Single Season Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

tim couch
Replacement Level

Last week, I unveiled the single season Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAY/P) ratings for every qualifying quarterback season since 1992.1 In that post, I covered production and total value relative to league average. Today, I want to add a new wrinkle and look at value above replacement level.

Replacement level is a well established concept in baseball, but it isn’t a very popular notion in football. Football Outsiders has done the most thorough and well-publicized work on the subject that I am aware of; their Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) is one of the premier measures of quality volume of quarterback play. In their calculations, replacement level hovers around 0.60 to 0.67 standard deviations below league average play. However, I believe their definition of replacement level is closer to what I would call “bench level” and that true replacement level should be a bit lower. I decided to use to separate baselines and see which is most appealing.

The first baseline is simply 75% of league average play. Here’s how that works. Say a quarterback has 600 plays with a TAY/P of 10.00 while the league average is 7.50. By value over average, he would have 1500 marginal TAY.2 By value over replacement, however, he would have 2625 replacement TAY.3

The second baseline is a little more involved, but it isn’t really all that complicated. It’s one full standard deviation below the league’s three-year average.4 Using the same quarterback in the same league as the previous example, here’s how that might look. Say the standard deviation for TAY/P in our hypothetical season is 1.75. That means the baseline is 5.75 (remember the average is 7.50). That means our quarterback gained 2550 TAY above replacement.5

With the expository information out of the way, let’s look at the results.

Total Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

The following table shows the replacement value stats for every quarterback season since 1992 (minimum 240 passes). It is sorted by the last column, but you can sort by any column you like. Read it thus: In 2004, Peyton Manning had 524 action plays for 6593 Total Adjusted Yards and 5731 New Total Adjusted Yards. That’s 12.58 TAY/P and 10.94 NTAYP. That gives him 3615 TAY and 3250 NTAY above replacement, using the 75% model (1). It gives him 3682 TAY and 3414 NTAY using the one standard deviation model (2).

