gus Frerotte1996WAS3999.758.900.8547056%
Kirk Cousins2015WAS39910.219.470.7454356%
Steve McNair2002TEN3979.718.910.8149269%
Michael Vick2010PHI39110.249.191.0537273%
John Elway1997DEN3899.688.910.7750275%
Drew Brees2004SDG38710.409.430.9740073%
Matt Hasselbeck2002SEA3859.838.910.9241950%
Jim Kelly1993BUF3859.748.930.8247075%
Vinny Testaverde1995CLE3829.999.020.9739233%
Chris Chandler2001ATL3809.988.941.0436543%
Troy Aikman1992DAL3769.949.150.7947381%
Jon Kitna2003CIN3749.518.800.7252050%
Vinny Testaverde1993CLE37110.548.931.6123050%
John Elway1996DEN3709.698.900.7946687%
Marc Bulger2006STL3649.669.040.6258850%
Troy Aikman1994DAL3649.988.971.0136171%
Derek Anderson2007CLE3629.879.180.6952767%
Jay Cutler2010CHI36110.039.190.8443267%
John Elway1995DEN3619.689.020.6754250%
Mark Brunell2001JAX3589.708.940.7647340%
Jake Plummer2003DEN3539.968.801.1730282%
Jay Cutler2007DEN3529.949.180.7546744%
Jeff George1995ATL3519.659.020.6355756%
Mark Brunell1998JAX34510.079.100.9735477%
Donovan McNabb2009PHI3449.899.110.7844371%
Josh McCown2013CHI34310.809.271.5322460%
Jake Plummer1997ARI34210.068.911.1629633%
Drew Brees2005SDG3429.729.040.6850056%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2014HOU34110.519.421.0931250%
Philip Rivers2016SDG33910.049.450.5957831%
Michael Vick2011PHI33910.199.390.8042354%
Steve Beuerlein1998CAR33810.089.100.9934333%
Marcus Mariota2016TEN33810.209.450.7545153%
Jeff George1994ATL3389.618.970.6452444%
Eli Manning2012NYG3369.969.330.6353656%
Chad Pennington2003NYJ3369.938.801.1329744%
Drew Bledsoe1999NWE3359.498.870.6253950%
John Elway1993DEN3349.538.930.6155156%
Marcus Mariota2015TEN33210.379.470.9037025%
Drew Brees2015NOR32910.009.470.5262747%
Tony Romo2008DAL3269.829.090.7345062%
Jeff Garcia2001SFO3269.598.940.6550475%
Carson Palmer2013ARI3259.849.270.5757263%
Colin Kaepernick2013SFO32210.049.270.7741675%
Philip Rivers2014SDG3219.989.420.5657056%
Bobby Hebert1993ATL3219.678.930.7543033%
Stan Humphries1995SDG3209.699.020.6747860%
Peyton Manning2010IND3189.669.190.4767963%
Matt Ryan2015ATL3139.989.470.5161450%
Warren Moon1995MIN3139.539.020.5260650%
Jim Everett1995NOR3129.579.020.5556744%
Russell Wilson2016SEA31110.029.450.5754666%
Tom Brady2015NWE3119.979.470.5062475%
Matt Ryan2011ATL3099.949.390.5556663%
Dan Marino1996MIA3089.738.900.8337354%
Brian Griese2002DEN3069.618.910.7043662%
Brian Griese2004TAM30610.349.430.9133640%
Warren Moon1992HOU30610.039.150.8834660%
Jeff Hostetler1994RAI3039.638.970.6745556%
Blake Bortles2015JAX3009.979.470.4960631%
Mark Brunell1999JAX3009.558.870.6844187%
Jon Kitna1999SEA2999.488.870.6049553%
Jim Everett1994NOR2979.528.970.5554044%
Cam Newton2012CAR2909.939.330.6048544%
David Garrard2010JAX2899.989.190.7936657%
Joe Flacco2010BAL2899.789.190.5948975%
Steve Beuerlein2000CAR2889.468.920.5453344%
Rich Gannon2001OAK2839.468.940.5154963%
Matt Ryan2014ATL2829.879.420.4562838%
Ben Roethlisberger2016PIT2769.999.450.5450971%
Ty Detmer1996PHI2759.588.900.6940164%
Jon Kitna2007DET2719.669.180.4856144%
Sage Rosenfels2007HOU27010.319.181.1224080%
Scott Mitchell1993MIA26910.088.931.1623343%
Stan Humphries1994SDG2689.568.970.5945373%
Scott Mitchell1996DET2659.508.900.6143729%
Joe Montana1993KAN2649.818.930.8829873%
Aaron Rodgers2016GNB2639.889.450.4361063%
Jim Kelly1996BUF2609.598.900.6937962%
Jake Plummer2005DEN2609.619.040.5745681%
Jay Cutler2013CHI25910.009.270.7335545%
Jay Fiedler2001MIA2589.518.940.5745069%
Joe Flacco2009BAL2529.619.110.5049956%
Matt Hasselbeck2007SEA2479.629.180.4456263%
Drew Bledsoe1997NWE2459.378.910.4752263%
