Career NTAYP Since 1992

steve youngYesterday, I presented the Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and the newer version, NTAYP) metrics for every qualifying quarterback season since 1992. Today, I’m going to take a look at the career numbers. Keep in mind that, since this study only goes back to 1992, it ignores the first sixty years of the NFL stat-keeping era, focusing instead on the past quarter century.1 From a practical standpoint, this means we can’t look at legends like Sammy Baugh, Johnny Unitas, or Roger Staubach. It also means we only catch the tail end (the past-their-primes end) of guys like Joe Montana and Dan Marino. You’ll just have to keep those caveats in mind when looking at the results.2

Let’s look at some stats.

Career Raw Stats Since 1992

The table below shows the raw inputs for every quarterback with at least 750 pass attempts since 1992 and is sorted by total plays over that timeframe. Read it thus: Brett Favre completed 6300 of 10148 passes for 71838 yards, 508 touchdowns, and 3557 first downs. He threw 334 interceptions and took 524 sacks for 3476 yards. He rushed 538 times for 1910 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 153 first downs. He fumbled 166 times in his 11210 total action plays.

PlayerCmpPassYdsTDP1dIntSkSKYRushYdsTDR1dFmbPly
Brett Favre630010148718385083557334524347653819101415316611210
Peyton Manning6125936671940539365425130319532458581876779914
Drew Brees5365805560903428297720533123632138741393918599
Tom Brady4953777758028428289515040225093241062171721028503
Drew Bledsoe383967004461125122042064673135359791101031237526
Kerry Collins34876253409222082025196337223033072710631396920
Eli Manning369562094419129420901993072137136661548986652
Donovan McNabb317053563727623417361174102626542353129219956308
Ben Roethlisberger347653784299027220961474392867253132915113806070
Matt Hasselbeck3222531936638212181815336022602621338893675941
Carson Palmer341354094003625919761662781933152545857665839
Philip Rivers346253284144728120531353251980184670363825837
Mark Brunell276146363207218415751083902395489244315162765515
Vinny Testaverde2867489433967212165117125517022789691273825427
Steve McNair273345283130417415661192541567612364537277995394
Jon Kitna267744332974516914821653231987266100911731095022
Jake Plummer248443422925316114051612841735375190817144755001
Matt Ryan291545153275720216431072181446176890571444909
Jay Cutler27014336314082041510141285177725917249116834880
Brad Johnson266843192905416613911222511616248686875644818
Tony Romo282643213415424716491172481672137733545654706
Aaron Rodgers26334029323992571495653061917340227521160624675
Joe Flacco2479406228322162136210225718331817641392674500
Kurt Warner2666405132344208153312826016691333283271024444
Michael Vick18073201224641331058883161879791619536343984308
Jeff Garcia2264366125537161123783181947423218626163604265
Alex Smith2208360624344142114583325185633220308113604263
Trent Green226637332847516213711142591621202950663604194
Rich Gannon21313479241911521196812461388409192718117674134
Troy Aikman22803660258601341271951691081233537751434062
Chris Chandler204034542501815411641153272208275936774794056
Matthew Stafford224636772597616312989820513471527031258434034
Ryan Fitzpatrick208734612317815411371162051109332193613132593998
Daunte Culpepper2016318724153149115310629816964942671342021023979
Jeff Blake18273236217111341014992481550408203614141683892
Dan Marino216936282597515412571031459881184439513891
John Elway19223227235011521100862211580314121913100643762
Steve Young20273045247121811188722411267436250729185423722
Trent Dilfer17593167205181139891292631730234865570823664
Jeff George18253148225401281044882651890141269114583554
Matt Schaub20923250248511331210901781226119436441443547
Aaron Brooks1673295220261123968922351454331156313117643518
Warren Moon188331432164613410651001931335179487347653515
Jim Harbaugh16842842192099991784278156337217278109623492
Marc Bulger1969315222814122110793254186382345827423488
Gus Frerotte169931002129111410381062071328172345638653479
Neil O'Donnell1709294319727109930612291692196365338403368
Jake Delhomme17412923209751269711011681267107400739623198
Steve Beuerlein1613273419817121969942781685170438537703182
Brian Griese1752278719440119946991931326196623555513176
Cam Newton1440240818263117860641851424551326143248353144