YearPlayerTmPlyTAYNTAYTAY/PNTAYPRep TAY1Rep NTAY1Rep TAY2Rep NTAY2
2004Peyton ManningIND5246593573112.5810.943615325036823414
2007Tom BradyNE6237138612911.469.843627324134233193
2006Peyton ManningIND5736525577111.3910.073340317232213155
2011Drew BreesNOR6947817656211.269.453630313533342984
2013Peyton ManningDEN6847850650911.489.523733315532282810
2004Daunte CulpepperMIN6696929574110.368.583105254932122783
2011Aaron RodgersGNB5846860577911.759.893335289430882768
2011Tom BradyNE6757483613111.099.083406279031232651
1992Steve YoungSF5075366465110.589.172854257827712584
1998Steve YoungSF635625653119.858.362871249828362578
2000Jeff GarciaSF657635853519.688.142856245227472466
1994Steve YoungSF5505946495110.819.002980251028302455
2000Peyton ManningIND628597951909.528.262627242025272433
2000Daunte CulpepperMIN597570550479.568.452517241524242426
1998Randall CunninghamMIN4775173445110.849.332631233926042398
2005Peyton ManningIND4855290457110.919.422646239025272375
2012Tom BradyNE6777086592010.478.742924248026522359
2009Peyton ManningIND5846157511110.548.752759235926362341
1993Steve YoungSF5625635474710.038.452733234026172334
2008Drew BreesNOR6546568536910.048.212727221727202332
2015Carson PalmerCRD5656425553811.379.802825257023952319
2009Drew BreesNOR5435911489210.899.012753233426372316
2009Philip RiversSD5255828480411.109.152776233226632314
2012Peyton ManningDEN6086498550110.699.052759241325162304
2009Matt SchaubHOU6336401529110.118.362714230525852289
1995Scott MitchellDET650605052369.318.062480229823502285
1999Kurt WarnerRAM5515705464110.358.422840228627212262
1995Brett FavreGNB642623951729.728.062720227025852258
2014Aaron RodgersGNB5816556546111.289.402920249325262238
2010Philip RiversSD5956280510310.558.582742221726432226
2009Aaron RodgersGNB632627751959.938.222593221124672198
2004Donovan McNabbPHI5315410453310.198.542365199124602185
2003Peyton ManningIND602583249059.698.152622226924212176
2009Brett FavreMIN5675872485810.368.572569218224542168
2004Trent GreenKC601579448079.648.002343192624552150
2005Carson PalmerCIN544531646129.778.482342215822172148
2001Kurt WarnerRAM612593749029.708.012742227224922140
2008Jay CutlerDEN665615852189.267.852238200722452129
2010Tom BradyNE5345711470810.698.822534211824472126
2008Peyton ManningIND577561648039.738.322219202022212123
2012Drew BreesNOR697691957859.938.302625223623542119
2004Brett FavreGNB555534245669.638.232153190722582112
2008Philip RiversSD5245458453810.428.662378201323752105
2006Drew BreesNOR586581847739.938.152541208824392098
2002Rich GannonRAI692640952299.267.562580205324882091
2005Matt HasselbeckSEA494492543249.978.752223209621102086
2010Peyton ManningIND698646054599.267.822292206421932084
2009Tom BradyNE5995999492210.028.222507209323882081
2010Aaron RodgersGNB5555700476210.278.582394206823082078
2007Peyton ManningIND542540346329.978.552324209821712078
1995Erik KramerCHI572544746449.528.122305205521912047
1999Peyton ManningIND582542945499.337.822392205622772036
1992Dan MarinoMIA602519244788.627.442185199521102023
2009Tony RomoDAL5996022485210.058.102530202124112011
2012Matt RyanATL666659655129.908.282491211922342010
2000Rich GannonRAI590536645849.097.772209197321231993
2015Cam NewtonCAR645638156489.898.762254224817801973
2003Steve McNairTEN4474501399310.078.932113203519681967
2014Ben RoethlisbergerPIT6496748556210.408.572678223922461962
2008Chad PenningtonMIA513511343409.978.462093186520941958
2007Tony RomoDAL569549046319.658.142255196620971949
2004Tom BradyNE515488642229.498.201924175320251945
2013Philip RiversSD5966302516510.578.672696222522751942
2000Elvis GrbacKC606540745858.927.572162190120761924
2003Trent GreenKC561547344549.767.942480199322951912
2009Ben RoethlisbergerPIT580563346579.718.032246191421361906
2013Drew BreesNOR702698656989.958.122734223122431902
1998Vinny TestaverdeNYJ4644662389710.058.402181183421631900
2005Tom BradyNE577546245109.477.822305190021751897
1997Brett FavreGNB596523344688.787.502121188820071894
2012Aaron RodgersGNB641632352569.868.202370198821251884
1999Steve BeuerleinCAR648565846768.737.222271189321481877
2001Steve McNairTEN543484443218.927.961995198317871869
2002Trent GreenKC527514442369.768.042227181821581846
1996Mark BrunellJAX687559548548.147.071999191018121843
2008Kurt WarnerCRD626582647409.317.572136171121431832
1997Mark BrunellJAX516473840539.187.852045182019451825
2011Matthew StaffordDET716671155129.377.702355194320861820
2004Jake PlummerDEN581524543819.037.541899158920171812
1995Troy AikmanDAL467458739299.828.412020181419291808
2002Peyton ManningIND639554146998.677.351993176219201802
2002Chad PenningtonNYJ4434551381010.278.602099177920411801
2006Marc BulgerRAM639568647138.907.382098177520011796
2014Peyton ManningDEN6196232522410.078.442343205119381790
2004Marc BulgerRAM540494541789.167.741836158419451790
2015Russell WilsonSEA6146191528210.088.602264204318111784
1998Steve McNairTEN602502743668.357.251793168017851775
2011Eli ManningNYG631611550289.697.972279188420391775
2002Michael VickATL554485342858.767.731776174117141773
1994Dan MarinoMIA655562947248.597.212065179219181752
2005Trent GreenKC558516242669.257.642105173919831738
2002Steve McNairTEN578496043538.587.531748169616851732
2012Robert GriffinWAS532529945269.968.512016181418141728
2011Matt RyanATL604573348419.498.012057183218321727
2004Drew BreesSD450439137129.768.251803155218911722
1996Vinny TestaverdeBAL617531744198.627.162093177319201714
1992Troy AikmanDAL533461038778.657.271945167418821704
2005Jake PlummerDEN507478239989.437.892004170318931702
2010Matt SchaubHOU615573846709.337.592064167319791697
2015Tom BradyNE680676555669.958.182416197319141692
2008Aaron RodgersGNB613536345378.757.401740156817561690
2010Josh FreemanTB560521443979.317.851867167017911689
2006Carson PalmerCIN568504242768.887.531850166417661683
2010Michael VickPHI494479940719.718.241848166717791682
1993John ElwayDEN634527944018.336.941980166318741679
2011Tony RomoDAL567560345959.888.102156177119411672
1993Troy AikmanDAL450421436049.368.011877166617971671
2001Rich GannonRAI639539245468.447.112037178617951661
2010Matt RyanATL620536546578.657.511651163415751659
1996Brett FavreGNB632529344288.387.011988171618131658
1999Rich GannonRAI610523442898.587.032041166619301655
2002Jeff GarciaSF606518644008.567.261818161217521652
2010Ben RoethlisbergerPIT4374472375810.238.601864163218011645
1995John ElwayDEN605527143908.717.261937164118271643
2004Jake DelhommeCAR585488242288.357.231504141216321641
2007David GarrardJAX3823913343010.248.981739164016351630
2014Drew BreesNOR706665355449.427.852210191717551627
1997Steve YoungSF441433835279.848.002039161719511623
2014Andrew LuckIND693659054579.517.872230189817831613
2000Brian GrieseDEN3823853328210.098.591808159017531605
2007Carson PalmerCIN597524344168.787.401837161116831602
1993Jeff HostetlerRAI512429638008.397.421629159115461602
1998Chris ChandlerATL408400333559.818.221817153718051599
2007Brett FavreGNB560529942349.467.562112160419601595
2008Donovan McNabbPHI623538744858.657.201703146417211591
2011Cam NewtonCAR668601550339.007.531943169917001589
2012Cam NewtonCAR636585649329.217.751924168316901587
2001Jeff GarciaSF602515643018.567.141995170017671583
1998Doug FlutieBUF414391033629.448.121690151716801580
2008Matt RyanATL483452438229.377.911673148516821579
2007Derek AndersonCLE552492341778.927.571775158516321576
2000Kurt WarnerRAM3854056326310.548.481998155719401573
2013Nick FolesPHI3874406366511.399.472061175417911572
1992Jim KellyBUF513423036638.257.141659153916041571
2014Tony RomoDAL4765047421010.608.842057176917451570
1997John ElwayDEN586482640918.246.981758154616541560
2007Drew BreesNOR680581847628.567.001937156217631558
2003Daunte CulpepperMIN559490340908.777.321908162917361556
2011Philip RiversSD621582047409.377.632039164118091539
1995Jim EverettNOR618515343398.347.021742152816351533
