New Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Since 1992

If you’re a semi-regular reader of the site, or if you follow me on Twitter, you’re probably at least somewhat familiar with Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). TAY/P isn’t as advanced as popular metrics like DVOA and ESPN’s Total QBR, but it is my favorite stat to use because it is transparent, easy to calculate on your own, and backed up by research.1 It also compares favorably with the more popular, propriety stats.2

Not wanting to give too much credit to quarterbacks for the performance of their receivers, I came up with New TAY/P and publicly introduced it at Football Perspective back in January. It’s pretty basic, counting 100 percent of a quarterback’s air yards and 50 percent of his receivers’ YAC. I could have taken a more rigorous approach to arrive at a number other than 50 percent, but simply giving half credit for YAC had the advantage of 1) being easy, 2) producing satisfying results, and 3) having inputs that anyone can find and use to calculate at home.3

The formulas:

Total Adjusted Yards per Play = (Yards + 20*Touchdowns + 9*First Downs – 45*Interceptions – 25*Fumbles) / Plays

and…

New TAY/P = (TAY – YAC/2) / Plays

Where
Yards = Pass Yards + Rush Yards – Yards Lost on Kneels
Touchdowns = Pass Touchdowns + Rush Touchdowns
First Downs = Pass First Downs + Rush First Downs (excluding all TDs)
Plays = Pass Attempts – Spikes + Sacks + Rush Attempts – Kneels
YAC = Yards After the Catch gained by receivers4

I only have first down data back to 1991 and air yards data back to 1992, so the latter year is the earliest limit of my data set.5 With that in mind, today’s post will focus on the highest rated single seasons from 1992-2015. Only quarterback seasons with at least 300 plays or 240 pass attempts (15 per game for a full season) were included in the final product,6 leaving us with 737 unique seasons.

Raw Stats Since 1992

The following table displays the raw input stats for the 737 qualifying seasons. It is sorted by total plays, but you can sort it by any column. Read it thus: In Matthew Stafford‘s 2012 season, he completed 435 of 723 passes for 4967 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 264 first downs. He threw 17 interceptions and took 29 sacks for 212 yards. He ran 31 times for 130 yards, picking up 4 touchdowns and 11 first downs. He fumbled 6 times. In total, he had 783 action plays.