Matt Schaub2007HOU24410.039.180.8528936%
Craig Erickson1994TAM2409.578.970.6039943%
Jim Kelly1994BUF2399.508.970.5344850%
Brian Hoyer2014CLE2379.969.420.5443854%
Warren Moon1997SEA2339.358.910.4452850%
Matt Schaub2012HOU2339.769.330.4354475%
Warren Moon1993HOU2329.378.930.4552071%
Steve McNair2000TEN2279.508.920.5739680%
Gus Frerotte2000DEN2259.898.920.9723267%
Ben Roethlisberger2012PIT2249.839.330.5044954%
Troy Aikman1998DAL2219.809.100.7031564%
Aaron Brooks2003NOR2219.228.800.4351850%
Trent Green2001KAN2219.368.940.4252338%
Kyle Orton2010DEN2189.639.190.4449823%
Jim Everett1992RAM2189.619.150.4647538%
Drew Brees2010NOR2149.529.190.3365869%
Matt Hasselbeck2004SEA2139.889.430.4547450%
Mark Sanchez2014PHI21210.109.420.6830950%
Daunte Culpepper2002MIN2079.298.910.3854938%
Carson Palmer2016ARI2079.809.450.3559743%
Brad Johnson1996MIN2029.558.900.6531163%
Kurt Warner2005ARI2019.589.040.5437520%
Kerry Collins2000NYG2009.308.920.3852975%
Tony Romo2013DAL1999.649.270.3753553%
Jon Kitna2006DET1969.379.040.3359619%
David Carr2004HOU1969.859.430.4246644%
Drew Bledsoe1994NWE1969.258.970.2869163%
Vinny Testaverde1992TAM1949.699.150.5435836%
Jay Fiedler2002MIA1939.578.910.6629270%
Neil O'Donnell1992PIT1939.769.150.6231375%
Jeff Hostetler1995OAK1919.699.020.6728664%
Eli Manning2014NYG1889.739.420.3160138%
Josh Freeman2010TAM1879.599.190.4047463%
Tom Brady2014NWE1839.739.420.3158275%
Dan Marino1997MIA1809.238.910.3354856%
Cody Carlson1992HOU1809.949.150.7922767%
Dave Krieg1992KAN1789.589.150.4341363%
Dave Brown1994NYG1769.478.970.5035060%
Steve DeBerg19932TM1759.708.930.7722740%
Eli Manning2008NYG1729.459.090.3647975%
Michael Vick2002ATL1689.318.910.4042157%
Matt Moore2011MIA1689.879.390.4834740%
Daunte Culpepper2001MIN1639.398.940.4536636%
Andy Dalton2016CIN1639.749.450.2956341%
Boomer Esiason1993NYJ1629.278.930.3447350%
Byron Leftwich2005JAX1619.579.040.5330273%
Jake Delhomme2003CAR1609.158.800.3644967%
Kordell Stewart1997PIT1599.278.910.3644069%
Tom Brady2003NWE1559.098.800.2952788%
Cam Newton2011CAR1549.699.390.3051738%
Andy Dalton2013CIN1519.539.270.2658669%
Jake Plummer2001ARI1519.238.940.2952544%
Steve Young1995SFO1509.359.020.3444773%
Brian Hoyer2015HOU1479.879.470.4036956%
Warren Moon1994MIN1459.218.970.2460160%
Jeff Garcia2003SFO1449.168.800.3739238%
Neil O'Donnell1995PIT1439.369.020.3441675%
Ben Roethlisberger2008PIT1429.409.090.3046975%
Doug Flutie2000BUF1329.508.920.5723180%
Kordell Stewart2001PIT1319.248.940.3044281%
Mike Tomczak1996PIT1269.218.900.3240167%
Scott Mitchell1997DET1219.148.910.2450956%
Chad Pennington2004NYJ1209.769.430.3237062%
Bobby Hoying1997PHI1209.448.910.5322542%
Frank Reich1996NYJ1189.268.900.3633114%
Billy Joe Tolliver1999NOR1169.308.870.4326814%
Vince Young2009TEN1139.559.110.4425980%
Charlie Batch1999DET1139.298.870.4227060%
Matt Hasselbeck2006SEA1139.349.040.3037158%
Stan Humphries1992SDG1109.399.150.2445473%
Gus Frerotte1999DET1109.258.870.3828833%
Jeff Blake2002BAL1049.268.910.3529540%
Jon Kitna2002CIN1049.138.910.2247317%
Jay Cutler2015CHI1019.689.470.2148340%
Brett Favre2002GNB1009.098.910.1855175%
Chris Chandler1995HOU999.309.020.2835638%
Shaun Hill2008SFO999.449.090.3428863%
Jay Fiedler2003MIA959.108.800.3031464%
Trent Edwards2008BUF959.359.090.2537450%
Brad Johnson2003TAM938.968.800.1657044%
Rob Johnson2000BUF929.228.920.3030636%
Elvis Grbac1999KAN909.058.870.1849956%
Tommy Maddox2003PIT908.978.800.1751938%
Charlie Batch1998DET899.399.100.2930342%
Josh Freeman2012TAM899.499.330.1655844%