Kordell Stewart131623531474677720841701048554288038209443077
Matt Cassel15162550170021018207719610912061066563512952
Kyle Orton161327061803710187669165101680352431352951
Jason Campbell1519250116771878276017010961881222682522859
Andy Dalton1556249318008124836731408131948301472242827
Tony Banks127823551531577706732271432243884655732825
David Carr1353225314452657067126715642691369994712789
David Garrard140622731600389795541791115319181317157442771
Joey Harrington14242526146937970985124770109436027252759
Chad Pennington163224581782310291564162965129516756412749
Elvis Grbac14462445167749980481129907163388736322737
Scott Mitchell130123461569295792811558821724851157502673
Jim Everett14102395160549178782115887117257016332627
Stan Humphries133523501608585780731321111122240541402604
Ryan Tannehill139222401546087772541841390131943554372555
Mark Sanchez1285225515126867488415810231264961349512539
Randall Cunningham1198203214561100678631851286289149112105452506
Sam Bradford13782281147907871752148102275333221362504
Jim Kelly131922171589399752861421028128318426422487
Rick Mirer1088204111969505947619910382381133965352478
Andrew Luck12242095148381017175511572216811471278322378
Boomer Esiason12162105136568469070107773136320235542348
Josh Freeman11792037138738165568112690170996485382319
Josh McCown116419541314273616631711138176955862632301
Jeff Hostetler109518981324682638621679522188591172342283
Russell Wilson112317311397410664834164982352249712137362247
Chad Henne1159193812931586236314993895392329172182
Erik Kramer1136194213143776466698632116181438322156
Doug Flutie10111806125127259852835372621297885302151
Jay Fiedler100817161184469576661147342088651179292038
Rodney Peete9831685115465353266179993153518445512017
Dave Krieg100917351201566587511531060123171325452011
Dave Brown89216341024844508581811005192669751372007
Tim Couch102517141113164487671661119115565238371995
Charlie Batch9081602110856150252161890140651645241903
Byron Leftwich9301602105325850742924521114391033351805
Colin Kaepernick815136010030564682613585326918691190301764
Kyle Boller861149989314845154123802141609242421763
Rex Grossman86315531023256495609269841157418321686
Derek Anderson8291527994358495557653067252531301670
Bobby Hebert88614881034069518657447685245119261647
Vince Young7551298896446445518344924115041285401622
Kent Graham694133978013938033100679121424538221560
Steve Bono74313398204444263456423100184616221495
Robert Griffin6791059809740375231017182301495873321390
Nick Foles7401226880553388277147675384531201372
Tommy Maddox6861197808748391549454161135111241352
Mike Tomczak6661184834244397506243089107016231335
Shaun Hill7381181805349387308352658350426241322
Mark Rypien657120473413135940543496269521141320
Chris Miller6351122733852346399065375307014211287
Blake Bortles63510777336463473510666599738250211282
Tarvaris Jackson64010617263393373590546124683644241275
Derek Carr6981167725753346255537946246017191268
Christian Ponder63210566658383503695501105663738201256
Craig Erickson5911092762541327388253577201122231251
Blaine Gabbert5951064642633289319968284398122251247
Billy Joe Tolliver5461030655834316389062369292529261189
Quincy Carter5429556337322853780441142527345221177
J.P. Losman5649436271332853410878992502339351143
Jim Miller61010466387363023140238545011201140
Brian Hoyer580999716338355266144138153116111098
Rob Johnson49480657953027023140817140877444141086
Ty Detmer546946635134317356738672177321181085
Damon Huard574944630333323269461241160011201079
Brandon Weeden559960646331317306645243219118151069
Danny Kanell4919565129312463463512415307191060
Trent Edwards563926603326289306948265346328141060
Geno Smith4938485836272753574509122647742161044
Patrick Ramsey51190959303527830795203010729281018
Kirk Cousins619944719647340304231527115514141013
Colt McCoy508840558626277237746091448233191008
Teddy Bridgewater551849615028290218355675425430101007
Kelly Holcomb565891591639293387154035381925997
Bubby Brister49485150603224426614527722112312989
John Friesz47285557053226926412664280714938
Wade Wilson46276351483325627664398034601912909
Shane Matthews4928384756312562434208361081914908
Seneca Wallace46878449473123919593395430912019897
Joe Montana495812555331289163220146109088890
Matt Moore4537685356332692866446341112723868
Kevin Kolb44975252062824725775173725922019866
A.J. Feeley425762461828229314427626611517832