PlayerTmYearCmpPassYdsTDP1dIntSkSkYRushYdsTDR1dFmbPly
Matthew StaffordDET20124357234967202641729212311304116783
Drew BledsoeNE1994400691455525242272213944400139757
Matthew StaffordDET201142166350384124316362571783065716
Philip RiversSD201543766047922922613402641137024711
Drew BreesNOR201445665949523325817291861877167706
Matt RyanATL201343965045152622517442981071055704
Andrew LuckIND201233961943742320818412464327052310703
Drew BreesNOR201344664951623924412372441671367702
Blake BortlesJAX201535560344283521518513204631622314700
Daunte CulpepperMIN20023335483853181882347244105610104623700
Donovan McNabbPHI20003305693365211811345262866296317700
Peyton ManningIND2010450679470033253171691333023698
Tony RomoDAL201242564549032823119362631671156697
Drew BreesNOR20124226675177432661926190416125697
Drew BreesNOR201146865354764627814241581790151694
Andrew LuckIND201438061647614023416271615028531913693
Rich GannonRAI20024186174689262261036214391663109692
Aaron BrooksNOR200131255838322618322503308035812413688
Mark BrunellJAX199635355743671920820502578039632514687
Drew BledsoeBUF20023756094359242181554369237121011686
Jon KitnaDET20063725944208212082263388281632911685
Drew BreesNOR2010448656462033236222518549019685
Matt RyanATL20144156284694282301431205251490105684
Peyton ManningDEN201345065854775528910181208-81111684
Matthew StaffordDET20133716314650292211923168278221212681
Joe FlaccoBAL20133626133912191892248324191381118680
Tom BradyNE201540262247703622973822520693146680
Drew BreesNOR200744065044232823218161091460189680
Drew BledsoeNE1995323636350713191162317020280411679
Tom BradyNE2013380624434325225114025615370510679
Ryan TannehillMIA201439259040452722412463374232511810678
Warren MoonMIN19953776064228332131438277338201013677
Drew BledsoeNE199637362340862720615301902427079677
Tom BradyNE201240163448273425582718216394112677
Tom BradyNE20114016105235392611232173331203206675
Ryan TannehillMIA20133555843913242041758399312451129673
Matthew StaffordDET20143636024257222091245254241112810671
Daunte CulpepperMIN20043795454717392241146238784152329669
Cam NewtonCAR2011310514405121173173526011971314515668
Matt RyanATL2015407614459121229163020623780811667
Matthew StaffordDET20153985924262322231344251311761144667
Matt RyanATL2012422615471932246142821023152173666
Jeff BlakeCIN19963085493624241841444278723172257665
Jay CutlerDEN2008384612452625222181169422152145665
Tom BradyNE200237360137642818414311903312012011665
Aaron RodgersGNB2015347571382131173846314463561208663
Drew BreesNOR20154286254870322281131235733045663
Brett FavreGNB19993415954091221942335223281420119658
Andy DaltonCIN20133635854293332042029182431962156657
Warren MoonMIN199437160142641820119292352755069657
Jeff GarciaSF20003555614278312051024155724144247657
Brett FavreGNB19943635823882332001431188422022147655
Dan MarinoMIA1994385615445330214171811322-6129655
Eli ManningNYG2015387617443635204142715711700411655
Ryan TannehillMIA2015363584420824193124542025149189654
Drew BreesNOR2008413629506934232171392128046654
Scott MitchellDET19953465834338322211231145361044128650
Andrew LuckIND2013343569382223185932227483904236649
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20144085994952322409331721741059649
Steve BeuerleinCAR19993435714436362081550280271242712648
Jake PlummerARI199832454737371717720492805121742412647
Brett FavreGNB200634361138851818218211341438148646
Cam NewtonCAR2015296493383735195103328411964910565645
Jeff BlakeCIN199532656738222817817241525330921610644
Brett FavreGNB2005372606388120202292417013670410643
Kerry CollinsNYG2001327568376419189163620639730923643
Derek CarrRAI20143485953270211631224149249701010643
Brett FavreGNB19953595704413382271333217391813178642
Brad JohnsonTB20013405593406131791144269391203194642
Aaron RodgersGNB2012371549429539211851293412762205641
Brett FavreGNB2000338580381220193163323627108079640
David GarrardJAX20083355333620151831342288653302317640
Steve BeuerleinCAR20003245333730191951862331441061109639
Peyton ManningIND20023925894200272131923145271562116639
Rich GannonRAI20013615493828271949271556323121713639
Marc BulgerRAM20063705804301242118493661053056639
Sam BradfordRAM201035458735121817915342441872167639
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2013375578426128205144228217111159637
Cam NewtonCAR2012280483386919168123624411775385110636
Drew BledsoeNE19993055393985191842155342421010118636
Steve YoungSF19983225174170362061248234704546359635
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20113535663832241782322148462260197634
John ElwayDEN19933485514030251851039293441530118634
Jon KitnaCIN2001313581321612171222518527731613633
Matt SchaubHOU200939657847702923015251493078073633
Brett FavreGNB199632554338993919413402414913621811632
Aaron RodgersGNB20093505384434301977503064433152510632
Eli ManningNYG201135958949332921616281991434129631
Philip RiversSD2014379570428631213183618925115098631