Gus Frerotte1995WAS849.239.020.2139627%
Jeff Garcia2007TAM849.449.180.2632762%
Trent Dilfer1997TAM839.128.910.2238663%
Ryan Tannehill2016MIA829.669.450.2138962%
Kerry Collins1999NYG819.128.870.2433129%
Matt Cassel2010KAN809.379.190.1845067%
Jeff Garcia1999SFO799.088.870.2137520%
Aaron Brooks2001NOR799.088.940.1455844%
Matthew Stafford2013DET789.399.270.1263444%
Ben Roethlisberger2013PIT779.409.270.1358450%
Jon Kitna2010DAL779.439.190.2431844%
Troy Aikman1996DAL769.068.900.1646567%
Jay Cutler2012CHI759.509.330.1743467%
Joe Flacco2014BAL719.559.420.1355463%
Kevin Kolb2011ARI689.669.390.2725333%
Brad Johnson1997MIN689.068.910.1545262%
Chris Miller1992ATL669.419.150.2625338%
Randall Cunningham1992PHI619.309.150.1638467%
Trent Green1998WAS599.219.100.1250943%
Erik Kramer1998CHI589.339.100.2325038%
Brett Favre1999GNB588.978.870.1059550%
Cam Newton2013CAR579.399.270.1247375%
Jim Harbaugh1992CHI569.309.150.1635838%
Gus Frerotte1997WAS539.048.910.1340250%
David Garrard2006JAX519.259.040.2124150%
Doug Flutie1999BUF488.978.870.1047867%
Byron Leftwich2003JAX458.908.800.1141838%
Boomer Esiason1996ARI459.038.900.1333938%
Carson Palmer2010CIN459.279.190.0858625%
Carson Palmer2014ARI439.619.420.19224100%
Chris Chandler1996HOU419.038.900.1332050%
Billy Volek2004TEN399.549.430.1135725%
Jeff Garcia2008TAM389.209.090.1037655%
Gus Frerotte2008MIN389.229.090.1330173%
Rodney Peete2002CAR369.008.910.1038150%
Tony Banks1996STL369.008.900.1036838%
Jay Cutler2011CHI359.509.390.1131470%
Austin Davis2014STL339.539.420.1128438%
Vinny Testaverde2004DAL309.499.430.0649533%
Russell Wilson2014SEA289.489.420.0645275%
Aaron Brooks2002NOR288.968.910.0552856%
Dan Marino1999MIA248.948.870.0736945%
Tom Brady2001NWE239.008.940.0641379%
John Elway1994DEN229.018.970.0449450%
Charlie Batch2001DET229.018.940.063410%
Kerry Collins1996CAR208.958.900.0636475%
Matt Ryan2010ATL199.229.190.0357181%
Chad Pennington2007NYJ179.259.180.0726013%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2010BUF179.239.190.0444131%
Ryan Tannehill2014MIA169.449.420.0359050%
Kyle Orton20112TM149.459.390.0625238%
J.P. Losman2006BUF119.069.040.0342944%
Donovan McNabb2008PHI109.119.090.0257159%
Jim Harbaugh1997IND108.948.910.0330918%
Matthew Stafford2016DET99.479.450.0159456%
Chad Pennington2006NYJ69.059.040.0148563%
Brett Favre1994GNB58.988.970.0158256%
Kerry Collins2010TEN59.219.190.0227829%
Matthew Stafford2015DET49.489.470.0159244%
Jeff Blake1994CIN38.988.970.0130633%
Trent Dilfer2000BAL38.938.920.0122688%
Tom Brady2006NWE29.049.040.0051675%
Scott Mitchell1994DET28.978.970.0124644%
Philip Rivers2007SDG19.189.180.0046069%
Aaron Brooks2005NOR-29.049.040.0043123%
Rodney Peete1993DET-58.908.93-0.0225260%
Chris Chandler1992PHO-69.139.15-0.0141331%
Matt Leinart2006ARI-79.029.04-0.0237736%
David Garrard2009JAX-99.099.11-0.0251644%
Shaun King2000TAM-108.908.92-0.0242863%
David Garrard2008JAX-139.079.09-0.0253531%
Donovan McNabb2005PHI-139.009.04-0.0435744%
Mark Brunell2002JAX-168.878.91-0.0441640%
Carson Palmer2009CIN-169.089.11-0.0346663%
Kerry Collins2005OAK-189.019.04-0.0356527%
Jeff Blake1999CIN-198.828.87-0.0538925%
Drew Brees2007NOR-199.159.18-0.0365244%
Jeff Blake1996CIN-208.868.90-0.0454950%
Drew Bledsoe1996NWE-218.878.90-0.0362369%
Jason Campbell2009WAS-219.079.11-0.0450725%
Matt Ryan2009ATL-239.069.11-0.0545164%
Aaron Brooks2004NOR-269.389.43-0.0554250%
Rich Gannon1992MIN-279.059.15-0.1027967%
Matt Cassel2008NWE-289.049.09-0.0551667%
Trent Dilfer1999TAM-288.768.87-0.1124470%
Shaun Hill2014STL-299.299.42-0.1322938%