This table is just meant to inform your understanding of the metrics below. No analysis needed or wanted here.

Career NTAYP Since 1992

This table displays the adjusted stats for every qualifying quarterback since 1992 and is sorted by marginal NTAYP. Read it thus: Peyton Manning had 9914 action plays in his career. He gained 41891 of his passing yards through the air and 30049 of them after the catch. He had 97322 career TAY and, after accounting for YAC, had 82298 NTAY. That gives him 9.82 TAY/P and 8.30 NTAYP for his career. Those numbers are 2.15 and 1.99, respectively, better than the average of the rest of the league. That means his total value over average was 21307 when measured by TAY and 19766 when measured by NTAY.

PlayerPlyAIRYACTAYNTAYTAY/PNTAY/PMTAY/PMNTAY/PMTAYMNTAY
Peyton Manning9914418913004997322822989.828.302.151.992130719766
Tom Brady8503302472778179779658899.387.751.551.311313811114
Drew Brees8599324332847080395661609.357.691.431.191233510250
Steve Young3722130361167636329304919.768.192.662.3298938627
Aaron Rodgers4675167071569246235383899.898.211.731.5280657111
Ben Roethlisberger6070241251887055875464409.217.651.201.0973066599
Steve McNair5394185621274244460380898.247.060.981.0652715713
Tony Romo4706186681548644343366009.427.781.401.2065725653
Brett Favre11210378723396690224732418.056.530.720.4980455487
Philip Rivers5837211942025354180440549.287.551.200.9270295397
Kurt Warner4444178721447239054318188.797.161.321.0258824524
Troy Aikman4062153811047933415281768.236.941.151.0946584414
Carson Palmer5839234001663650762424448.697.270.750.7544004369
Jeff Garcia4265136551188236198302578.497.091.121.0247874342
Dan Marino3891154561051932242269838.296.931.191.0746154154
Trent Green4194158321264335928296078.577.061.210.9850904098
Matt Ryan4909184841427343989368538.967.510.770.8037823918
Mark Brunell5515192531281943182367737.836.670.600.7033053841
John Elway376213628987330285253498.056.740.940.8635333231
Donovan McNabb6308193231795351029420538.096.670.570.4835753006
Rich Gannon4134128031138833097274038.016.630.870.7335803005
Matt Schaub3547133951145631677259498.937.320.930.7733132715
Russell Wilson22477326664821422180989.538.051.181.2026552691
Michael Vick430813065939934838301398.097.000.310.5913202543
Cam Newton31449909835428077239008.937.600.630.7919682477
Daunte Culpepper3979135411061232016267108.056.710.630.5925092335
Chad Pennington27499943788023407194678.517.080.930.8325502278
Doug Flutie21517555495717209147318.006.850.880.9718882086
David Garrard27719338666522905195738.277.060.490.7013661935
Vinny Testaverde5427192781468941469341257.646.290.440.3323981810
Randall Cunningham25068610595119085161107.626.430.520.5613001407
Marc Bulger348813342947227697229617.946.580.370.3512811210
Warren Moon351512864878226188217977.456.200.320.3111411085
Joe Montana89029782575755562688.497.041.321.121173996
Matt Hasselbeck5941202971634146775386057.876.500.170.171033980