Carson PalmerCIN201036258439702620520262012061067630
Eli ManningNYG20143795964410302161428187638137630
Jon KitnaDET2007355560406818196205132018700417629
Brett FavreGNB19983475514212312032338223401331138629
Aaron BrooksNOR200430954238102117716412234618541413629
Peyton ManningIND20003575714413332131520131371161105628
Vinny TestaverdeNYJ20003285903732211792513712532037628
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ2015335562390531196151994472802215628
Jeff GeorgeATL199533655741432420011432702717026627
Kurt WarnerARI200840159545833022014261825110111626
Derek CarrRAI2015350572398732183133123022149079625
Jay CutlerCHI201437056038122818118382232620421412624
Tom BradyNE201437358241093322092113421770116624
Drew BledsoeNE20003125313291171641345264471582149623
Tom BradyNE2007398578480650240821128241122146623
Donovan McNabbPHI20083455663916231961123149341522117623
Philip RiversSD201136657946242723420301981251169621
Colin KaepernickSF20142894773369191631052344926521288621
Matt RyanATL201035757037052819992315827143094620
Aaron BrooksNOR200228352835722716515362365625922111620
Carson PalmerARI20133625714274242042241289723016619
Peyton ManningDEN201439559747273922515171185-6006619
Josh FreemanTB20113465453592161682229164452474259619
Jim EverettNOR199534556739702620114272102442046618
Vinny TestaverdeBAL19963255494177332001934270341882139617
David GarrardJAX200931451335971517010422366233833114617
Matt HasselbeckSEA2007352560396628204123320424104089617
Jay CutlerCHI20093365503666271702635204311821149616
Matt SchaubHOU201036557043702422212322261334079615
Kerry CollinsRAI2005302565375920181123926111441213615
Mark BrunellJAX20003115123640201771454289482362127614
Donovan McNabbPHI20012854933233251361239273824822278614
Russell WilsonSEA2015329481402434187845265885701315614
Cam NewtonCAR201329247033792416913433361006006453613
Aaron RodgersGNB200834153140382818213342314821242110613
Peyton ManningIND199832657537392619028221091562053612
Kurt WarnerRAM2001375546483036233223823328600310612
Josh FreemanTB201230655640652718517261613016301610612
Peyton ManningIND2001343547413126201232923235157497611
Jake PlummerARI200228452929721814520362484528422113610
Brett FavreGNB199331852233031916524301995821611314610
Matt CasselNE20083275133693211821147219502932237610
Rich GannonRAI19993045153840241951449241462982148610
Alex SmithKC2013308505331323165739210654391238609
Mark SanchezNYJ201130854034742617118392433011061310609
Peyton ManningDEN20124005814659372301121137626022608
Kerry CollinsNYG20023355444073191931424152392008607
Elvis GrbacKC2000326547416928197142921330110167606
Jeff GarciaSF2002328526334421171101793633623302606
Brad JohnsonTB200335456838112618421201111842046606
John ElwayDEN19953165423970261901422180411761179605
Matt RyanATL20113475604177292051226173181092115604
Chris WeinkeCAR200129354029311113719261773712861111603
Jameis WinstonTB20153125334042222011527190432315186603
Quincy CarterDAL200329250333021714821371856226222410602
Warren MoonHOO199330352034852117721342184814511213602
Peyton ManningIND200337956642672921010181071836036602
Dan MarinoMIA199233055441162419216281732066045602
Eli ManningNYG200529455737622417217281841794169602
Carson PalmerRAI201234556140182218414261991539177602
Jeff GarciaSF20013165043538321831226114722545219602
Steve McNairTEN19982894923228151601033176775594385602
Trent GreenKC2004369554459127227173222715940411601
Sam BradfordRAM2012328544370221185133523322140197601
Rick MirerSEA199327448628331214217472356834332013601
Joe FlaccoBAL2014344554398627194121916727832176600
Andy DaltonCIN20123295253669271711646229291374144600
Eli ManningNYG201331755138181817427392811044037600
Trent GreenWAS19982785093441231721149338421172814600
Tony RomoDAL200934754844832620393419617121156599
Tom BradyNE20093715654398282141316861855184599
Doug FlutieSD20012945213464151661825168531921127599
John ElwayDEN199430749434901616210463035823541711598
Kerry CollinsNYG200031152936102219513282434165157598
Randall CunninghamPHI199426549032291614613433336528832510598
Carson PalmerCIN20073735724131262132017119826035597
Trent GreenKC20012965233783171762439198351580811597
Daunte CulpepperMIN200029747439373319016341818947073611597
Brett FavreGNB19973045133867351901625176581871167596
Brett FavreGNB2002341551365827189162618819790610596
Jeff GeorgeRAI19972905213917291679584301744037596
Philip RiversSD201337854344783223011301502377053596
Philip RiversSD201035754047103023413382271767067595
Aaron BrooksNOR20033065143546241728341954618222014594
Dave KriegARI1995304521355416168215338019290216593
Russell WilsonSEA20142854523475201597422429986964513593
Joe FlaccoBAL201131254236102017912312031910911311592
Doug FlutieBUF19992644783171191561626176884761316592
Rich GannonRAI20002844733430281771128124895294349590
Jake PlummerARI2001304525365318177142920435163088589
Kyle OrtonDEN200933654038022118512291591877054587