Mark Sanchez2009NYJ-319.029.11-0.0936453%
Andrew Luck2012IND-319.289.33-0.0562769%
Cam Newton2014CAR-319.359.42-0.0744839%
Tyrod Taylor2016BUF-349.379.45-0.0843647%
Colin Kaepernick2014SFO-359.349.42-0.0747850%
Mark Brunell2005WAS-358.969.04-0.0845460%
Christian Ponder2013MIN-379.129.27-0.1523928%
Jeff Blake2000NOR-378.808.92-0.1230264%
Vince Young2007TEN-389.089.18-0.1038260%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2015NYJ-399.409.47-0.0756263%
Michael Vick2004ATL-419.309.43-0.1332173%
Drew Stanton2014ARI-459.239.42-0.1924063%
Patrick Ramsey2002WAS-488.708.91-0.2122740%
Mike Tomczak1999PIT-488.698.87-0.1825820%
Donald Hollas1998OAK-508.919.10-0.1926067%
Joe Flacco2012BAL-529.239.33-0.1053163%
Brad Johnson2000WAS-538.788.92-0.1436564%
Tom Brady2013NWE-539.189.27-0.0962875%
Brad Johnson2002TAM-548.798.91-0.1245177%
Michael Vick2006ATL-548.909.04-0.1438844%
Kurt Warner2004NYG-549.239.43-0.2027756%
Jay Fiedler2000MIA-558.778.92-0.1535767%
Matthew Stafford2012DET-569.259.33-0.0872725%
Kordell Stewart2000PIT-588.728.92-0.2028964%
Matt Cassel2013MIN-599.049.27-0.2325450%
Chris Chandler2000ATL-608.748.92-0.1833131%
Chris Simms2005TAM-638.849.04-0.2031360%
Mark Rypien1992WAS-649.019.15-0.1347956%
Jake Plummer1998ARI-658.989.10-0.1254756%
Jeff Hostetler1996OAK-678.738.90-0.1740254%
Joe Flacco2008BAL-688.949.09-0.1642869%
Chad Henne2010MIA-699.059.19-0.1449043%
Kellen Clemens2013STL-728.979.27-0.3024244%
Rex Grossman2006CHI-738.899.04-0.1548081%
Robert Griffin2013WAS-749.119.27-0.1645623%
Eli Manning2005NYG-748.919.04-0.1355769%
Tony Banks1999BAL-758.648.87-0.2332060%
Damon Huard2007KAN-768.959.18-0.2333240%
Cam Newton2016CAR-769.309.45-0.1551043%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2013TEN-779.059.27-0.2235033%
Warren Moon1996MIN-788.598.90-0.3124750%
Vinny Testaverde1994CLE-788.768.97-0.2137669%
Eli Manning2015NYG-799.349.47-0.1361838%
Josh McCown2005ARI-808.749.04-0.3027050%
Joe Montana1994KAN-818.808.97-0.1749364%
Doug Flutie2001SDG-848.788.94-0.1652131%
Bobby Hebert1996ATL-848.738.90-0.1748823%
John Elway1992DEN-858.889.15-0.2731667%
Josh McCown2015CLE-859.189.47-0.2929213%
Brock Osweiler2015DEN-879.159.47-0.3227571%
Kerry Collins2001NYG-888.798.94-0.1656844%
Donovan McNabb2007PHI-898.999.18-0.1947357%
Case Keenum2013HOU-898.929.27-0.352530%
Donovan McNabb2003PHI-908.618.80-0.1947875%
Carson Palmer2004CIN-919.229.43-0.2143246%
Stan Humphries1997SDG-918.508.91-0.4122538%
Steve McNair2005TEN-918.859.04-0.1947629%
Alex Van Pelt2001BUF-938.648.94-0.3030725%
Steve McNair2006BAL-938.849.04-0.2046881%
Brian Griese1999DEN-988.668.87-0.2245231%
Kyle Orton2009DEN-998.939.11-0.1854153%
Rick Mirer1995SEA-1028.769.02-0.2639154%
Teddy Bridgewater2014MIN-1049.169.42-0.2640250%
Brett Favre2008NYJ-1058.899.09-0.2052256%
Jason Campbell2010OAK-1068.879.19-0.3232958%
Warren Moon1998SEA-1068.689.10-0.4125840%
Ryan Tannehill2013MIA-1099.089.27-0.1958850%
Steve McNair1997TEN-1108.648.91-0.2641550%
Brett Favre2000GNB-1108.738.92-0.1958056%
Rex Grossman2011WAS-1129.159.39-0.2445838%
Brett Favre1992GNB-1128.919.15-0.2447162%
Mark Brunell1995JAX-1138.699.02-0.3334630%
Ty Detmer1997PHI-1168.438.91-0.4824429%
Kyle Boller2007BAL-1168.769.18-0.4227525%
Doug Johnson2003ATL-1178.318.80-0.4824313%
Michael Vick2005ATL-1188.749.04-0.3038753%
Neil O'Donnell1993PIT-1188.688.93-0.2448660%
Alex Smith2016KAN-1209.219.45-0.2548973%
Trent Dilfer1998TAM-1228.819.10-0.2842950%
Chris Miller1995STL-1228.729.02-0.3040554%
Stan Humphries1996SDG-1228.618.90-0.2941654%
Marc Bulger2007STL-1238.869.18-0.3237817%