Jeff George355413400914026450218807.446.160.320.271134957
Jeff Hostetler22838049519716926143287.416.280.310.41705937
Eli Manning6652255211866653841445088.096.690.100.13675878
Jim Kelly24879861603218398153827.406.180.310.33770831
Brad Johnson4818157871326736142295097.506.120.280.171334803
Stan Humphries26049562652319308160477.416.160.320.31843803
Andrew Luck23788107673120386170218.577.160.250.32585771
Elvis Grbac27379295747920536167977.506.140.390.261061720
Neil O'Donnell336811421830624599204467.306.070.200.20686671
Scott Mitchell267310191550119207164577.196.160.030.2581658
Chris Chandler4056149671005129509244847.286.040.160.16640632
Colin Kaepernick17645595443514885126688.447.180.090.34166602
Erik Kramer21567715542815969132557.416.150.260.24562515
Bobby Hebert1647582845121213798817.376.000.410.25671413
Jay Cutler4880169961441239912327068.186.700.100.08470386
Kirk Cousins101338123384905473628.947.270.500.33504331
Aaron Brooks351811886837525891217047.366.170.010.0930326
Jay Fiedler20386774507015055125207.396.140.140.16289319
Jim Everett26279205684919137157137.285.980.180.12463305
Kordell Stewart30778946580021324184246.935.99-0.200.09-629275
Andy Dalton28279332867623830194928.436.890.140.09390259
Steve Beuerlein318211695812223030189697.245.960.100.06305184
Brian Hoyer109842502913919877428.387.05-0.040.15-48159
Matthew Stafford4034127911318533976273848.426.790.170.0268483
Robert Griffin1390385342441159994778.346.820.090.0513273
Byron Leftwich18056309422313362112517.406.23-0.120.02-21939
Jake Delhomme319811875910024566200167.686.260.090.0128539
Wade Wilson90930082140637853087.025.840.010.03728
Rob Johnson108633982397767064727.065.96-0.110.02-12127
John Friesz93832692436676355457.215.910.070.026817
Mike Tomczak133549723370939577107.045.780.01-0.0210-21
Jeff Blake3892116531005828065230367.215.920.01-0.0256-69
Jim Harbaugh349210978823124454203397.005.82-0.07-0.02-256-77
Vince Young16225048391612132101747.486.27-0.27-0.07-430-109
Jake Plummer5001168791237436205300187.246.00-0.04-0.02-219-113
Ty Detmer108535372814756661596.975.68-0.07-0.13-74-139
Craig Erickson125146282997860971116.885.68-0.25-0.21-315-264
Charlie Batch19036161492413566111047.135.83-0.11-0.14-212-273
Steve Bono1495447037341041385466.975.72-0.22-0.21-333-315
Brian Griese317610478896223380188997.365.950.02-0.1163-357
Nick Foles1372409547101140790528.316.60-0.05-0.27-65-370
Dave Krieg20116675534013973113036.955.62-0.14-0.23-291-468
Damon Huard107934272876755061127.005.66-0.45-0.46-490-500
Shaun Hill1322393441191022781687.746.18-0.29-0.38-382-501
Gus Frerotte347912049924224917202967.165.83-0.12-0.17-420-600
Seneca Wallace89727262221627051606.995.75-0.86-0.67-774-603
Mark Rypien132039323409872770236.615.32-0.38-0.46-503-612
Shane Matthews90823182438596347446.575.22-0.62-0.70-561-640
Teddy Bridgewater100728403310805664018.006.36-0.51-0.64-514-644
Matt Moore86832992057605550276.985.79-1.03-0.76-897-661
Chris Miller128741483190852469296.625.38-0.54-0.53-700-681