Scott MitchellDET19972935093484191601441271378311315587
Alex SmithKC2015307470348620154745235725102304587
Jeff GeorgeATL1994322524373423184183220630660212586
John ElwayDEN199728050236352716911342035021811311586
Dan MarinoMIA1997319548378016190112013218-14008586
Drew BreesNOR200635655244182620111181051660058586
Marc BulgerRAM200333653138452219322372881888478586
Philip RiversSD2012338525360626184154931112560215586
Jake DelhommeCAR2004310533388629192153324619781912585
Jason CampbellWAS200932750536182018615432853720711713585
Kirk CousinsWAS201537954341662920411261861656588585
Joe FlaccoBAL2012317531381722174103522718383119584
Aaron RodgersGNB2011343500464345208636219482693185584
Peyton ManningIND200939357145003323716107435002584
Tom BradyNE20033175263620231751232219258011113583
Cam NewtonCAR201426244831271815512383009654654512582
Peyton ManningIND199933153341352619815141163573286582
Blake BortlesJAX20142804742908111321755345534220277582
Jake PlummerDEN2004303518408927184201590482151136581
Joey HarringtonDET2003309550288017147229552294076581
Aaron RodgersGNB20143415204381382195281743328322012581
Dan MarinoMIA1998310537349723173152317821-3119581
Drew BledsoeNE1997314522370628168153025828550104580
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2009337505432826202125034825982167580
Matt HasselbeckSEA2003313512384126187154224626135294580
Tony RomoDAL201334253438283119410352721047034579
Drew BreesSD20023205263284171631624180291401102579
Matt CasselKC20092714892924161281642243471920614578
Donovan McNabbPHI20032754753216161521143253603653269578
Steve McNairTEN20023014923387221781521121654563299578
David CarrHOU20022334432592911715764115828331621577
David CarrHOU200428546235311617314493016630702410577
Peyton ManningIND20083715534002272101214861031141577
Tom BradyNE2005334529411026193142618822921164577
Tony BanksRAM19972524873254141531343317471861915577
Troy AikmanDAL199729251832831916312332692579076576
Matt SchaubHOU20123505444008222021227216510004576
Jim EverettNOR199434654038552219318211641535023576
Jon KitnaCIN2003324518359126181153724920133079575
Warren MoonSEA199731352836782517916301921740137575
Robert GriffinWAS201327445432031615712382748349202411575
Sam BradfordPHI201534653137251916414282001549029574
Brad JohnsonWAS1999316519400524177132917726312312574
Peyton ManningIND200636255343973124191486652472573
Jason CampbellWAS2008315503324513162638266322731157573
Ryan FitzpatrickBUF2012306503340024174163016139204198572
Erik KramerCHI199531552238382920110159535391146572
Kordell StewartPIT19982524582560111251833211814062283572
Eli ManningNYG2007297527333623165202721717841913571
Brett FavreGNB2001314510392132187152215138561516570
Tommy MaddoxPIT200329851634141817117412421312005570
Andy DaltonCIN2011300516339820156132416029160195569
Tony RomoDAL20073355204211362151924176251352810569
Mark BrunellJAX20012894733309191641357387392241128569
Steve BonoKC19952935203121211611021158281135810569
Eli ManningNYG201033953840023119225161171587047569
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT201132451140772121014402691881069569
Carson PalmerCIN2006324516403528199133623316470615568
Drew BledsoeDAL2005300494363923177174929525592617568
Tom BradyNE200631951535292417612261752712201312568
Tony RomoDAL201134651841843120310362271356147567
Brett FavreMIN2009363528420233211734247511012567
Kordell StewartPIT200126644231091414511291759653753311567
Eli ManningNYG201232153639482618615191361140025566
Carson PalmerARI20153425314671352311125151939146565
Brandon WeedenCLE20122975163385141681728186211160116565
Chad HenneJAX201330550232411315114382432580072565
Brett FavreNYJ2008343518347222184223021314501410562
Jon KitnaSEA1999270495334623166163219835560314562
Steve YoungSF19933144624023291881631160694072288562
Joe FlaccoBAL200931549736132118612362182864088561
Trent GreenKC200333052340392419812201301889285561
Brett FavreGNB20073565324155281971515931329039560
Christian PonderMIN20123004832935181631232184452712117560
Josh FreemanTB2010291474345125166628195583730297560
Daunte CulpepperMIN200329545034792516911371967242342816559
Joey HarringtonDET2004274484304719138123619638185096558
Trent GreenKC200531750540141718210322042196098558
Eli ManningNYG200630151932442416318251861236059556
Brett FavreGNB2004346536408830202171293746024555
Aaron RodgersGNB20103124733922281831131193513694224555
Michael VickATL20022314162936161398332061057888459554
Donovan McNabbPHI2007291471332419152744227392460169554
Joe FlaccoBAL20103064893622251741040294241031109553
Neil O'DonnellPIT199327048632081416574133126111045553
Michael VickATL2006204388247420123134530311910432559552
Derek AndersonCLE2007298519378729187191410919823125552
Brett FavreGNB199230247132271815713342084719811112552
Alex SmithKC2014303464326518175645229432591124552
Mark SanchezNYJ20102785023291171621327171231153119552
Kurt WarnerRAM199932549943534119613292012392159551
