Regular Season QBGOAT XI: Cascaded Career Stats

brett favreWhen Pro Football Reference calculates career Approximate Value, they use a method in which they give 100% credit for a player’s best season, 95% for his second best season, 90% for his third season, and so on. Similarly, Chase Stuart utilizes this method when separating the wheat from the chaff in his own quarterback series. I don’t really know of a name for that methodology, so I have taken to calling it cascading the stats. As you may have guessed by the title, this article will focus on cascaded career stats.

I have opted for a slightly different version than is common. Instead of the 100/95/90 model, I have used a 100/96/92 model. This way, guys like Vinny Testaverde still have their lowest seasons included.1 One thing I will note, before moving on, is that cascading stats is a rather arbitrary exercise. Instead of being based on analysis that this is the way to go, it’s basically us stat guys just picking a thing to do because we feel like we have to do something. When the results pass the famous smell test, we congratulate ourselves on a job well done and don’t really think anything more of it.2

With that in mind, today we’ll have a look at the cascaded career stats from this original post. Check out the results.

Cascaded Career Stats

This table displays the cascaded career stats for every quarterback since 1932 who met the following conditions: at least 750 plays, at least 3000 Total Adjusted Yards, or an absolute value over 750 in value over average (357 players in all). Read it thus: Peyton Manning had 10114 plays for 68574 Total Adjusted Yards at 6.78 per play. He was 1.71 TAY/P better than average. He was also 2.89 or 3.13 better than replacement, depending on your baseline for replacement-level. His cascaded career value over average is 12847. His cascaded replacement values are 20649 and 21624.