Quincy Carter117739262411756363586.435.40-0.83-0.58-977-685
Jason Campbell28598067870422101177497.736.21-0.16-0.24-461-699
Drew Bledsoe7526262181839353556443607.125.89-0.13-0.09-972-701
Jim Miller114034572930747260076.555.27-0.64-0.67-728-759
Josh Freeman23197574629917764146157.666.30-0.45-0.34-1048-794
Joe Flacco4500147831353935999292308.006.50-0.16-0.19-738-849
Tarvaris Jackson127538313432914974337.185.83-0.74-0.67-948-851
Kyle Orton29519236880122711183117.706.20-0.25-0.29-733-858
Derek Anderson1670593740061186798647.115.91-0.74-0.52-1231-864
Billy Joe Tolliver118939402618740160926.225.12-0.86-0.73-1023-868
Bubby Brister98927002360612549456.195.00-0.91-0.88-900-872
Tommy Maddox135248933194880872116.515.33-0.75-0.67-1016-901
Kent Graham156046623139975781886.255.25-0.81-0.58-1257-910
Ryan Tannehill25558487697320104166187.876.50-0.49-0.36-1258-921
Colt McCoy100828902696716258147.115.77-1.06-0.92-1072-923
Trent Edwards106030203013736958636.955.53-0.88-0.89-937-938
Kevin Kolb86626502556608148037.025.55-1.08-1.09-936-948
Boomer Esiason23486858679816174127756.895.44-0.21-0.43-503-999
Brandon Weeden106932853177787262847.365.88-0.92-0.94-985-1006
Patrick Ramsey101833662564645751756.345.08-1.10-1.08-1118-1095
Kelly Holcomb99732742642623749166.264.93-1.09-1.13-1083-1131
Geno Smith104431892647722659036.925.65-1.36-1.11-1421-1158
Derek Carr126838463411937476697.396.05-1.11-0.94-1410-1190
Blake Bortles128238963440941076907.346.00-1.17-0.99-1503-1274
A.J. Feeley83225782040500839886.024.79-1.67-1.58-1391-1316
Rex Grossman1686584243901146892736.805.50-0.98-0.89-1649-1494
Christian Ponder125632173441868769676.925.55-1.30-1.20-1633-1513
Rodney Peete20176932461412646103396.275.13-0.90-0.81-1822-1630
J.P. Losman114333742897689154436.034.76-1.54-1.46-1756-1666
Chad Henne21826874605715664126367.185.79-0.90-0.80-1957-1753
Ryan Fitzpatrick3998120451113330568250027.656.25-0.52-0.44-2062-1759
Jon Kitna5022174891225634592284646.895.67-0.49-0.41-2463-2052
Tim Couch1995639647351208897216.064.87-1.12-1.04-2227-2084
Danny Kanell106028732256528341554.983.92-2.13-1.98-2262-2094
Dave Brown2007572345251196997075.964.84-1.23-1.09-2465-2187
Josh McCown23017549559315542127466.755.54-1.16-0.98-2665-2261
Alex Smith4263116311271332255258997.576.08-0.50-0.54-2142-2284
Matt Cassel29528604839921350171517.235.81-0.83-0.79-2446-2320
Sam Bradford25047299749118383146387.345.85-0.91-0.93-2267-2331
Kerry Collins6920235541736848314396306.985.73-0.39-0.35-2686-2443
Mark Sanchez25398500662617806144937.015.71-1.14-0.97-2893-2452
Tony Banks28258514680117419140196.174.96-0.92-0.89-2605-2523
Kyle Boller1763491440171024582375.814.67-1.77-1.58-3117-2794
Rick Mirer24786844512514349117875.794.76-1.37-1.15-3383-2844
Blaine Gabbert124731053321729556355.854.52-2.45-2.31-3056-2883
Joey Harrington27597475721817402137936.315.00-1.17-1.18-3230-3253
David Carr27897442701017301137966.204.95-1.29-1.25-3608-3481
Trent Dilfer366411708881022627182226.184.97-1.05-1.00-3855-3658