2007Matt HasselbeckSEA617531744398.627.191795153716381531
1998Brett FavreGNB629518342338.246.731803141817951526
1995Dan MarinoMIA515465338559.037.491816151517211517
1997Dan MarinoMIA586482540468.236.901757150016531515
2012Matthew StaffordDET783670956298.577.191857162015801511
2015Drew BreesNOR663648852859.797.972245177917591508
1997Kordell StewartPIT548445538728.137.071583149214891506
2014Tom BradyNE624593949649.527.962011175916101503
2007Ben RoethlisbergerPIT478433237559.067.851605151014821502
1998John ElwayDEN411373432699.097.951527143615201500
1999Brad JohnsonWAS574488039788.506.931874150717711499
1995Steve YoungSF522466538678.947.411789149416941497
2003Matt HasselbeckSEA580502741258.677.111919157017411497
1996John ElwayDEN542458938688.477.141753154116051492
1999Mark BrunellJAX517425237258.227.201539150114521492
1992Bobby HebertNOR469412633948.807.241780145217251481
2014Matt RyanATL684635152739.297.712043175716061479
2006Philip RiversSD512452838118.847.441649145415751473
1995Jeff GeorgeATL627532743198.506.891869146417581472
2012Tony RomoDAL697614951338.827.361834156615841467
1995Warren MoonMIN677544845388.056.701708145415941465
2004Ben RoethlisbergerPIT354350930309.918.561471133015421465
1997Jeff GeorgeRAI596480040268.056.761677143515741453
1994Brett FavreGNB655540244148.256.741832147316911442
2004Matt HasselbeckSEA518441837308.537.201428123515401439
2002Matt HasselbeckSEA481429536188.937.521623140415691437
2010Kyle OrtonDEN548486740798.887.441586140515171430
2008Jake DelhommeCAR440410034669.327.881501133515111422
2002Drew BledsoeBUF686544945287.946.601628136215621418
2012Russell WilsonSEA510475740999.338.041603149414171416
2003Aaron BrooksNOR594483741088.146.921646148914721416
2001Peyton ManningIND611506641698.296.821854152416261411
2009Eli ManningNYG548490240108.957.321691140815981410
2006Tony RomoDAL381366331379.618.231522138514661397
2006Donovan McNabbPHI3633752305410.348.411716138516591396
2002Kerry CollinsNYG607503941468.306.831662134716001394
2000Mark BrunellJAX614472540847.706.651419135113501388
2011Michael VickPHI512474840269.277.861627147114411387
1996Drew BledsoeNE677523743457.746.421686143015091377
1996Steve YoungSF402370031339.207.791598140914871371
2010Drew BreesNOR685572546778.366.831617132615381365
1997Drew BledsoeNE580463838668.006.661598134214991361
1995Vinny TestaverdeCLE427389432999.127.721540135814631360
1994Jim EverettNOR576483839728.406.901698138615741358
2015Ben RoethlisbergerPIT494489341599.908.421729154713691344
2011Ben RoethlisbergerPIT569520942709.157.501741142815341337
2001Kordell StewartPIT567451238967.966.871526144213201337
2015Kirk CousinsWAS585562346699.617.981875157414501336
2001Brett FavreGNB570484239098.496.861847144116331336
1995Neil O'DonnellPIT455401634018.837.471506133214261335
2015Jameis WinstonTB603552647699.167.911657157812251334
1998Drew BledsoeNE545430436777.906.751369123813691332
2009Kurt WarnerCRD539471038858.747.211549132514611329
2008Eli ManningNYG512431437048.437.231282122113011326
2012Eli ManningNYG566503043008.897.601525140513231323
1994Drew BledsoeNE757558647537.386.281440134412971317
1999Doug FlutieBUF592450438737.616.541391131912981316
2014Russell WilsonSEA593558446049.427.761849155414701315
2007Jay CutlerDEN525459537888.757.221598131814651314
2008Matt CasselNE610519541378.526.781586117316061304
2005Drew BreesSD540451737438.366.931547128914401297
2008David GarrardJAX640501542687.846.671217115712491296
1997Warren MoonSEA575455537737.926.561540127014431290
2010Matt CasselKC496448736879.057.431518126614551289
1998Troy AikmanDAL346323027779.348.031372123213661288
2005Ben RoethlisbergerPIT3103183269110.278.681483128614171287
2004Chad PenningtonNYJ413369431118.947.531311112313991285
2015Andy DaltonCIN4524593386010.168.541699147013691284
1998Mark BrunellJAX431362131358.407.271302120813001280
2006Michael VickATL552424837977.706.881130125010651276
1992Jim EverettRAM533410734477.716.471429123213791273
1996Jeff BlakeCIN665502541877.566.301533132213631273
1996Gus FrerotteWAS520427435438.226.811549130714111264
2000Donovan McNabbPHI700517743387.406.201404121413301264
2003Jake PlummerDEN342327528129.588.221441130613371262
2012Matt SchaubHOU576522242839.077.441658133514491254
1995Jim HarbaughIND402365430799.097.661437125113661254
2014Eli ManningNYG630576847469.167.531797150313981251
2013Russell WilsonSEA530489041149.237.761666148713091248
2000Kerry CollinsNYG598472538657.906.461508120014381239
2015Tyrod TaylorBUF504467941119.288.161445144410841239
2004Aaron BrooksNOR629472140177.516.39107597612261236
2003Jon KitnaCIN575455338407.926.681461130012951234
1993Boomer EsiasonNYJ536443235358.276.591639121215531233
2001Jake PlummerCRD589464538887.896.601543133513291229
1992Warren MoonHOO389336228128.647.231411119813711225
2004David CarrHOU577460637767.986.54126998914001225
2009David GarrardJAX617490641517.956.731277121411861224
1995Jeff BlakeCIN644504041467.836.441478120713741222
2006Steve McNairBAL500415334898.316.981335118212701206
2009Kyle OrtonDEN587502139898.556.791577119514821205
2010Eli ManningNYG569477739558.406.951364117212991204
1997Brad JohnsonMIN513405834157.916.661366118212811200
2005Steve McNairTEN514427535268.326.861447118813471198
2009Donovan McNabbPHI501444735748.887.131510119214271197
2000Trent GreenRAM284277424439.778.601250118212131196
2010Joe FlaccoBAL553469838698.507.001382116513181195
2014Joe FlaccoBAL600543045229.057.541646143312681194
2004Byron LeftwichJAX502391334067.796.78100798411241187
2002Donovan McNabbPHI448369732158.257.181202115011581184
1993Phil SimmsNYG465381431758.206.831388116113171178
2013Colin KaepernickSF536476540668.897.591501140811431168
2008Matt SchaubHOU421385531209.167.411367107813781165
1995Stan HumphriesSD534420935897.886.721255115411691164
1994Warren MoonMIN657506541457.716.311473118613431164
2012Andrew LuckIND703572548608.146.911360125411201163
2003Marc BulgerRAM586454138067.756.491388121612211150
2009Joe FlaccoBAL561469638118.376.791402114113141150
1993Jim KellyBUF531410134297.726.461327112712491149
1997Chris ChandlerATL424352029788.307.021297113412251147
2012Ben RoethlisbergerPIT491451037299.197.591471121612941146
2006Tom BradyNE568460137378.106.581398111313251144
1997Steve McNairTEN547406235037.436.401187111911011141
2015Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ628560747168.937.511574138711271138
2007Donovan McNabbPHI554452437448.176.761355113212211134
2007Kurt WarnerCRD481405133968.427.061301113111831130
1994Craig EricksonTB447368731568.257.061246114911541128
2002Brad JohnsonTB484404333188.356.851349108513001123
2002Brett FavreGNB596463138217.776.411308106712541119
2008Jeff GarciaTB425371430908.747.271199102812131116
2013Tony RomoDAL579516742478.927.341642137412551116
1996Dan MarinoMIA402349528788.697.161389114912821116
1999Jeff GeorgeMIN373324027268.697.311283111912201115
1992Mark RypienWAS538396833047.386.141260106312141110
2007Jeff GarciaTB366343328299.387.731344110712511104
1994Troy AikmanDAL405347629418.587.261266112311811103
2003Tom BradyNE583455437457.816.421418116612511102
1994Joe MontanaKC530433035068.176.621437112213271101
1999Steve McNairTEN419344229078.216.941242110011731097
2005Kerry CollinsRAI615455538757.416.301159107110511090
1996Troy AikmanDAL518396833567.666.481247112511161086
2003Jeff GarciaSF461377531738.196.881297113711631083
2001Jay FiedlerMIA550429435667.816.481395118011981083
2013Andrew LuckIND649559945928.637.081645136912141083
1999Brett FavreGNB658483739247.355.961374107712731082
1993Joe MontanaKC335296725178.867.511220106711681078
2011Matt SchaubHOU3143328269610.608.581416112913001077
2003Brad JohnsonTB606462538217.636.311362114011921075
1992Stan HumphriesSD510388731547.626.181323103112761074
2000Brett FavreGNB640475938827.446.071309102412411072
2005Eli ManningNYG602455937987.576.311238105411291072
1993Neil O'DonnellPIT553422334457.646.231333104412531070