PlayerPlyTAYTAY/PVal/P75Rep/PSDRep/PVal75RepSDRep
Peyton Manning10114685746.781.712.983.13128472064921624
Dan Marino8929540086.051.412.572.8892861585117737
Tom Brady8698559956.441.252.542.6491211682917429
Drew Brees8800565646.431.202.512.6188201673517351
Steve Young5229342936.561.893.063.3586671317114263
Joe Montana6161384126.231.662.803.1480211311114643
Aaron Rodgers4787337427.051.632.983.0369691231612544
Brett Favre11296613655.430.601.812.0568721436515821
Fran Tarkenton7625388805.101.102.102.9568121122915184
Otto Graham3031202896.692.573.604.806620910511941
Dan Fouts6147330125.371.152.202.7461191074912878
Ken Anderson5270280235.321.312.313.006054972212388
Johnny Unitas5866312265.321.102.153.005845982113137
Roger Staubach3681199905.431.672.613.465405822310708
Philip Rivers5967375626.290.942.282.3452591136511707
Sonny Jurgensen4683258215.511.312.363.195219882111695
Tony Romo4817312526.491.172.502.5948841006910440
Norm Van Brocklin2997173075.771.902.873.94476769149383
Len Dawson4251226825.341.182.223.064736783010326
Sammy Baugh3319154004.641.532.313.77469564759953
Kurt Warner4503268715.971.052.282.52465490919962
Ben Roethlisberger6255384396.150.862.182.2746081063510981
Y.A. Tittle4821243755.060.831.892.864602790810897
John Elway8540441625.170.531.692.0044201080912465
Sid Luckman1873100945.392.393.144.78413352627779
John Brodie4868243004.990.811.852.684120758510353
Donovan McNabb6400357295.580.641.872.104003969510788
Jeff Garcia4325252355.830.992.202.42396282428981
Trent Green4242244985.780.952.162.39394081158930
Boomer Esiason5970308055.160.521.681.99373785879933
Joe Namath3983192534.830.911.892.88372766839769
Daryle Lamonica2823148505.261.352.333.31372760498463
John Hadl5236242154.620.611.612.533717725810615
Jim Kelly5406291945.400.741.912.22356382809593
Warren Moon7824393965.040.391.551.853501957011142
Bert Jones3030154145.091.132.122.87343959237876
Rich Gannon5029268685.340.611.792.04342479008818
Steve McNair5467297175.440.641.842.07330382209150
Carson Palmer5994347475.800.551.861.97327791499635
Jim Hart5517243274.410.471.452.22326666569656
Bart Starr3631185965.120.861.932.76318758187883
Troy Aikman5301278955.260.551.731.99313076888725
Roman Gabriel5204233274.480.491.492.35300365109645
Jim Everett5437282135.190.501.671.97296478739096
Mark Brunell5543293185.290.511.711.93282477658704
Terry Bradshaw4652208824.490.521.512.21271860578317
Cecil Isbell124065475.282.273.024.37263934875040
Matt Ryan5033302996.020.561.931.95263583278416
Vinny Testaverde7548357874.740.011.191.46262675548652
Joe Theismann4297205444.780.531.592.07255561767770
Matt Schaub3636215775.930.641.972.12253565157020
Bob Griese4025180964.500.711.662.60253251467893
Earl Morrall3014143304.750.591.632.47250944076095
Craig Morton4406192804.380.421.412.15250152867389
Daunte Culpepper4011214495.350.501.711.93248665077245
Randall Cunningham5548275554.970.291.461.76247072478552
Steve Grogan4285200314.670.511.552.12242955157347
Bobby Layne4311185204.300.471.432.51237351448443
Mark Rypien2837153505.410.731.902.20229550365762
Russell Wilson2310153536.651.032.432.28223852504912
Charlie Conerly3103133504.300.531.472.62222542476800
Billy Kilmer3446152984.440.551.522.39213545056738
Matt Hasselbeck6055314495.190.121.391.57210771958028
Ken Stabler4192178374.260.241.251.92208548547034
Bernie Kosar3818192965.050.431.591.93201454476529
Chad Pennington2813155985.540.641.862.11201349255520
Eli Manning6797371525.470.181.501.59181185118911
Greg Landry3046129244.240.391.352.13180139825812
Bob Waterfield169271554.231.061.853.35179529045034