The names at or near the top of the list probably don’t come as a big surprise to anyone. Any list that relies solely on stats is going to be high on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Steve Young, and Aaron Rodgers. You may be surprised to see Ben Roethlisberger rate higher than noted statsheet stuffers like Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers, but that probably has more to do with Roethlisberger being an underrated box score hero than it does with the metric misdiagnosing him.

When we sort by TAY/P, ignoring era adjustments, Rodgers jumps to the top. He is the most efficient quarterback in the most accommodating passing environment in league history, so his place at the top isn’t exactly shocking. He still rates lower than Manning in NTAYP, which is primarily because the recently retired legend threw intermediate passes more frequently and more successfully than any other passer of recent vintage.

Seahawks fans may feel vindicated with Russell Wilson‘s rating in both TAY/P and NTAYP. His success here is twofold: 1) he is an efficient, albeit low volume, passer; 2) he has tremendous success on scrambles and designed runs. He is similar to Steve Young, except he’s probably a better runner and worse passer.

Speaking of Young, when we sort by marginal rate stats, he blows the competition out of the water. His TAY/P was an average of 2.66 better than the rest of the league over the course of his career, and his NTAYP was 2.32 better – both easily tops in the data set. There are reasons for this statistical dominance, aside from the fact that Young was, indeed, a historically fantastic quarterback. For one, because the data only go back to 1992, his dreadful Tampa Bay seasons are not included. Also, because his career ended abruptly (thanks to terrible blocker and worse person Lawrence Phillips), he didn’t suffer the decline phase that we see from most great passers. It is worth noting, however, that Young did manage to extend his prime to the age of 37 – well past the point where most quarterbacks would have retired anyway.

Troy Aikman often receives criticism for not having particularly impressive box scores. However, he ranks fourteenth in marginal TAY/P and tenth in marginal NTAYP (ahead of Greatest Show on Turf trigger man Kurt Warner). Obviously he is helped by the study cutting off his first two seasons, which were sub par, but the list does show that his numbers were as good as almost anyone’s in his prime.

Favre probably ranks lower than most fans would expect. This is because, despite his unprecedented volume, he wasn’t a very efficient player. He was still better than average in both rate stats, but playing for two decades with a revolving door of offensive teammates will take its toll on a quarterback’s numbers. If we were to look at value above replacement (which I plan to do later), he would rate much higher.

I think eighties superduperstars Montana and Marino deserve mention here. Although their peak years occurred before the early cutoff of this study, they still rank in the top dozen in both marginal rate stats. This is pretty impressive, especially for Joe Cool. Almost all of his plays in the study came after a career threatening injury, playing for a new team, at an advanced age.

With 134 names on the list, I could go on about each player. I’d rather hear your opinions on the matter, so feel free to voice them in the comments.

 

  1.  There have been 84 NFL seasons since the league began tracking passing stats. That means we are looking at just 28.6% of all tracked seasons (24/84). Note, however, that the increased reliance on quarterbacks means we are looking at a much higher percentage of actual plays by passers. I have 970217 QB action plays in my records, 458074 of which came during or after the 1992 season. That’s 47.2% for those keeping track at home.
  2.  A reminder on the formulas:

    Total Adjusted Yards per Play = (Yards + 20*Touchdowns + 9*First Downs – 45*Interceptions – 25*Fumbles) / Plays

    and…

    New TAY/P = (TAY – YAC/2) / Plays

    Where
    Yards = Pass Yards + Rush Yards – Yards Lost on Kneels
    Touchdowns = Pass Touchdowns + Rush Touchdowns
    First Downs = Pass First Downs + Rush First Downs (excluding all TDs)
    Plays = Pass Attempts – Spikes + Sacks + Rush Attempts – Kneels
    YAC = Yards After the Catch gained by receivers