Derek Carr2016OAK-1239.239.45-0.2256080%
Chris Miller1994RAM-1248.588.97-0.3931720%
Craig Erickson1993TAM-1248.658.93-0.2745733%
Jeff Blake1995CIN-1268.809.02-0.2256744%
Jason Campbell2007WAS-1268.889.18-0.3041746%
Alex Smith2011SFO-1279.109.39-0.2944581%
Jim Miller2002CHI-1318.498.91-0.4231425%
Jim Kelly1995BUF-1328.739.02-0.2945867%
Stan Humphries1993SDG-1348.518.93-0.4132460%
Trent Dilfer2005CLE-1358.649.04-0.4033336%
Kent Graham1996ARI-1388.398.90-0.5027450%
Trent Dilfer1995TAM-1408.689.02-0.3441544%
Kelly Holcomb2005BUF-1418.439.04-0.6123050%
Eli Manning2013NYG-1439.019.27-0.2655144%
Tony Banks1997STL-1438.618.91-0.2948731%
Alex Smith2014KAN-1469.109.42-0.3146453%
Jeff George1993IND-1468.578.93-0.3640718%
Troy Aikman2000DAL-1468.368.92-0.5626236%
Brian Griese2001DEN-1468.628.94-0.3245153%
Matt Ryan2013ATL-1479.049.27-0.2365125%
Ryan Tannehill2015MIA-1479.229.47-0.2558638%
David Carr2003HOU-1498.298.80-0.5029527%
Nick Foles2014PHI-1508.949.42-0.4831175%
Dave Krieg1995ARI-1508.739.02-0.2952125%
Tim Couch2001CLE-1518.618.94-0.3345444%
Dan Marino1998MIA-1528.819.10-0.2853763%
Josh Freeman2009TAM-1538.589.11-0.5329033%
Brian Griese2007CHI-1548.609.18-0.5926250%
Troy Aikman1997DAL-1588.608.91-0.3051838%
Donovan McNabb2010WAS-1598.859.19-0.3447238%
Elvis Grbac1997KAN-1598.408.91-0.5131480%
Donovan McNabb2002PHI-1598.478.91-0.4436170%
Steve McNair1998TEN-1598.779.10-0.3249250%
Geno Smith2013NYJ-1608.919.27-0.3644350%
Steve McNair1999TEN-1638.388.87-0.4933182%
Ray Lucas1999NYJ-1638.278.87-0.6027267%
Bubby Brister1993PHI-1648.408.93-0.5330950%
Tim Rattay2004SFO-1648.939.43-0.5032511%
Erik Kramer1997CHI-1648.568.91-0.3447731%
Kent Graham1999NYG-1668.268.87-0.6127156%
Neil O'Donnell1994PIT-1678.518.97-0.4537071%
Josh McCown2014TAM-1708.909.42-0.523279%
Jake Locker2012TEN-1718.799.33-0.5431436%
John Skelton2011ARI-1728.779.39-0.6227571%
Elvis Grbac2001BAL-1758.578.94-0.3746757%
Jeff George1992IND-1758.589.15-0.5730660%
Byron Leftwich2004JAX-1759.039.43-0.4044157%
Steve Beuerlein1994ARI-1778.278.97-0.6925543%
Kerry Collins2003NYG-1778.448.80-0.3550031%
Wade Wilson1993NOR-1788.478.93-0.4638850%
Andy Dalton2012CIN-1798.999.33-0.3452863%
Jeff Blake1997CIN-1808.348.91-0.5731727%
Philip Rivers2012SDG-1818.999.33-0.3452744%
Jim Harbaugh1996IND-1838.458.90-0.4540550%
Dave Brown1996NYG-1838.448.90-0.4639838%
Tarvaris Jackson2007MIN-1838.569.18-0.6229467%
Peyton Manning2015DEN-1838.929.47-0.5533178%
Quincy Carter2003DAL-1848.438.80-0.3650563%
Jon Kitna2000SEA-1878.478.92-0.4541850%
Trevor Siemian2016DEN-1889.069.45-0.3948657%
Sam Bradford2016MIN-1889.119.45-0.3455247%
Brad Johnson2005MIN-1898.409.04-0.6429478%
Brandon Weeden2013CLE-1898.569.27-0.712670%
Patrick Ramsey2003WAS-1918.238.80-0.5733736%
Matt Hasselbeck2015IND-1948.719.47-0.7625663%
Matt Cassel2012KAN-1958.639.33-0.7027713%
Chad Henne2009MIA-1958.689.11-0.4345154%
Michael Vick2012PHI-1978.779.33-0.5635130%
Troy Aikman1999DAL-1978.438.87-0.4544250%
Jake Plummer2006DEN-1998.419.04-0.6331764%
Dave Krieg1996CHI-2018.378.90-0.5337750%
Neil O'Donnell1998CIN-2038.519.10-0.5934318%
Brett Favre2010MIN-2048.629.19-0.5735838%
Andrew Luck2015IND-2048.779.47-0.7029329%
Mark Brunell2006WAS-2068.249.04-0.7926033%
Sam Bradford2012STL-2098.959.33-0.3855147%
Alex Smith2015KAN-2119.029.47-0.4547069%
Heath Shuler1994WAS-2128.178.97-0.8026513%
Derek Carr2015OAK-2159.109.47-0.3757344%
Seneca Wallace2008SEA-2168.209.09-0.8924238%
Cade McNown1999CHI-2177.958.87-0.9223533%
Jim Harbaugh1998BAL-2178.359.10-0.7429342%