Doug Williams2811142385.070.661.762.16178244655440
Johnny Lujack86047295.502.132.974.30178124693562
Brian Sipe3886176314.540.381.421.98177651286877
Brad Johnson4853244855.050.251.451.67174360986939
Jim McMahon3137159555.090.521.662.02168643925268
Michael Vick4406236645.370.261.541.69167959996571
Neil Lomax3737183354.910.401.521.92167452536516
Cam Newton3202194916.090.521.911.81162256495366
Frank Ryan2593126384.870.581.652.51161739015743
Phil Simms5473260064.750.221.351.70161460507438
Milt Plum2710124914.610.261.352.21154737525537
Tom Flores180695475.290.711.852.48150832584225
Dutch Clark85638494.501.812.483.73150420172984
Tommy Thompson171767003.900.721.513.05143025804808
Marc Bulger3543186165.250.321.561.81142850715837
Joe Ferguson5184210094.05-0.080.961.56141048477007
Charley Johnson3830168184.390.281.312.15137843026771
Doug Flutie2596135725.230.471.661.91135339194474
Norm Snead4835198984.12-0.021.011.84134346417357
Steve DeBerg5524247774.490.011.131.51131055947012
Dave Krieg6222283144.55-0.061.091.41130954326780
Frankie Albert189396635.100.671.783.01130531335131
Ron Jaworski4737209434.420.161.231.71127651106789
Don Meredith2768127424.600.311.382.22127137055617
Billy Wade2888135684.700.351.442.28126737645682
Wade Wilson2884134204.650.031.181.52120035294248
Neil O'Donnell3703183754.960.261.441.70115845385309
Danny White3226155724.830.341.461.85115442045260
Jeff Hostetler2861144885.060.371.541.80115039964621
Jim Zorn3684158994.320.201.231.79113342205939
Jeff George4493215034.790.071.251.51112652146090
Elvis Grbac2737139305.090.341.531.74112139144426
Bill Nelsen213593884.400.331.352.15111628294249
Arnie Herber123946593.760.981.682.98111518073101
Bill Kenney2748132364.820.331.451.85107936804629
Chris Chandler4756218244.59-0.141.041.30105348225645
Bobby Hebert3494169204.840.211.361.70102942605219
Cliff Battles76832004.171.392.093.2499914812289
George Blanda3761165574.400.041.131.8898439326071
George Ratterman150277185.140.601.742.9192423773941
Tobin Rote3542135733.83-0.070.901.8691234685991
David Garrard2840152245.360.281.551.8187639474602
Jake Delhomme3275166015.070.101.351.6286041534904
Ed Danowski107238303.570.801.492.7285615042671
Bobby Thomason144058774.080.451.362.4584219623342
Babe Parilli3745157104.19-0.150.941.7382936885798
Matthew Stafford4101232885.680.151.531.4881657775588
Bernie Masterson51723874.621.692.423.5381211491659
Ray Mallouf33318905.682.463.264.7679810581539
Steve Beuerlein3885183684.730.001.191.4479542425018
Tommy Kramer4114184774.490.071.181.5679343275593
Bob Monnett69027513.991.211.903.1079012251968
Jim Harbaugh4840226434.68-0.021.151.4374147325718
Jay Cutler5001270975.420.061.401.4774059916299
Bill Munson230492504.010.021.021.8974022893757
Andy Dalton2900168355.810.241.631.5473143554105
Jeff Blake3907189934.860.091.291.5070944575135
Pat Haden160269524.340.401.382.0270821143054
Steve Bartkowski3990167174.19-0.041.021.5469840595604
Gary Danielson2301104004.520.221.301.7468927903636
Ace Parker121645503.740.471.292.4762515042762
Frank Filchock115437993.290.331.072.4862413402741
Ed Brown224695364.250.021.071.9560324383987
Andrew Luck2443142025.810.231.621.5059637883508
Ken O'Brien4129191844.650.051.201.5558244395652
Virgil Carter94442854.540.591.582.3257114272074
Jacky Lee91843404.730.271.382.0554813181795
Erik Kramer2574121514.720.011.191.4654330653626
Jake Plummer5062238114.70-0.091.111.3552952636211
James Harris137151743.770.081.001.9652015682700
Tony Eason187586904.630.131.261.6250623963012
Kirk Cousins103263256.130.441.861.6449819081680
Jay Schroeder3258151444.650.031.191.5345334924428