Jay FiedlerMIA20012734503290201521927178733214266550
Ryan TannehillMIA20122824823294121511335234332242169550
Steve YoungSF19943244613969351881031163582937274550
Andy DaltonCIN20143094813398191581721124471844214549
Geno SmithNYJ20132474423046121432143315643726238549
Kerry CollinsRAI200428951334952115320251441141037549
Kyle OrtonDEN201029349636532017393424318104094548
Eli ManningNYG2009317507402127183143021611720413548
Kordell StewartPIT199723644030202114317201528847611436548
Colt McCoyCLE201126546227331414411321735322101711547
Steve McNairTEN1997216415266514134133119010167485016547
Vinny TestaverdeDAL200429749135321716320341822039128545
Drew BledsoeNE199826348136332016614362952844079545
Dave BrownNYG199525445628141114710442064522841910545
Matt HasselbeckTEN20113195173571181631419153964044545
Carson PalmerCIN200534550938363219712191051660165544
Elvis GrbacKC199929449933892216315261701910007544
Matt HasselbeckSEA20092934883029171461732209241210511544
Tim CouchCLE2001272454304017134215135338128079543
Chad HenneMIA201030148833011516819301782568055543
Drew BreesNOR2009363513438834210112013510452810543
Steve McNairTEN20012644313350211591237251754145315543
Jay CutlerCHI20153114823659211711129150312071188542
John ElwayDEN19962874663328261651426194502494196542
David CarrHOU200525642024881413511684245431112017542
Peyton ManningIND20073375154040312051421124612346542
Jeff HostetlerRAI199426345533342014916412324615921810542
Trent DilferTB19962674822859121501928207321240910542
Marc BulgerRAM200432148239642118014413021791375540
Drew BreesSD200532349735762418215272231654188540
Kurt WarnerARI200933950637532619114241729200111539
Brian GrieseDEN20012754512827231501938241501731157539
Kerry CollinsNYG2003284497311013159162816414520312539
Shaun KingTB20002334282769181421337240733535244538
Mark RypienWAS1992269479328213157172317636502114538
Neil O'DonnellNYJ19972594602796171337452893236189537
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20082814663301171621546284251112814537
Drew BledsoeBUF2003274470286011142124937117372515536
Boomer EsiasonNYJ199328847334211617011181394511811513536
Colin KaepernickSF2013243416319721147839231815344289536
Jake PlummerARI20002704752946131322122151371830128534
Gus FrerotteMIA2005257489299618142132615819730613534
Tom BradyNE201032449239003618942517517431103534
Chad PenningtonNYJ20063134793352171611630172251190127534
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20062804643513181782346280241062115534
Stan HumphriesSD1995282478338117170142319733531119534
Troy AikmanDAL1992302473344523176142311237105164533
Jim EverettRAM1992281475332322168182620432133045533
Robert GriffinWAS201225839132002015153021711182574012532
Jim KellyBUF1993288470338218169182517136102067531
Randall CunninghamPHI199223338427751912711604378754953413531
Donovan McNabbPHI2004300469387531175832192302303128531
Bobby HebertATL1996294488315222168252715015591510530
Joe MontanaKC19942994933283161729191321817027530
Russell WilsonSEA20132574053357261539442728155713112530
Kyle BollerBAL20042584552559131351135247392061911529
Erik KramerCHI19972754773011141581425149278321311529
Donovan McNabbWAS20102754703377141521537271221580810529
Trent GreenKC20022874703690261761326141312251111527
David CarrHOU200630244027671114112412404520321616526
Teddy BridgewaterMIN2015292447323114153944307352053177526
Brian GrieseDEN199926145230321413814271764613821616525
Jay CutlerDEN200729746434972017514271533421511511525
Philip RiversSD20093174844254282089251671660156525
Vinny TestaverdeBAL199727147029711813915201293413801211524
Peyton ManningIND200433649545574923210131011649045524
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JaMarcus RussellRAI2009120245128735811332071252099290
Mike TomczakPIT1999139258162512788151041619033289
Troy AikmanDAL200015626216327811413911013052285
Sam BradfordRAM20131592621687148541597839013285
Brian GrieseCHI20071612581803108212151141130036284
Trent GreenRAM2000145240206316945241452069163284
Matt CasselMIN201315325418071180916851362133283
Case KeenumHOU201313725017609766192011373166282
Mark BrunellWAS20061622591789880412921136045282
Kent GrahamARI199713025014084685161151323275279
Billy Joe TolliverHOO199412124012876677271661237287279
Matt HasselbeckIND20151562561690984516101725023279
Kellen ClemensRAM201314224116738807211381670047278
Ty DetmerPHI19971342441567780619941446146277
Warren MoonMIN1996134247161077491912296037275
Dan OrlovskyDET2008143254161687381495630023274
Curtis PainterIND2011132243154167191610415109075274
Erik KramerCHI19981512501823980710711317153273
Scott MitchellDET1994119246145610831112631524128273
Doug JohnsonATL2003136243165587212191211025123272
Seneca WallaceSEA200814124015321172314761381054267
Damon HuardKC2006148244187811106116106612009266
Marc BulgerRAM2009140246146957861485626016266
Kyle Orton2TM2011150251175899491054323024264
Ryan MallettHOU201513624213365766632416120252