Peyton Manning1998IND-2198.729.10-0.3857519%
Jeff Garcia2004CLE-2198.569.43-0.8725230%
Dan Orlovsky2008DET-2198.249.09-0.862550%
Sam Bradford2013STL-2208.439.27-0.8426243%
Jay Schroeder1994ARI-2208.048.97-0.9223863%
Tim Couch2002CLE-2228.418.91-0.5044357%
Jim McMahon1993MIN-2238.258.93-0.6733167%
Jeff Garcia2002SFO-2268.488.91-0.4352863%
Case Keenum2016LAR-2298.749.45-0.7132244%
Kelly Holcomb2003CLE-2368.018.80-0.7830225%
Randall Cunningham1994PHI-2378.488.97-0.4849050%
Carson Palmer2012OAK-2388.919.33-0.4256527%
Matt Schaub2013HOU-2408.609.27-0.6735825%
Teddy Bridgewater2015MIN-2408.939.47-0.5444769%
Patrick Ramsey2004WAS-2418.559.43-0.8927243%
Matthew Stafford2014DET-2429.019.42-0.4060269%
John Friesz1993SDG-2447.908.93-1.0323833%
Jay Cutler2009CHI-2528.669.11-0.4555544%
Drew Bledsoe2004BUF-2538.879.43-0.5645056%
Geno Smith2014NYJ-2538.739.42-0.6936723%
Kerry Collins19982TM-2548.389.10-0.7235318%
JaMarcus Russell2008OAK-2558.409.09-0.6936833%
Andrew Walter2006OAK-2568.119.04-0.9327625%
Philip Rivers2015SDG-2589.089.47-0.3966125%
Steve Walsh1994CHI-2598.218.97-0.7634373%
Mike Glennon2013TAM-2608.649.27-0.6341631%
Kellen Clemens2007NYJ-2608.149.18-1.0425038%
Jim Harbaugh1993CHI-2618.128.93-0.8032547%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2009BUF-2627.969.11-1.1522750%
Alex Smith2010SFO-2628.439.19-0.7634230%
Matt Cassel2011KAN-2628.429.39-0.9726944%
Blaine Gabbert2015SFO-2648.549.47-0.9428238%
Rex Grossman2007CHI-2658.009.18-1.1822529%
Vinny Testaverde2001NYJ-2678.348.94-0.6044163%
Mark Sanchez2012NYJ-2678.749.33-0.5945340%
Tim Tebow2011DEN-2688.409.39-0.9927164%
Ryan Tannehill2012MIA-2698.789.33-0.5548444%
Andy Dalton2014CIN-2718.859.42-0.5648166%
Matt Hasselbeck2010SEA-2728.589.19-0.6144443%
Brett Favre2005GNB-2748.599.04-0.4560725%
Jake Delhomme2009CAR-2748.269.11-0.8532136%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2012BUF-2758.799.33-0.5450538%
Terrelle Pryor2013OAK-2768.259.27-1.0227233%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2016NYJ-2778.769.45-0.6940327%
Derek Anderson2010ARI-2788.349.19-0.8532722%
Mark Sanchez2010NYJ-2788.649.19-0.5550769%
Chad Henne2012JAX-2818.429.33-0.9130817%
Chad Hutchinson2002DAL-2817.788.91-1.1225022%
Colin Kaepernick2016SFO-2838.609.45-0.853319%
Vinny Testaverde1997BAL-2848.308.91-0.6047035%
Christian Ponder2011MIN-2848.429.39-0.9829120%
Kordell Stewart2003CHI-2847.678.80-1.1325129%
Jim Everett1993RAM-2857.898.93-1.0427433%
Jim Harbaugh1999SDG-2878.218.87-0.6643450%
Jay Schroeder1992RAI-2927.999.15-1.1525344%
Kyle Boller2005BAL-2948.049.04-1.0029344%
Kerry Collins2008TEN-2948.399.09-0.7141580%
Eli Manning2006NYG-2948.479.04-0.5652250%
Joey Harrington2005DET-2958.159.04-0.8933036%
Kyle Boller2003BAL-3037.448.80-1.3522456%
Shane Matthews1999CHI-3067.768.87-1.1127543%
Marc Bulger2009STL-3077.879.11-1.2424713%
Rich Gannon1998KAN-3078.239.10-0.8735450%
Drew Bledsoe1993NWE-3118.208.93-0.7242942%
Tyler Thigpen2008KAN-3128.359.09-0.744209%
Matt Hasselbeck2001SEA-3157.968.94-0.9832142%
Vince Young2006TEN-3188.159.04-0.8935762%
Kerry Collins2004OAK-3208.819.43-0.6251323%
Jake Delhomme2006CAR-3208.299.04-0.7443154%
Anthony Wright2005BAL-3227.839.04-1.2126629%
Tarvaris Jackson2011SEA-3248.679.39-0.7245050%
Brooks Bollinger2005NYJ-3267.819.04-1.2326622%
Eli Manning2007NYG-3298.569.18-0.6252963%
Craig Whelihan1997SDG-3317.518.91-1.392370%
Vinny Testaverde2000NYJ-3318.368.92-0.5659056%
Tony Banks2000BAL-3327.718.92-1.2127463%
Kyle Orton2014BUF-3398.669.42-0.7644758%
Boomer Esiason1994NYJ-3468.188.97-0.7944036%