Scott Mitchell2673125204.68-0.051.141.3543331303630
Brian Griese3227154464.79-0.041.171.3843235514129
Bob Berry147559434.030.101.081.8641616122615
Colin Kaepernick1801104295.790.181.581.4339427132469
Stan Humphries2810134804.800.091.271.5136832523849
Nick Foles140281255.800.181.591.4436821911999
Don Strock87336724.21-0.021.041.573419871342
Spec Sanders95851265.350.311.572.7833914882599
Gus Frerotte3509162834.64-0.181.031.2633634094062
Aaron Brooks3560173214.870.041.251.4732640414724
Drew Bledsoe7569351154.64-0.131.061.2931166387867
Mike Tomczak2649119164.50-0.180.991.3028825103128
Charlie Batch193792324.77-0.051.151.3626420932453
Steve Pelluer119756784.740.161.301.7126115151984
Vince Ferragamo176976534.33-0.101.011.4025919282525
Byron Leftwich183490904.960.031.271.5325622472694
Paul Christman122538783.170.130.892.5024510742827
Cotton Davidson180482684.58-0.021.131.7324520322951
Jay Fiedler205098694.810.021.221.4224123992745
Robert Griffin140879845.670.131.511.4423221032003
Steve Bono190287714.61-0.101.081.3322919852397
Lynn Dickey3562143654.03-0.220.841.3720431514517
Jim Plunkett4404170403.87-0.180.831.5218132965492
Chris Miller3279152174.64-0.071.111.3916633454138
Mike Livingston206071233.46-0.250.681.6111615483115
Archie Manning4422162663.68-0.290.701.3911634285682
Rob Johnson108651504.74-0.011.181.3711512331420
Kyle Orton3003154375.14-0.121.201.3711034613910
Don Trull79333314.20-0.080.991.88788381456
Craig Erickson125158464.67-0.031.141.367114121668
Kordell Stewart3088139924.53-0.230.961.193829023464
Jeff Kemp109346344.24-0.290.851.243010441417
Johnny Clement84830673.62-0.100.832.2517131823
Kerry Collins6972314434.51-0.350.871.10-1054406509
Rudy Bukich136946843.42-0.810.251.15-169691857
John Friesz149166514.46-0.220.951.24-1913741755
George Shaw93236983.97-0.230.821.68-507381423
Shaun Hill135969585.12-0.171.151.33-6614721706
Jake Locker86446335.36-0.171.221.16-921001960
Jack Kemp3488146744.21-0.210.891.66-9729765003
Jim Finks147350553.43-0.180.731.89-11010712640
Eddie LeBaron200774633.72-0.400.631.57-12514492870
Pat Ryan76029493.88-0.630.500.89-128560819
Ty Detmer108548574.48-0.260.931.17-12810401282
Vince Evans172067253.91-0.610.520.87-13211451554
Steve Spurrier123242673.46-0.280.651.60-1468291877
Brian Hoyer113061765.47-0.181.231.04-14713571151
Tim Rattay82236184.40-0.450.761.03-168644844
Scott Hunter90130873.43-0.300.631.51-1715641272
Bob Lee79223272.94-0.780.151.09-1904121019
Steve Tensi98834453.49-0.350.611.80-2056421706
Gary Hogeboom152665424.29-0.290.861.20-21111961642
Roy Zimmerman88221602.45-0.550.201.89-2173241600
Damon Huard109248294.42-0.470.750.99-2398721100
Joe Flacco4607243785.29-0.151.211.26-24649275107
Parker Hall105828162.66-0.370.391.73-2554791766
Frank Reich109142803.92-0.790.380.64-256672892
Jason Campbell2928147395.03-0.171.131.33-27229603498
Irv Comp77417572.27-0.620.101.88-2802191458
Marty Domres101831853.13-0.620.321.28-2924641281
Glenn Dobbs119657154.78-0.300.972.19-29711402520
Seneca Wallace91542114.60-0.540.750.98-311696891
Pete Liske88330093.41-0.470.501.32-3224591127
Steve Ramsey106434583.25-0.460.471.43-3355161439
Shaun King91238614.23-0.520.670.88-359655835
Jim Miller114149784.36-0.410.780.95-3608611036
Rodney Peete2860120304.21-0.510.670.91-36518972409
Shane Matthews91638594.21-0.550.640.84-371581745
Todd Collins85131373.69-1.110.090.34-377287450
Gary Cuozzo137247043.43-0.570.431.25-3776641562
Bubby Brister2596106864.12-0.580.600.89-38318742500
Jim Hardy96425722.67-0.700.151.54-3852961448
Teddy Bridgewater102354405.32-0.391.040.79-3881037788