2015Matt RyanATL667583248698.747.301546133010741069
2002Aaron BrooksNOR620463838787.486.251177101011251067
2000Steve McNairTEN492386532197.866.541216102511611058
2013Cam NewtonCAR613523943718.557.131502132710971056
2002Brian GrieseDEN498404733138.136.651273101412251055
1999Jeff GarciaSF435350829318.066.741223105411521052
1993Steve BeuerleinCRD469361330657.706.541161103110941051
2008Tony RomoDAL486409633078.436.80121894512361050
2008Jason CampbellWAS573455437117.956.48115592211821050
2012Josh FreemanTB612515842698.436.971362113011501050
1994Stan HumphriesSD497395133027.956.641235106611351046
2001Mark BrunellJAX569416536137.326.35116011439621045
2010Carson PalmerCIN630494040907.846.491153100310891044
2002Daunte CulpepperMIN700502342087.186.01110996610571034
1998Dan MarinoMIA581424635237.316.06110991311171022
2000Shaun KingTB538394433847.336.2910429849871022
1992Brett FavreGNB552405332737.345.93127497112271022
1999Elvis GrbacKC544408833677.516.191226101611421018
2003Donovan McNabbPHI578441936377.656.291307107911441018
1997Troy AikmanDAL576414234957.196.07111198010241008
2002Mark BrunellJAX489389132237.966.59116696511201006
2014Philip RiversSD631554145048.787.141558125011641004
2004Michael VickATL472358230867.596.54848806960999
2015Matthew StaffordDET667599847978.997.19171612561240997
1992Jim HarbaughCHI436327027757.506.3610759601038997
1994John ElwayDEN598452837107.576.20125610141140996
1995Mark BrunellJAX452342130417.576.73917979848989
2001Brad JohnsonTB642462038867.206.05122810961006988
1998Trent GreenWAS600427035697.125.9510278721038986
2014Ryan TannehillMIA678572947478.457.00144412481026986
1994Jeff GeorgeATL586441136437.536.22120410021091984
2009Matt RyanATL481383432647.976.781005974934982
2013Andy DaltonCIN657561345338.546.90160912671174980
2013Tom BradyNE679572446498.436.85158412721136977
2015Jay CutlerCHI542496440609.167.49148511861098972
2013Matthew StaffordDET681584746518.596.83169712651246969
2006Chad PenningtonNYJ534414834067.776.3811339361068968
1998Jake PlummerCRD647451437486.985.7910158371029964
2006Damon HuardKC266258921739.738.1710929471055958
1992Randall CunninghamPHI531378031187.125.8711039031062953
2009Carson PalmerCIN515404533917.856.581015937940948
2012Joe FlaccoBAL584489340198.386.88127010231068948
2003Brett FavreGNB508404232457.966.3913109971164943
2013Aaron RodgersGNB3313394273310.258.26138210911158943
1993Jeff GeorgeIND446323628577.266.41900921841942
2008Kerry CollinsTEN434360229568.306.8110308461048941
2002Tom BradyNE665494439537.435.9412318731176938
1999Jon KitnaSEA562390833646.955.98945932864937
2015Blake BortlesJAX700581349248.307.0313071205820936
1994Jeff HostetlerRAI542403633957.456.261068953965936
2005Michael VickATL511369132507.226.36868920780935
1998Charlie BatchDET381299625747.866.75942866944934
2005Mark BrunellWAS508398532347.846.3711859181091933
2005Marc BulgerRAM321278723868.687.431020927958932
2004Vinny TestaverdeDAL545397233397.296.13811701944929
1995Steve BonoKC569418335097.356.171029908944925
2015Eli ManningNYG655570146548.707.10149111751029922
1999Drew BledsoeNE636456336657.175.7612139101118919
2015Alex SmithKC587524442598.937.25147411431057914
2002Tommy MaddoxPIT415330727967.976.74993879955914
1996Ty DetmerPHI459358329267.816.3711739461056914
1997Scott MitchellDET587406834486.935.87976883891914
2005Kurt WarnerCRD404331427428.206.7910899031012912
2002Jon KitnaCIN513381932387.446.31955866912912
1993Warren MoonHOO602408534946.795.80925873852909
2005Aaron BrooksNOR500374031737.486.35980893891908
2000Steve BeuerleinCAR639453537097.105.8010858501023903
2013Ben RoethlisbergerPIT637544443448.556.82156111761140899
2011Alex SmithSF523432535938.276.871127973947896
2005Jake DelhommeCAR475389130458.196.4112768801185894
2006Ben RoethlisbergerPIT534410033317.686.2410848591020893
2010Ryan FitzpatrickBUF500398033107.966.62976861924892
2004Carson PalmerCIN461342129277.426.35749699860889
2004Brian GrieseTB376316525488.426.789927331076886
2001Donovan McNabbPHI614446636577.275.9612239861009885
2006Jon KitnaDET685492440097.195.851046831974881
2014Ryan FitzpatrickHOU372350729439.437.9111611028926880
2002Jay FiedlerMIA330282423758.567.20986852954878
2001Doug FlutieSD599428135827.155.981115977909878
1998Peyton ManningIND612439835117.195.7410917571102877
2005Byron LeftwichJAX344282424328.217.07928867864874
2004Billy VolekTEN392305625967.806.62787703878863
2015Philip RiversSD711625149128.796.91168311321179861
1992Dave KriegKC498354128927.115.811030813992861
2008Trent EdwardsBUF422345228198.186.68951767969859
1996Scott MitchellDET510353630936.936.06849891728857
2005Drew BledsoeDAL568413534267.286.03997832899853
2008Tyler ThigpenKC499372031707.456.35755740784852
1992Vinny TestaverdeTB429305425997.126.06891810858849
2012Sam BradfordRAM601483740078.056.671104921901846
2009Vince YoungTEN314274823328.757.43904839855843
1997Gus FrerotteWAS449342027817.626.191061821990842
1997Elvis GrbacKC363284224077.836.63935824877839
2010Mark SanchezNYJ552420235027.616.34881795828833
1993Bobby HebertATL483342029017.086.01889801826827
1999Chris ChandlerATL355275423577.766.64886824831824
1997Erik KramerCHI529375531087.105.87970796892823
1996Brad JohnsonMIN360295924018.226.671070849977823
2012Carson PalmerRAI602502539818.356.6112908891082815
1992Chris ChandlerCRD478330927596.925.77897763862809
2013Matt RyanATL704575446168.176.5614571110997809
2004Kerry CollinsRAI549395232367.205.89767576902808
1999Jeff BlakeCIN482352428877.315.99986801914805
2002Drew BreesSD579422934267.305.92994744948801
2000Jay FiedlerMIA434318627057.346.23845767801799
2003Tommy MaddoxPIT570403133827.075.93954854802799
2014Colin KaepernickSF621496642448.006.8310341037658799
1996Kerry CollinsCAR414309325997.476.28916812813784
2014Alex SmithKC552481738468.736.971331997988784
1997Jim HarbaughIND386284824507.386.35818766759783
2001Daunte CulpepperMIN470347929037.406.18997861833782
2014Brian HoyerCLE482416834548.657.171123968824780
2007Jason CampbellWAS466357029737.666.38899771791777
2010Jay CutlerCHI516403332717.826.34931740879776
2013Alex SmithKC609498340668.186.6812661035868772
2011Carson PalmerRAI356318326028.947.311009820884766
2011Andy DaltonCIN569440436907.746.49918835729757
2000Kordell StewartPIT397285524967.196.29713724673753
2005Donovan McNabbPHI393314525328.006.44979741906752
2013Jay CutlerCHI385334528338.697.36998921744751
1998Trent DilferTB496340128836.865.81718652729748
2001Aaron BrooksNOR688470538516.845.601063852832745
2009Jason CampbellWAS585459835187.866.0111567231071743
2007Jon KitnaDET629449137057.145.89877726741741
2010David GarrardJAX455354929387.806.46814708768738
2000Rob JohnsonBUF397291224807.346.25771707730736
2011Joe FlaccoBAL592466037867.876.391034814836734
1992Neil O'DonnellPIT367268722307.326.08837700808733
2007Philip RiversSD503380731007.576.16923722808730
1997Trent DilferTB451324026767.185.93866706799729
1992Chris MillerATL292222619177.626.57755701731726
1996Jeff HostetlerRAI471336727897.155.92888754774725
1995Jim KellyBUF501363929987.265.98861706787724
2001Trent GreenKC597423134157.095.721075815870720
2011Matt HasselbeckTEN545445335278.176.471119792933717
1999Troy AikmanDAL482346327947.185.80924706853712
2012Andy DaltonCIN600476338627.946.441035778833707
2000Vinny TestaverdeNYJ628426234646.795.52867650810706
2007Matt SchaubHOU316259721948.226.94788704713705
2013Carson PalmerCRD619497740508.046.541197968795703
2015Brian HoyerHOU401344129878.587.45862859580702
1998Erik KramerCHI273225418748.266.86782649784699
1995Dave BrownNYG545379531666.965.81769671693692
1994Randall CunninghamPHI598409734056.855.69813702709691
1998Neil O'DonnellCIN386274123537.106.09655619662691
1994Jeff BlakeCIN362283823317.846.44858700787688
2014Cam NewtonCAR582458639177.886.73900910549688
2008Joe FlaccoBAL493369229767.496.04763572791686
1997Vinny TestaverdeBAL524358729486.855.63826655751686