Not much analysis for this table. I just want you to have access to the inputs so you can better understand the table below. Cheers.

Total Adjusted Yards per Play (and New TAY/P) Since 1992

The table below shows the adjusted stats for the 737 qualifying seasons. It is sorted by marginal New TAY, but you can sort and filter as is your wont. Read it thus: In 2004, Peyton Manning had 524 action plays. He gained 2832 of his passing yards through the air and another 1725 after the catch. His TAY was 6593, and his New TAY was 5731. He posted 12.58 TAY/P and 10.94 New TAY/P. His TAY/P was 4.86 better than the average of the rest of the league, and his New TAY/P was 4.49 better than average. Thus, his marginal TAY was 2548, and his marginal New TAY was 2355, best in the last 24 seasons.

PlayerTmYearPlyAIRYACTAYNTAYTAY/PNTAY/PMTAY/PMNTAY/PMTAYMNTAY
Peyton ManningIND2004524283217256593573112.5810.944.864.4925482355
Peyton ManningIND2006573288915086525577111.3910.073.853.9022072234
Tom BradyNE2007623278720197138612911.469.843.813.5423762204
Peyton ManningDEN2013684279526827850650911.489.523.342.8822821970
Drew BreesNOR2011694296525117817656211.269.453.112.7721561923
Aaron RodgersGNB2011584248021636860577911.759.893.593.2120961875
Steve YoungSF1992507203514305366465110.589.173.853.6019521826
Steve YoungSF1994550197919905946495110.819.003.512.9919281642
Peyton ManningIND2005485230914385290457110.919.423.543.3417191619
Tom BradyNE2011675253127047483613111.099.082.932.4019771619
Randall CunninghamMIN1998477225914455173445110.849.333.643.3417371592
Carson PalmerARI2015565289717746425553811.379.802.882.8016251580
Steve YoungSF199863522791891625653119.858.362.652.3716821506
Daunte CulpepperMIN200059726211316570550479.568.452.362.5014101490
Steve YoungSF1993562224717765635474710.038.453.042.6417061486
Philip RiversSD2009525220620485828480411.109.153.262.7917091466
Aaron RodgersGNB2014581219021916556546111.289.402.862.5216601461
Kurt WarnerRAM1999551222521285705464110.358.423.332.6518321459
Peyton ManningIND200062828351578597951909.528.262.332.3114611448
Drew BreesNOR2009543234920395911489210.899.013.042.6516511439
Jeff GarciaSF200065722632015635853519.688.142.482.1916311436
Daunte CulpepperMIN2004669234123766929574110.368.582.642.1417641431
Peyton ManningIND2009584240820926157511110.548.752.702.3915761397
Kurt WarnerRAM200161227602070593749029.708.012.652.2116231350
Steve McNairTEN2003447219810174501399310.078.932.883.0212861349
Peyton ManningIND200360224121855583249059.698.152.492.2315021345
Peyton ManningDEN2012608266519946498550110.699.052.412.2114671342
Matt HasselbeckSEA200549422561203492543249.978.752.612.6712881317
Carson PalmerCIN200554424281408531646129.778.482.412.3913101301
Tom BradyNE2012677249423337086592010.478.742.191.9014841288
Scott MitchellDET199565027101628605052369.318.061.921.9612461273
Matt SchaubHOU2009633255022206401529110.118.362.272.0014351266
Brett FavreGNB199564222792134623951729.728.062.331.9614941258
Brett FavreMIN2009567217320295872485810.368.572.512.2114241252
Tom BradyNE2010534189420065711470810.698.822.692.2814341220
Peyton ManningIND200754224971543540346329.978.552.332.2512601217
Philip RiversSD2010595235523556280510310.558.582.552.0415141216
Philip RiversSD2013596220422746302516510.578.672.432.0314511210
Peyton ManningIND199958223751760542945499.337.822.302.0413381188
Aaron RodgersGNB200963222702164627751959.938.222.091.8613191176
Steve McNairTEN200154323031047484443218.927.961.872.1510161169
Erik KramerCHI199557222311607544746449.528.122.132.0212201156
Drew BreesNOR200658623282090581847739.938.152.391.9714021155
Philip RiversSD2008524216918405458453810.428.662.512.1713131138
Trent GreenKC200356120012038547344549.767.942.562.0314381137
Aaron RodgersGNB2010555204518775700476210.278.582.262.0512551136
Drew BreesNOR2008654267123986568536910.048.212.131.7213951125
Dan MarinoMIA199260226871429519244788.627.441.891.8711381123
Vinny TestaverdeNYJ1998464172615304662389710.058.402.842.4113201117
Cam NewtonCAR201564523701467638156489.898.761.361.738781115
Tom BradyNE2009599224421545999492210.028.222.171.8613001113
Donovan McNabbPHI2004531212017555410453310.198.542.472.0913111112
Nick FolesPHI2013387140914824406366511.399.473.242.8312561097
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2014649258023726748556210.408.571.971.6912781095
Troy AikmanDAL199546719871317458739299.828.412.432.3211361082
Chad PenningtonNYJ2002443163714834551381010.278.602.832.4312531077
Rich GannonRAI200059018661564536645849.097.771.901.8111211068
Peyton ManningIND200857723751627561648039.738.321.821.8310521059
Tony RomoDAL200756924921719549046319.658.142.011.8411411046
Mark BrunellJAX199751619111370473840539.187.852.162.0311151046
Tony RomoDAL2009599214323406022485210.058.102.211.7413231043
Drew BreesNOR201370225862576698656989.958.121.811.4812721039
David GarrardJAX200738215429673913343010.248.982.602.689931023
Drew BreesNOR201269729092268691957859.938.301.651.4611521017
Chad PenningtonMIA200851321071546511343409.978.462.061.9710551011
Brian GrieseDEN2000382154611423853328210.098.592.892.6311051006
Tom BradyNE200557722061904546245109.477.822.101.731213999
Brett FavreGNB199759623361531523344688.787.501.761.671048994
Troy AikmanDAL199345018791221421436049.368.012.372.201068992
Brett FavreGNB200455525351553534245669.638.231.901.781057990
Trent GreenKC200252718731817514442369.768.042.321.871221985