Jim Ninowski116741163.53-0.880.221.05-4275141212
Vince Young166978394.70-0.380.891.11-43514281759
Derek Anderson171776734.47-0.680.610.82-43712741571
Pete Beathard148350283.39-0.550.441.50-4477442089
Alex Smith4365221975.09-0.291.061.08-45843294318
Richard Todd3490136803.92-0.350.721.21-48724933858
Tarvaris Jackson133460784.56-0.650.650.81-5068681056
Bud Schwenk80725903.21-0.770.231.77-5072291391
Lamar McHan169757663.40-0.680.341.25-5197991994
Cody Carlson79429523.72-0.940.230.54-532258480
David Woodley158563534.01-0.460.651.02-55710151530
Tommy Maddox136256244.13-0.680.520.75-5578871152
Matt Moore89738604.30-1.010.310.46-584395509
Josh Freeman2365118195.00-0.400.951.06-58822712511
Mike Pagel176069083.93-0.590.540.91-59410241597
Don Majkowski233398264.21-0.500.680.98-59816862281
Trent Edwards107647614.42-0.690.590.85-616657929
Patrick Ramsey103941894.03-0.820.400.63-638415645
Adrian Burk110230562.77-0.800.091.20-6531981260
Kent Graham156063914.10-0.620.560.82-6738531204
Kelly Holcomb100738713.84-1.020.200.44-698305503
A.J. Feeley84331513.74-1.180.050.28-717133285
Steve Fuller140451013.63-0.750.350.71-722527955
Steve Walsh143756933.96-0.780.410.66-7237351065
Steve Dils109738073.47-1.040.090.52-725191607
Kellen Clemens77329043.76-1.53-0.21-0.14-727-40-14
Kevin Kolb90139184.35-1.020.320.46-735333443
David Archer88530013.39-1.080.040.40-742114396
Derek Carr128965685.10-0.610.820.57-7421050740
Dick Shiner88824942.81-1.29-0.260.53-743-76534
Dick Wood122047533.90-0.770.390.97-7535251160
Randy Hedberg114-352-3.09-6.64-5.75-4.78-757-655-545
Bobby Douglass176853173.01-0.770.171.06-7605711876
Jack Scarbath3223611.12-2.52-1.61-0.44-761-483-125
Curtis Painter3309742.95-2.46-1.11-1.03-765-338-313
Quincy Carter119248994.11-0.730.480.69-769554790
Matt Robinson64015462.42-1.56-0.570.00-770-210123
Jerry Golsteyn2581330.52-3.49-2.49-1.82-773-545-395
Marc Wilson243295723.94-0.600.530.89-77612932007
Spergon Wynn186870.47-4.30-3.11-2.95-776-561-533
Chris Simms59320043.38-1.51-0.29-0.02-779-10251
Matt Cassel3031143004.72-0.620.720.85-78422982674
George Terlep191410.21-4.52-3.34-2.03-794-588-361
Ryan Fitzpatrick4083205835.04-0.390.971.00-79736903722
Dean McAdams3792620.69-2.28-1.540.22-799-53691
Ronnie Cahill171-288-1.68-4.69-3.94-2.17-801-673-371
Al Dorow145552353.60-0.750.331.03-8056061521
Mickey Slaughter65421233.25-1.43-0.260.27-806-99225
Hugh Millen111940553.62-1.030.130.48-807243580
Colt McCoy103745964.43-1.010.350.42-808361427
Brandon Weeden109251274.70-0.850.540.46-810576505
Bill Troup3935441.38-2.36-1.42-0.74-813-495-258
Bob Hoernschemeyer89435794.00-0.980.271.50-8172411291
Cliff Stoudt88228533.23-1.27-0.140.29-825-18329
David Whitehurst115636143.13-0.890.120.67-826204800
Eric Hipple185171083.84-0.640.480.87-8279281571
Danny Wuerffel43810952.50-2.23-1.05-0.81-829-372-280
John Roach4067711.90-2.44-1.36-0.43-836-459-107
Paul McDonald88229393.33-1.14-0.020.35-84113325
Doug Pederson62316532.65-2.10-0.91-0.68-845-350-253
Fred Enke85919382.26-1.25-0.371.03-846-218875
Mark Malone189372223.82-0.700.430.82-8698851521
Brady Quinn63523623.72-1.58-0.25-0.07-873-120-13
Ryan Lindley2966822.30-3.24-1.85-1.92-873-495-514
Zeke Bratkowski162148102.97-1.33-0.250.60-8911961124
Johnny Gildea251-320-1.27-3.89-3.23-1.87-892-741-429
Davey O'Brien68611501.68-1.35-0.590.56-893-388383
Don Panciera2602530.97-3.58-2.44-1.17-897-612-290
Scott Bull275320.12-3.56-2.64-1.84-903-668-462
Jack Concannon141842442.99-1.03-0.030.77-9121161041
Browning Nagle49911682.34-2.23-1.08-0.72-914-452-305
Bobby Hoying56215172.70-2.02-0.84-0.56-918-323-182
Joe Pisarcik107528992.70-1.24-0.250.38-931-105460