2012Jay CutlerCHI497392232947.896.63834741667680
2008Kyle OrtonCHI506375430297.425.99747561777679
2014Matthew StaffordDET671554144018.266.561297931886679
1994Jim KellyBUF507357329757.055.87792685700674
2015Derek CarrRAI625515842338.256.771134909700672
1993Bubby BristerPHI348258621667.436.22764653717671
1998Rich GannonKC423301924877.145.88733585741667
2008Ben RoethlisbergerPIT537384231587.155.88647537682664
2006Matt HasselbeckSEA415296525597.146.17617637572664
2006Matt LeinartCRD409301825217.386.16705627659654
1995Jeff HostetlerRAI339263021927.766.47753644700653
2006Brett FavreGNB646466236027.225.581005600937652
2006Rex GrossmanCHI506361729597.155.85753613699649
2008Shaun HillSF327261221657.996.62673574688646
2009Chad HenneMIA484358529417.416.08733630667645
2003Byron LeftwichJAX462332327367.195.92831687705642
1995Gus FrerotteWAS441315726427.165.99711624647640
2006Vince YoungTEN456319527147.015.95613601565632
2015Marcus MariotaTEN438371831268.497.14901800594631
2004Joey HarringtonDET558387830936.955.54637385778626
1996Mike TomczakPIT439313125497.135.81820651714625
1999Brian GrieseDEN525352628876.725.50755610683620
2001Chris ChandlerATL431319525627.415.94919686769616
1996Jim HarbaughIND489338727596.935.64811643694615
1999Gus FrerotteDET331248520437.516.17742611692614
2010Chad HenneMIA543393332377.245.96662569614611
1996Stan HumphriesSD457317326136.945.72766637657610
2006Jake DelhommeCAR457337626967.395.90792578740610
2006David GarrardJAX299239019747.996.60702591666608
2006Eli ManningNYG556383531446.905.65684563629606
2015Aaron RodgersGNB663539243808.136.611121850663602
2004Drew BledsoeBUF494335727766.805.62487381612592
2000Drew BledsoeNE623418633286.725.34817534762592
2003Jake DelhommeCAR503363128717.225.71918638781591
1995Chris ChandlerHOO405285724277.055.99610575552588
2010Shaun HillDET450352827617.846.14824553777585
1997Neil O'DonnellNYJ537347029046.465.41635551563585
1996Boomer EsiasonCRD371274722067.405.94795603704580
1993Stan HumphriesSD350244420816.985.95609559564578
2001Kerry CollinsNYG643432734746.735.40922668707571
1999Charlie BatchDET334248120137.436.03722568672571
1999Dan MarinoMIA384269822297.035.80674566618570
2010Jon KitnaDAL364302323288.306.39838543798568
1996Dave KriegCHI407288523517.095.78742592644567
1997Tony BanksRAM577378630566.565.30741526663564
2000Jeff BlakeNOR383276322467.215.86696533658564
2012Ryan TannehillMIA550413134557.516.28709626529562
1999Kerry CollinsNYG366268021407.325.85752555698559
2015Ryan TannehillMIA654525642818.046.551042799591555
2005Brad JohnsonMIN326248420287.626.22685541627552
2007Vince YoungTEN484340328267.035.84623535517545
2003Chad PenningtonNYJ336254920687.596.15738579645545
1993Jim McMahonMIN387264322076.835.70613521565545
2011Jay CutlerCHI350287223478.216.70731592611542
1994Rick MirerSEA442298625436.765.75559546482537
2003Kerry CollinsNYG539357929706.645.51664574525527
2007Tarvaris JacksonMIN349260521717.466.22604521524526
2013Robert GriffinWAS575441136317.676.31895765526522
1998Steve BeuerleinCAR409284422806.955.57633439641519
1997Jeff BlakeCIN401277222516.915.61660496601519
2003Quincy CarterDAL602394132476.555.39684569530519
2010Donovan McNabbWAS529393330757.435.81749475699518
1993Drew BledsoeNE477299125666.275.38483485429517
2008Brett FavreNYJ562401431257.145.56670377707515
2014Andy DaltonCIN549445735488.126.46983708649502
2008Seneca WallaceSEA267211617397.936.51532439545499
2005Brett FavreGNB643429734096.685.30734461634497
2013Ryan TannehillMIA673498841367.416.15867778441497
2010Kerry CollinsTEN295222519227.546.52451477422496
2012Ryan FitzpatrickBUF572444535027.776.12889558698494
2003Jay FiedlerMIA361258821277.175.89640525543490
1994Neil O'DonnellPIT436302924676.955.66637496559488
2010Jason CampbellRAI395307023917.776.05696453656481
2000Brad JohnsonWAS407287922687.075.57682447642481
2005Chris SimmsTB348249420567.175.91571466511480
1996Chris ChandlerHOO373258421146.935.67619501530479
1997Jake PlummerCRD387253421506.555.55493456439479
1999Ray LucasNYJ324225818706.975.77550467503471
2011Ryan FitzpatrickBUF634473737397.475.90847548642471
1994Vinny TestaverdeCLE409301223207.365.67771472695464
2009Jay CutlerCHI616421333826.845.49573430499460
1995Drew BledsoeNE679426835426.295.22484421403460
2006Mark BrunellWAS282227217478.066.19680441646459
2001Charlie BatchDET386271122007.025.70670519538458
2001Alex Van PeltBUF333247319607.435.88714510598456
1996Kent GrahamCRD314221018267.045.82556469481450
2005Gus FrerotteMIA534353128666.615.37573420489447
2008JaMarcus RussellRAI413293423637.105.72478347504445
2006J.P. LosmanBUF509344127686.765.44556403506444
2004Kurt WarnerNYG326237018847.275.78480306559443
1998Kordell StewartPIT572339028995.935.07282316309437
1994Steve WalshCHI384266921786.955.67563443493435
1999Mike TomczakPIT289196616836.805.82442431401434
2007Eli ManningNYG571380831206.675.46522411403429
2001Tom BradyNE490337826416.895.39786504620429
1993Wade WilsonNOR456292723866.425.23531395478428
2011Kyle Orton2TM264218517788.286.73570454480417
1996Frank ReichNYJ363238820076.585.53474436389416
2002Jim MillerCHI342235219646.885.74440380414414
1996Jim KellyBUF435285523186.565.33561434460412
2013Ryan FitzpatrickTEN404317825927.876.41710579448407
2004Josh McCownCRD466294624676.325.29235205357407
2002Rodney PeeteCAR422280423146.645.48442357413401
1999Tony BanksBAL377250020296.635.38511394458400
2010Matt HasselbeckSEA485341727457.055.66495360452400
1994Boomer EsiasonNYJ487332126086.825.36647404562398
1995Chris MillerRAM458303924776.645.41494377432398
2011Matt MooreMIA404292924797.256.13452450320396
1992Rich GannonMIN349225518156.465.20491354468391
1993Craig EricksonTB518316626076.115.03439343384383
2014Mark SanchezPHI355295623508.336.62712516493380
1996Bobby HebertATL530349627036.605.10700403578380
2002Tim CouchCLE491318226056.485.30432325400379
2010Alex SmithSF376285421967.595.84593349556378
1999Billy Joe TolliverNOR313205117296.555.52399372356377
2014Teddy BridgewaterMIN481379030437.886.33745555453375
2001Brian GrieseDEN539347828086.455.21621454444375
2003David CarrHOU331239118747.225.66605405516374
2014Kyle OrtonBUF487386930727.946.31786552491370
1997Ty DetmerPHI277194315637.015.64484351444367
2015Teddy BridgewaterMIN526426633588.116.38879557514361
2012Jake LockerTEN379279723507.386.20440402315357
2012Michael VickPHI433317226297.336.07478401336351
2002Jeff BlakeBAL355239919576.765.51414311387348
2014Nick FolesPHI333271621928.166.58610472406345
2004Jeff GarciaCLE307208317006.795.54302213377342
2005Josh McCownCRD315217417696.905.61433329379342
2011Mark SanchezNYJ609428934767.045.71547408355336
2001Vinny TestaverdeNYJ490321325486.565.20617409455336
2001Elvis GrbacBAL516333626646.475.16601411431335
2011Josh FreemanTB619441735247.145.69615406419333
2015Josh McCownCLE334274422368.226.69595460361333
1999Jim HarbaughSD505311025136.164.98439317375332
2004Kyle BollerBAL529319826686.055.0411595259329
2007Chad PenningtonNYJ301210517456.995.80377320310326
2006Alex SmithSF506337326316.675.20504277455320
2004Tim RattaySF372240719606.475.27246155340315
1996Steve BonoKC486308424356.355.01518326408305
2010Sam BradfordRAM639436433936.835.31506242458304
2006Jake PlummerDEN357239719296.715.40375272338299
1998Jim HarbaughBAL356220118306.185.14272226284298
2013Sam BradfordRAM285230218348.086.43562414376292
2012Christian PonderMIN560409332377.315.78606350425291
1999Kent GrahamNYG332207817206.265.18325280280286
2000Jake PlummerCRD534327226306.134.92378231337285
2011Rex GrossmanWAS488351228017.205.74518345360285
1993Rick MirerSEA601347428655.784.77303232246285
2007Kyle BollerBAL314208817646.655.62284277216284
2009Alex SmithSF407279622146.875.44395267342284
1994Dave BrownNYG452288523336.385.16400286324282
2008Dan OrlovskyDET274187915536.865.67250217267281
1999Shane MatthewsCHI302204515846.775.25452274409280
2005Trent DilferCLE369251519506.825.28474261413278