Elvis GrbacKC200060625251644540745858.927.571.731.611047974
Kurt WarnerRAM2000385184315864056326310.548.483.342.521286969
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT200958023761952563346579.718.031.871.671083969
Peyton ManningDEN2014619271120166232522410.078.441.641.561015963
Russell WilsonSEA2015614220618186191528210.088.601.561.57955963
Rich GannonRAI200269223282361640952299.267.561.821.391257960
Steve YoungSF199744114071622433835279.848.002.822.171242957
Matt RyanATL201266625512168659655129.908.281.631.441085956
Trent GreenKC200460126161975579448079.648.001.921.561154935
Steve BeuerleinCAR199964824711965565846768.737.221.701.441104934
Tony RomoDAL2014476203116745047421010.608.842.181.961035933
Jake PlummerDEN200550717981568478239989.437.892.071.801049913
Chris ChandlerATL199840818581296400333559.818.222.612.231064910
Troy AikmanDAL199253319791466461038778.657.271.911.701021907
Tom BradyNE200451523631329488642229.498.201.771.75910904
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2010437177114294472375810.238.602.222.07972903
Jay CutlerDEN200866526451881615852189.267.851.351.36898903
Peyton ManningIND201069826972003646054599.267.821.251.29870899
Mark BrunellJAX199668728851482559548548.147.071.121.30771894
Robert GriffinWAS201253216541546529945269.968.511.691.67897886
Doug FlutieBUF199841416141097391033629.448.122.242.13928881
Aaron RodgersGNB201264121602135632352569.868.201.591.361019870
Trent GreenKC200555822211793516242669.257.641.891.561053870
Michael VickATL200255418001136485342858.767.731.321.57729868
Vinny TestaverdeBAL199661723801797531744198.627.161.601.40985862
Michael VickPHI201049415611457479940719.718.241.711.71842844
Rich GannonRAI200163921351693539245468.447.111.391.31887837
Jeff HostetlerRAI19935122250992429638008.397.421.401.62717829
Steve YoungSF199640212761134370031339.207.792.182.03877816
Donovan McNabbPHI2006363125013973752305410.348.412.802.241017813
Drew BreesSD200445018001359439137129.768.252.041.81917812
Eli ManningNYG201163127582175611550289.697.971.531.28968810
Jeff GarciaSF200160218271711515643018.567.141.521.34912807
John ElwayDEN19984111875931373432699.097.951.881.96774806
Tony RomoDAL201156721682016560345959.888.101.721.42978805
Jim KellyBUF199251323221135423036638.257.141.511.57775804
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT200531014009853183269110.278.682.902.59900804
Matt RyanATL201160423921785573348419.498.011.331.33806803
Jake PlummerDEN20033421256926327528129.588.222.382.31815790
Steve McNairTEN200257821721215496043538.587.531.141.36657787
Tony RomoDAL200638118501053366331379.618.232.082.06792784
Brett FavreGNB199663221681731529344288.387.011.351.24855784
Daunte CulpepperMIN200355918521627490340908.777.321.581.40882784
Dan MarinoMIA199465526431810562947248.597.211.291.20844784
Bobby HebertNOR199246918231464412633948.807.242.061.67968781
Tom BradyNE201568023712399676555669.958.181.421.14967776
Carson PalmerCIN200656825031532504242768.887.531.341.35762770
Marc BulgerRAM200663923551946568647138.907.381.361.20871768
Rich GannonRAI199961019501890523442898.587.031.551.26947767
Steve McNairTEN199860219051323502743668.357.251.151.26691759
Peyton ManningIND200263925161684554146998.677.351.231.19784757
Trent GreenRAM20002841400663277424439.778.602.572.64731750
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20043541662959350930309.918.562.192.12776749
John ElwayDEN199654218851443458938688.477.141.451.37783743
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT200747819991155433237559.067.851.421.55679743
Mark BrunellJAX199951720051055425237258.227.201.201.43618739
Josh FreemanTB201056018161635521443979.317.851.301.32729738
Matthew StaffordDET201171626392399671155129.377.701.221.01871726
John ElwayDEN199363422741756527944018.336.941.341.14847722
Dan MarinoMIA199551520721596465338559.037.491.641.39847715
Brett FavreGNB200756020242131529942349.467.561.821.261019706
Troy AikmanDAL19983461424906323027779.348.032.132.03738704
John ElwayDEN199560522081762527143908.717.261.321.16800702
Derek AndersonCLE200755222951492492341778.927.571.281.27704700
Marc BulgerRAM200454024291535494541789.167.741.441.29776699
Matt HasselbeckSEA200358020371804502741258.677.111.471.20855695
Vinny TestaverdeCLE199542716921191389432999.127.721.731.63738695
Matt RyanATL200848320361404452438229.377.911.461.42704688
Andrew LuckIND201469324952266659054579.517.871.080.99750687
Steve YoungSF199552216031597466538678.947.411.551.31807684
Drew BreesNOR201470627332219665355449.427.851.000.97703684
Kordell StewartPIT199754818541166445538728.137.071.111.24607678
Kurt WarnerARI200862624102173582647409.317.571.401.08875678
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT201549424691469489341599.908.421.361.37674677
John ElwayDEN199758621641471482640918.246.981.211.15712675
Andy DaltonCIN2015452178314674593386010.168.541.621.49734674
Tom BradyNE201462421591950593949649.527.961.091.07680669
Brad JohnsonWAS199957422011804488039788.506.931.471.16846663
Jeff GarciaSF200260617711573518644008.567.261.111.09675661
Carson PalmerCIN200759724761655524344168.787.401.141.10680655
Matt SchaubHOU201061522342136573846709.337.591.321.06812653
Matt HasselbeckSEA200248117201355429536188.937.521.481.35714651
Philip RiversSD200651219531435452838118.847.441.311.27670650
Warren MoonHOO199238914201101336228128.647.231.911.66742644