Donald Hollas48812252.51-2.17-1.00-0.68-936-432-291
Chad Hutchinson49613512.72-2.06-0.87-0.66-943-397-303
John McCormick54714542.66-1.98-0.82-0.16-956-386-63
Josh McCown2324101454.37-0.860.440.51-95713121422
Karl Sweetan69417072.46-1.66-0.630.28-958-336241
Ken Dorsey44410532.37-2.53-1.31-0.99-994-503-377
Bruce Gradkowski85028933.40-1.66-0.39-0.16-996-1631
Billy Joe Tolliver193176283.95-0.780.400.67-9998391267
Rusty Hilger54813052.38-2.24-1.09-0.65-1004-478-282
Chris Weinke81026793.31-1.50-0.30-0.14-1007-198-82
Jon Kitna5078221644.36-0.500.710.93-100733914228
Rex Grossman173573404.23-0.860.410.60-10127531036
George Izo3442030.59-3.74-2.66-1.81-1013-708-472
Mike McMahon65219583.00-1.83-0.62-0.42-1026-340-223
Sam Etcheverry3435061.48-3.15-2.00-1.30-1052-667-431
Dave Wilson118338463.25-1.22-0.100.28-105611395
Ryan Tannehill2609134565.16-0.460.950.80-106223311957
Todd Blackledge103532883.18-1.33-0.200.16-1078-117217
David Klingler87927663.15-1.52-0.35-0.11-1080-230-34
Blake Bortles129562604.83-0.880.550.30-1081726408
Bob Avellini132435302.67-1.07-0.140.70-1089-72951
Joe Kapp114634102.98-1.11-0.090.69-1092-5816
Jeff Komlo5239381.79-2.40-1.35-0.93-1095-623-436
Stan Gelbaugh4656911.49-3.09-1.95-1.56-1103-691-553
Heath Shuler70621082.99-1.78-0.59-0.39-1104-334-209
Jack Thompson100031623.16-1.26-0.160.25-1106-105281
King Hill92022672.46-1.80-0.730.18-1107-366281
Charlie Frye82727543.33-1.58-0.35-0.11-1108-244-56
J.P. Losman116542873.68-1.24-0.010.23-1111130378
Geno Smith105946704.41-1.190.210.05-116121760
Anthony Wright74021672.93-1.93-0.72-0.48-1174-420-262
Hugh McCullough388-143-0.37-3.37-2.62-1.41-1175-917-502
John Skelton69124643.57-1.85-0.50-0.41-1197-308-248
Andrew Walter4036381.58-3.30-2.08-1.84-1212-764-676
Kent Nix73514531.98-2.04-1.04-0.20-1263-626-72
Chad Henne2219103154.65-0.750.600.70-127912151431
Jimmy Clausen55216012.90-2.56-1.19-1.12-1292-596-565
Akili Smith59013162.23-2.51-1.32-1.12-1298-685-579
Christian Ponder127855764.36-1.120.250.24-1304326318
Randy Wright125942163.35-1.18-0.050.36-13069497
Dan Darragh354-96-0.27-4.08-3.13-1.99-1332-1021-650
Randy Johnson155238702.49-1.51-0.510.38-1363-264744
Craig Whelihan62415232.44-2.27-1.10-0.81-1376-662-491
Tim Couch200479483.97-0.820.380.57-13857351066
Sam Bradford2562124144.85-0.650.720.72-140717671757
JaMarcus Russell79025213.19-1.94-0.66-0.37-1412-441-221
Dennis Shaw114327352.39-1.45-0.490.29-1415-435379
Tony Banks2829113144.00-0.750.440.68-142612041774
Dave Brown200773973.69-1.070.120.32-1439426749
Kelly Stouffer5177621.47-3.15-2.00-1.61-1439-898-715
Mike Phipps222557952.60-1.23-0.270.55-1442461405
Scott Brunner118936213.05-1.44-0.320.09-1451-252191
Danny Kanell106332813.09-1.65-0.47-0.21-1458-364-113
Kim McQuilken322-588-1.83-5.47-4.56-3.54-1483-1234-956
Jack Trudeau184462073.37-1.26-0.100.23-1540137612
Rick Norton441-102-0.23-4.14-3.16-1.98-1542-1176-735
Frank Tripucka178853502.99-1.24-0.180.68-1547271323
Mike Taliaferro107721902.03-2.01-1.00-0.06-1584-686167
Ralph Guglielmi81415141.86-2.47-1.39-0.47-1590-876-254
Dan Pastorini3517102212.91-0.910.050.86-16228493089
Trent Dilfer3683141463.84-0.940.260.48-169813842033
David Carr2839107263.78-1.080.130.37-17997661319
Joey Harrington2804114554.09-0.780.440.67-179911781764
Blaine Gabbert127347803.75-1.78-0.40-0.46-1891-336-414
Gary Huff92011381.24-2.43-1.51-0.51-1950-1214-387
Ryan Leaf77914761.89-2.84-1.65-1.44-2065-1201-1045
Kyle Boller181862213.42-1.52-0.29-0.02-2077-305104
Mark Sanchez2590114794.43-0.990.360.44-20859881175
Rick Mirer248489463.60-1.140.040.26-2152262730