2007Joey HarringtonATL391269421146.895.41448261363272
2003Patrick RamseyWAS379249419816.585.23446296347263
2012Brandon WeedenCLE565416532307.375.72648317464258
2011Tim TebowDEN419274624146.555.7617230740253
1996Trent DilferTB542323426175.974.83367262250241
2008Gus FrerotteMIN338231618056.855.34306154327235
2013Matt CasselMIN283218317617.716.22454351271231
2015Brock OsweilerDEN317249420357.876.42453348233229
2005Brooks BollingerNYJ331203417256.155.21201210148225
1993Brett FavreGNB610371228456.094.66498170436225
2014Jay CutlerCHI624476836817.645.90812445439220
2015Andrew LuckIND333247221127.426.3432634097214
2003Jeff BlakeCRD412255420826.205.05324248220214
2012Philip RiversSD586426132927.275.62611269423210
1998Warren MoonSEA296177414835.995.01170149180209
2015Matt HasselbeckIND279219617977.876.44400313206208
2001Tony BanksWAS446281422206.314.98450272303207
2000Chris ChandlerATL392242119286.184.92299170266207
1997Kent GrahamCRD279170714116.125.06235189197206
2001Jim MillerCHI435272521696.264.99419269276205
2006Joey HarringtonMIA413257920866.245.05236166197200
2007Marc BulgerRAM417260821646.255.19208186122199
2011Kevin KolbCRD294219117107.455.82390233292194
1992Jay SchroederRAI306170414415.574.71153158138193
1994Scott MitchellDET273160814305.895.2410719561191
2000Charlie BatchDET497294723715.934.77253138215188
1998Tony BanksRAM489285422915.844.6919880220187
1996Jim EverettNOR505295123995.844.75279205170186
2007Damon HuardKC371243819346.575.21305175226185
2013Case KeenumHOU282206017067.306.05336301155181
1999Trent DilferTB305186914976.134.91258173217180
1996Warren MoonMIN275168413856.125.03233193170179
2010Derek AndersonCRD357228219056.395.33129149100179
1994Heath ShulerWAS303187515526.195.12210181158177
2014Austin DavisRAM321243019567.576.09398296203175
2011Colt McCoyCLE547361429956.615.4724923881175
2006Brad JohnsonMIN486310123926.384.92343129298173
2004Patrick RamseyWAS299182514956.105.008844164173
2000Cade McNownCHI357209317405.864.87160139131172
2011Tarvaris JacksonSEA523357328646.835.48359229195168
2001Matt HasselbeckSEA399242519686.084.93309225179166
1992Jeff GeorgeIND347191915805.534.55159124143165
2007Trent EdwardsBUF290195915316.765.28294157230164
2005Joey HarringtonDET375232118596.194.96243140184160
2006David CarrHOU526334625626.364.87360111313160
2007Cleo LemonMIA362230218636.365.15220147144157
2015Ryan MallettHOU252181815917.216.3119425120155
2000Troy AikmanDAL285172514056.054.93183128159153
2005Anthony WrightBAL295181814896.165.05185139137153
1995Rick MirerSEA476284623065.984.84195118136145
2015Blaine GabbertSF331258320297.806.13451267222143
2009Mark SanchezNYJ416262521166.315.09167123117143
2015Joe FlaccoBAL437337426307.726.02558302257140
2009Marc BulgerRAM266175614006.605.26187128152138
2013Jason CampbellCLE344253319997.365.81429283209138
2013Mike GlennonTB474316327016.675.70257333-40137
1994Chris MillerRAM365232717926.384.91322138259135
2001Jon KitnaCIN633352529915.574.72154218-38133
1993Jim HarbaughCHI428238219705.574.601269783132
2015Sam BradfordPHI574442233987.705.92720335327128
2002Jake PlummerCRD610349728885.734.73664541123
1999Kordell StewartPIT353195716435.544.658910945119
1998Kerry Collins2TM414230818925.574.57602178110
2000Tony BanksBAL313186914845.974.7417580149110
2008Marc BulgerRAM486303423666.244.87134-15174109
1996Rick MirerSEA320185515075.804.7116511993104
2007Brian GrieseCHI284190414336.705.052738721195
2011Matt CasselKC310206916916.675.451671326792
2013Matt SchaubHOU384264621656.895.642952485188
2012Matt CasselKC313215217266.885.5120411510279
2013Terrelle PryorRAI381261221396.865.612792373879
1993David KlinglerCIN424240118975.664.471674012476
2007Kellen ClemensNYJ299184714836.184.96128656474
2013Kellen ClemensRAM278195915777.055.672591918174
2014Geno SmithNYJ448318425527.115.703422307667
2003Kordell StewartCHI327179715435.504.722588-5661
1995Rodney PeetePHI440258520595.884.68134368061
1994Steve BeuerleinCRD297170814035.754.7275572555
2009Brady QuinnCLE292176714386.054.924340753
1992Browning NagleNYJ438214218374.894.19-88-7-10050
2003Drew BledsoeBUF536307724795.744.62168864049
1992John ElwayDEN386205816225.334.2098-18247
2000Jon KitnaSEA499294322385.904.48237-720046
2008Derek AndersonCLE318188315215.924.78-12-341244
2012Chad HenneJAX349232918786.675.38156814343
2003Doug JohnsonATL272170912746.284.682396416841
2011John SkeltonCRD319211416826.635.27156775437
2006Charlie FryeCLE474278821985.884.6494-125433
2013Geno SmithNYJ549365030016.655.47282255-5932
2003Kelly HolcombCLE328193115155.894.62156547328
2011Christian PonderMIN346225518116.525.23131702027
1995Dave KriegCRD593356427196.014.58257-1418826
1995Trent DilferTB485276722265.714.5963-6624
2008Ryan FitzpatrickCIN458257221485.624.69-165-97-12321
2005Kyle BollerBAL335195015365.824.599304119
2015Colin KaepernickSF312222617947.135.75215132017
2013EJ ManuelBUF374251320376.725.45222169-1414
2003Joey HarringtonDET581335226465.774.55198506012
1997Danny KanellNYG328184814265.634.35115-147310
2005David CarrHOU542301524635.564.540-30-738
2001Tim CouchCLE543310124595.714.5321480448
1999Tim CouchCLE495269421445.444.3369-14136
2009Matt HasselbeckSEA544344725856.344.75228-291674
2002Joey HarringtonDET441257819965.854.53104-5779-3
2015Peyton ManningDEN346245319667.095.68222122-15-6
1995Kerry CollinsCAR499289022555.794.52108-4250-10
2012Nick FolesPHI294199115356.775.221622165-12
2013Chad HenneJAX565396330327.015.37500204145-24
2011Curtis PainterIND274178413826.515.04103314-31
1997Todd CollinsBUF460245319555.334.2516-70-37-31
1993Jim EverettRAM311169413035.454.1957-5824-32
1996Tony BanksRAM477253120585.314.313-18-95-33
2013Eli ManningNYG600398232096.645.35299205-72-36
2010Brett FavreMIN389251218396.464.73166-78134-42
2013Joe FlaccoBAL680455636186.705.32380210-39-59
2012Blaine GabbertJAX316196816026.235.07-1-26-102-60
1993Rodney PeeteDET331162513594.914.11-121-90-153-62
2009Josh FreemanTB334186815125.594.53-107-89-146-72
2011Sam BradfordRAM405245820066.074.95-33-35-158-82
2003Drew BreesSD389225916695.814.29152-6755-94
2013Brandon WeedenCLE303187915446.205.102331-168-94
1996Dave BrownNYG497257320805.184.19-63-85-164-98
2001Chris WeinkeCAR603327126135.424.3359-34-124-109
2012Mark SanchezNYJ502303125186.045.02-106-75-257-122
1998Danny KanellNYG336166313244.953.94-163-196-147-122
2014Derek CarrRAI643421634366.565.3412292-244-131
1998Donald HollasRAI325161012624.953.88-156-208-141-137
2009Jake DelhommeCAR351196615215.604.33-110-163-150-144
2009Matthew StaffordDET412242618085.894.39-12-170-58-146
1995Boomer EsiasonNYJ435237218265.454.20-54-178-104-149
1994Billy Joe TolliverHOO279143111145.133.99-105-152-150-153
2004A.J. FeeleyMIA389190815504.903.98-362-346-253-170
2009Matt CasselKC578318525695.514.44-248-214-300-172
2014Josh McCownTB386234419586.075.07-109-45-334-184
1997Kerry CollinsCAR434209216904.823.89-211-222-257-184
1993Mark RypienWAS344163911944.763.47-177-316-208-283
2002Chad HutchinsonDAL300137610674.593.56-309-330-324-293
2006Bruce GradkowskiTB388191814634.943.77-291-349-320-309
1999Jake PlummerCRD447204415964.573.57-332-357-377-334
2015Nick FolesRAM358229416616.414.64-18-252-260-379
1998Craig WhelihanSD353152111144.313.16-401-487-380-405
2000Akili SmithCIN344136410973.973.19-507-454-527-414
2005Kyle OrtonCHI411180314384.393.50-487-456-539-424
1992Stan GelbaughSEA30510887903.572.59-467-498-473-454
2000Ryan LeafSD381157612184.143.20-498-501-518-455
2014Blake BortlesJAX582359727666.184.75-111-266-440-462
2006Andrew WalterRAI334131310443.933.13-591-516-613-481
1992Boomer EsiasonCIN31811447643.602.40-478-581-484-533
1998Ryan LeafSD2949976903.392.35-605-645-587-576
2002David CarrHOU577259320354.493.53-667-669-677-581
2009JaMarcus RussellRAI29010487343.612.53-673-662-700-642
2010Jimmy ClausenCAR352147210504.182.98-661-693-680-652
2011Blaine GabbertJAX486237317834.883.67-630-682-766-723