Dave Brown1995NYG-3488.269.02-0.7645631%
Drew Bledsoe2003BUF-3518.058.80-0.7547138%
Tony Banks2001WAS-3567.988.94-0.9637057%
Colin Kaepernick2015SFO-3588.009.47-1.4724425%
Jeff Blake2003ARI-3647.818.80-0.9936723%
Joe Flacco2011BAL-3648.729.39-0.6754275%
Alex Smith2006SFO-3678.219.04-0.8344244%
Neil O'Donnell1997NYJ-3678.118.91-0.8046057%
Rick Mirer1996SEA-3717.508.90-1.4026522%
E.J. Manuel2013BUF-3718.069.27-1.2130640%
Curtis Painter2011IND-3737.859.39-1.542430%
Donovan McNabb2001PHI-3758.188.94-0.7649369%
Kerry Collins1997CAR-3817.918.91-1.0038146%
Kerry Collins1995CAR-3838.139.02-0.8843354%
Brett Favre1993GNB-3848.198.93-0.7352256%
Doug Pederson1999PHI-3857.188.87-1.6922722%
Andrew Luck2013IND-3888.599.27-0.6857069%
Trent Edwards2007BUF-3887.749.18-1.4426956%
J.P. Losman2005BUF-3897.339.04-1.7122813%
Rich Gannon2003OAK-3897.078.80-1.7322529%
Ryan Mallett20152TM-3927.869.47-1.6124433%
Kyle Orton2008CHI-3928.259.09-0.8446560%
Rodney Peete1995PHI-3937.979.02-1.0537575%
Kent Graham1997ARI-3947.338.91-1.5825017%
David Carr2005HOU-3988.109.04-0.9442313%
Shane Matthews2002WAS-4017.228.91-1.6923743%
Andy Dalton2011CIN-4028.619.39-0.7851656%
Drew Brees2002SDG-4048.148.91-0.7752650%
Brad Johnson2001TAM-4068.218.94-0.7355956%
Matt Hasselbeck2011TEN-4108.609.39-0.7951856%
Nick Foles2012PHI-4107.789.33-1.5526517%
Derek Anderson2008CLE-4117.649.09-1.4528333%
Shaun Hill2010DET-4148.199.19-1.0041630%
Charlie Frye2006CLE-4197.979.04-1.0739231%
Danny Kanell1997NYG-4207.488.91-1.4329475%
Todd Collins1997BUF-4237.828.91-1.0839138%
Tim Couch1999CLE-4237.818.87-1.0639914%
Steve Bono1995KAN-4238.209.02-0.8152081%
Browning Nagle1992NYJ-4258.059.15-1.1038723%
Trent Dilfer1996TAM-4288.018.90-0.8948238%
Ryan Leaf2000SDG-4287.598.92-1.3332211%
Kordell Stewart1999PIT-4307.318.87-1.5627545%
David Klingler1994CIN-4337.098.97-1.872310%
Alex Smith2013KAN-4338.429.27-0.8550873%
Boomer Esiason1995NYJ-4407.899.02-1.1338917%
Jason Campbell2008WAS-4508.219.09-0.8950650%
Billy Joe Tolliver1994HOU-4527.088.97-1.892400%
Cade McNown2000CHI-4567.298.92-1.6328011%
Tom Brady2002NWE-4608.148.91-0.7760156%
Alex Smith2009SFO-4617.879.11-1.2437250%
Charlie Batch2000DET-4637.808.92-1.1241253%
Brodie Croyle2007KAN-4677.109.18-2.092240%
Jay Cutler2014CHI-4688.589.42-0.8356133%
Mark Sanchez2011NYJ-4698.539.39-0.8654350%
Tony Banks1998STL-4807.929.10-1.1840829%
Eli Manning2016NYG-4808.659.45-0.8059869%
Jake Plummer2000ARI-4857.908.92-1.0247521%
Josh McCown2004ARI-4868.249.43-1.1940846%
Jason Campbell2013CLE-4887.739.27-1.5431713%
Blaine Gabbert2012JAX-4887.589.33-1.7627810%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2011BUF-4898.539.39-0.8656938%
Joey Harrington2007ATL-4907.779.18-1.4134830%
Ken Dorsey2004SFO-4917.269.43-2.1722614%
David Carr2006HOU-4927.929.04-1.1144238%
Joe Flacco2015BAL-4948.279.47-1.2041330%
Drew Bledsoe2000NWE-4957.998.92-0.9353131%
Steve Bono1996KAN-5057.758.90-1.1543862%
Sam Bradford2015PHI-5088.529.47-0.9553250%
Brady Quinn2009CLE-5137.119.11-2.0025622%
Joey Harrington2006MIA-5137.719.04-1.3238845%
Brad Johnson2006MIN-5177.869.04-1.1843943%
Rick Mirer1994SEA-5197.608.97-1.3638138%
Jim Everett1996NOR-5247.778.90-1.1346420%
Mark Brunell2004WAS-5257.229.43-2.2123733%
Jake Plummer1999ARI-5287.498.87-1.3838127%
Donovan McNabb2000PHI-5317.998.92-0.9356969%
Gus Frerotte2005MIA-5357.969.04-1.0849460%
Sam Bradford2011STL-5417.889.39-1.5135710%
Matthew Stafford2009DET-5467.669.11-1.4537720%
Drew Brees2003SDG-5547.248.80-1.5635618%
Brandon Weeden2012CLE-5548.269.33-1.0751733%