By virtue of the longest sustained peak of any quarterback in history, Manning runs away with first place. Tom Brady and Drew Brees, however, are still playing well and could very easily move into second and third place some time this year.

The cascading method is meant to give more credit to peak performance than career longevity. That’s why Steve Young and Joe Montana switched places on the list. Montana never had a negative season, but he also never had peak seasons as highly rated as Young’s. With the successor’s poor Tampa performances mitigated, he jumps ahead in the rankings.

Many advanced stats aficionados love to deride Brett Favre, calling him a compiler or worse. With stat heads so firmly on the side of calling him a compiler, you’d expect to see Favre drop significantly once we cascade his stats. I guess Favre didn’t get the memo, because he actually moved up four spots after minimizing the effect of his worst years.

Aaron RodgersAaron Rodgers is an interesting case. Having sat behind Favre for three years before becoming a starter, and having not yet reached the steep decline phase, he basically has produced and entire career of prime seasons. Generally, quarterbacks around the age of 32 (Rodgers’s age) are going to be at or around the top of most career efficiency boards. They’ve had the benefit of playing in the most passer-friendly era in history and not having left their prime yet.3 Rodgers currently has a Val/P of 1.63, which is among the highest ever. If he can maintain that rate over another 1500 plays, he will have over ten thousand career Total Adjusted Yards over average. However, if 2015 was a sign of a decline and not just an outlier season, and he somehow brings his career Val/P below 1.10 in the next 1500 plays, Rodgers will actually lose career value. He will still gain in value over replacement, which has a lower baseline, but his hypothetical decline could actually move him back below Favre on the career list.

That’s all for now. Leave your thoughts, if you have any, in the comments.

 

  1. No one has spent 25 years as a starting quarterback, so I haven’t run into the problem of getting to 0 yet.
  2. We in the football stat community do this fairly often. Frankly, I think it’s fine. We’re not really doing anything all that important, and implementing a “good enough” solution is, well, good enough.
  3. No matter the era, a 32 year old almost always just finished playing a handful of seasons in the most favorable passing environment to date. When Peyton Manning was 32, he had just finished about a decade playing in the most QB-friendly environment in history up to that point. Now that Rodgers is 32, he can say the same. When Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck are 32, they very likely will be able to make the same claim.