As you may expect, TAY/P and NTAYP, like all passing stats, have gradually improved since 1992. This means that baselines for more recent passing seasons will get more significant deductions from the 75% method (because taking 25% from a bigger number gives a greater difference than does taking 25% from a smaller number, and because the aforementioned rise in passing stats means there has been a linear increase from smaller to bigger averages in the last 24 seasons.

Standard deviations, on the other hand, don’t seem to follow a particular pattern. For both rate stats, standard deviations undulate from season to season. The only pattern I have noticed at all is that, in all 24 seasons, New TAY/P is steadier than regular TAY/P. This suggests that areas over which quarterbacks have more control (in this case, air yards) are less likely to see wide fluctuations than are areas that are out of QB’s hands (in this case, a large chunk of the variance in YAC).

One interesting example of how this plays out is the 2004 and 2013 seasons from the elder Manning. His 2004 campaign ranks first when you sort by the last three columns, but his 2013 bout jumps to the top when you sort by “Rep TAY1.” The reason for this is that 2013 was a great and steady season for quarterbacks; it had the fifth largest deduction to reach the 75% baseline, but it had the third lowest standard deviation from mean performance. With the lower baseline, Manning’s sheer volume of plays (at a high level) is too much for any other QB season to overcome. By every other methodology, his incredible efficiency numbers make his low volume all but irrelevant.