Aaron Rodgers2015GNB-5698.489.47-0.9957263%
Cleo Lemon2007MIA-5737.339.18-1.8530914%
Rick Mirer1993SEA-5747.748.93-1.1848638%
Ryan Leaf1998SDG-5876.709.10-2.4024533%
Jim Miller2001CHI-5997.438.94-1.5239585%
Stan Gelbaugh1992SEA-6046.789.15-2.372550%
Christian Ponder2012MIN-6188.059.33-1.2848363%
Craig Whelihan1998SDG-6257.149.10-1.9532029%
Danny Kanell1998NYG-6267.009.10-2.1029930%
Marc Bulger2008STL-6307.669.09-1.4344013%
Josh Freeman2011TAM-6358.249.39-1.1555127%
Joe Flacco2013BAL-6378.239.27-1.0461450%
Matt Hasselbeck2009SEA-6497.789.11-1.3348836%
Colt McCoy2011CLE-6557.989.39-1.4146331%
JaMarcus Russell2009OAK-6596.439.11-2.6824622%
Blake Bortles2016JAX-6618.399.45-1.0662519%
David Carr2002HOU-6617.428.91-1.4944425%
Jon Kitna2001CIN-6847.778.94-1.1858140%
Boomer Esiason1992CIN-6966.649.15-2.5027836%
A.J. Feeley2004MIA-7037.469.43-1.9735638%
David Klingler1993CIN-7116.858.93-2.0734323%
Chad Henne2013JAX-7137.859.27-1.4250331%
Brett Favre2006GNB-7157.879.04-1.1761350%
Jake Plummer2002ARI-7287.538.91-1.3753031%
Kordell Stewart1998PIT-7377.499.10-1.6145844%
Matt Cassel2009KAN-7437.609.11-1.5149327%
Brock Osweiler2016HOU-7687.959.45-1.5151057%
Joey Harrington2004DET-7807.849.43-1.5948938%
Akili Smith2000CIN-7875.988.92-2.9526718%
Carson Wentz2016PHI-8018.139.45-1.3260744%
Kyle Orton2005CHI-8136.839.04-2.2136867%
Bobby Hoying1998PHI-8215.439.10-3.6722414%
Ryan Fitzpatrick2008CIN-8226.889.09-2.2137238%
Nick Foles2015STL-8476.969.47-2.5133736%
Jimmy Clausen2010CAR-8526.349.19-2.8529910%
Joe Flacco2016BAL-8568.189.45-1.2767250%
Kyle Boller2004BAL-8677.569.43-1.8746456%
Bruce Gradkowski2006TAM-8796.369.04-2.6832827%
Joey Harrington2002DET-8896.838.91-2.0742925%
Sam Bradford2010STL-9117.659.19-1.5459044%
Drew Bledsoe1995NWE-9157.589.02-1.4463640%
Mark Rypien1993WAS-9395.988.93-2.9431930%
Blake Bortles2014JAX-9667.389.42-2.0347523%
Blaine Gabbert2011JAX-10456.869.39-2.5341329%
Joey Harrington2003DET-10596.888.80-1.9155431%
Chris Weinke2001CAR-10766.958.94-1.995407%
Derek Carr2014OAK-13117.239.42-2.1959919%

I won’t bother telling you what you can see with your own eyes, but there are a few things worth noting. For one, this list dovetails closely with traditional rankings of QB seasons that do include INT’s and sacks; the best seasons were generally great regardless of how many negative plays the QB had. The other main takeaway from PY/A is how strongly it correlates with winning. The correlation between Relative PY/A and Win % is a robust .56. This is pretty remarkable considering PY/A not only excludes interceptions and sacks, but also ignores fumbles, the running game, defense, and special teams. I feel confident in stating that the most vital factor in winning games is consistently producing big plays in the passing game.

The relationship between PY/A and winning holds true from the best passers to the worst and everyone in between. In the table below, I split Relative PY/A into ten bins from highest to lowest. As you’ll see, team Win % drops in lockstep with a drop in PY/A. Teams featuring an elite PY/A offense can expect to win more than three quarters of their games, while PY/A failures barely win one quarter of their matchups.

Range (L)Range (H)Win %n
2over
77.4%17
1.51.9967.1%38
11.4963.2%80
0.50.9957.4%122
00.4952.1%136
-0.5-0.0148.6%162
-1-0.5146.4%117
-1.5-1.0136.5%62
-2-1.5129.3%29
under-2.0126.1%21

In conclusion, the next time you catch an expert on TV imploring, “You must win the turnover battle,” take his words with a mound of salt.