Most of the usual suspects appear high on the list. In the top 25 (by the last column), you have 17 seasons from Manning, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Overall, this list isn’t too much different from the value above average metric I discussed last week. The real difference you’ll see will be in the career stats, where high volume passers like Brett Favre, Drew Bledsoe, and Vinny Testaverde will fare quite a bit better than they did in the career value over average metric.

 

  1. I stopped at 1992 because I don’t have air/YAC splits prior to that, and New TAY/P doesn’t exist without that information.
  2. 10.00 – 7.50 = 2.50; 2.50 * 600 = 1500.
  3. 75% of 7.50 is 5.625; 10.00 – 5.625 = 4.375. Multiply that by 600 to get 2625.
  4. For any given season, the preceding and succeeding seasons are used in the calculations. For the first year in the data set, no preceding season is used (because none exists). For the last year in the data set, no succeeding season is used (again, because none exists). This is basically the way Pro Football Reference calculates their standard deviations for their Passing Index scores. The use of three years instead of one helps smooth the data and provide a larger sample size. Also note that I use weighted standard deviations, based on number of plays. This keeps Matt Moore‘s 23.00 TAY/P from one play, or Scott Tolzien‘s -9.67 on three plays, from impacting the results just as much as Philip Rivers‘s 8.79 on 711 plays.
  5. His 10.00 TAY minus the baseline 5.75 comes to 4.25. Multiplying that by his number of plays (600) gives us 2550.