Jake PlummerDEN200458123601729524543819.037.541.311.10760637
Dan MarinoMIA199758622211559482540468.236.901.211.08711630
Jim HarbaughIND199540214241151365430799.097.661.701.56683628
Neil O'DonnellPIT199545517401230401634018.837.471.441.38653627
Peyton ManningIND200161123361795506641698.296.821.241.02759622
Jake DelhommeCAR200844020191269410034669.327.881.411.39620610
Drew BreesNOR201566324642406648852859.797.971.250.92830610
Russell WilsonSEA201251018011317475740999.338.041.051.20537609
Matt RyanATL201062022881417536546578.657.510.640.98399606
Kordell StewartPIT200156718771232451238967.966.870.911.07515605
Michael VickPHI201151218591444474840269.277.861.121.18572604
Brett FavreGNB200157020541867484239098.496.861.451.05824600
Matt SchaubHOU2011314121412653328269610.608.582.441.90767597
Russell WilsonSEA201353018041553489041149.237.761.091.12576596
Aaron BrooksNOR200359420881458483741088.146.920.951.00564596
Philip RiversSD201162124642160582047409.377.631.210.95754589
Cam NewtonCAR201263620211848585649329.217.750.930.91594581
Joe MontanaKC19933351243901296725178.867.511.871.71625573
Jeff GeorgeMIN199937317881028324027268.697.311.661.53618572
Jim EverettNOR199561823421628515343398.347.020.950.92586572
Cam NewtonCAR201166820871964601550339.007.530.850.85566568
Matt RyanATL201468425382156635152739.297.710.860.83586565
Dan MarinoMIA199640215601235349528788.697.161.671.39672560
Aaron RodgersGNB200861323861652536345378.757.400.840.91514559
Tyrod TaylorBUF201550418981137467941119.288.160.731.10367555
Jeff GeorgeRAI199759623691548480040268.056.761.030.93615553
Mark BrunellJAX19984311629972362131358.407.271.201.28516553
Matt HasselbeckSEA200761722091757531744398.627.190.970.89601552
Gus FrerotteWAS199652019911462427435438.226.811.201.05623546
Kirk CousinsWAS201558522581908562346699.617.981.070.93625542
Aaron RodgersGNB2013331121313233394273310.258.262.111.62700536
Damon HuardKC20062661045833258921739.738.172.201.99585530
Eli ManningNYG200954822361785490240108.957.321.100.96603525
Jeff GarciaTB200736612321208343328299.387.731.741.43636523
Russell WilsonSEA201459315151960558446049.427.760.990.88586522
Jameis WinstonTB201560325281514552647699.167.910.610.85367514
Colin KaepernickSF201353617991398476540668.897.590.750.95402509
Chris ChandlerATL199742416081084352029788.307.021.281.20543507
Jim EverettNOR199457621231732483839728.406.901.090.88630507
Troy AikmanDAL199440516061070347629418.587.261.281.25517505
Kyle OrtonDEN201054820771576486740798.887.440.870.91478499
Jeff GeorgeATL199562721262017532743198.506.891.110.79693496
Steve McNairTEN199941911081071344229078.216.941.191.16497487
Drew BledsoeNE199758021611545463838668.006.660.980.84566485
Jay CutlerDEN200752518831614459537888.757.221.110.92582481
Drew BreesNOR200768023112112581847628.567.000.910.70621478
Jim EverettRAM199253320021321410734477.716.470.970.89518477
Phil SimmsNYG199346517601278381431758.206.831.211.02563477
Brett FavreGNB199465519061976540244148.256.740.940.72617474
Jake PlummerARI200158921381515464538887.896.600.840.80493469
Craig EricksonTB199444718571062368731568.257.060.941.04421467
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT201156921991878520942709.157.501.000.82568467
Brett FavreGNB199862923111901518342338.246.731.040.74652464
Jake DelhommeCAR200458525771309488242288.357.230.630.78366459
Kurt WarnerARI200953921031650471038858.747.210.890.85482458
Drew BreesSD200554020281548451737438.366.931.000.85541457
Doug FlutieBUF199959219081263450438737.616.540.580.77343454
Donovan McNabbPHI20024481324965369732158.257.180.811.01362451
Chad PenningtonNYJ200441315061167369431118.947.531.221.09506450
Matt CasselKC201049615161600448736879.057.431.040.90514447
Jeff GarciaSF200346114991205377531738.196.881.000.97459447
Drew BledsoeNE199667723011785523743457.746.420.710.65483442
Donovan McNabbPHI200862321111805538744858.657.200.740.71459442
Jon KitnaCIN200357521641427455338407.926.680.730.76417440
Marc BulgerRAM20053211495802278723868.687.431.321.35423432
Eli ManningNYG201256624871461503043008.897.600.610.76347427
Mark BrunellJAX200061423581282472540847.706.650.500.69307425
Brad JohnsonMIN199751317501286405834157.916.660.890.83456425
Boomer EsiasonNYJ199353616261795443235358.276.591.280.79685424
Warren MoonSEA199757521131565455537737.926.560.900.73518422
Jeff GarciaSF199943513891155350829318.066.741.040.96451419
Drew BledsoeNE199854523791254430436777.906.750.690.76378412
Warren MoonMIN199567724081820544845388.056.700.660.61445411
Eli ManningNYG201463023662044576847469.167.530.730.65459409
Tony RomoDAL201357919881840516742478.927.340.780.70454404
Steve McNairBAL200650017221328415334898.316.980.770.80385402
Kerry CollinsNYG200260722861787503941468.306.830.860.66520401
Steve McNairTEN200551416621499427535268.326.860.950.77490397
Matt HasselbeckSEA200451820051377441837308.537.200.810.76419392
Joe FlaccoBAL201460021701816543045229.057.540.620.65373392
Michael VickATL20065521571903424837977.706.880.160.7088389
Matt SchaubHOU200842115731470385531209.167.411.250.92525388
Donovan McNabbPHI200950118061747444735748.887.131.030.77517388
Ryan FitzpatrickHOU201437213551128350729439.437.911.001.03372382
Eli ManningNYG200851220181220431437048.437.230.520.75264382
Jay FiedlerMIA200155018331457429435667.816.480.760.68417373
Troy AikmanDAL199651819021224396833567.666.480.640.71331370
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT201249117021563451037299.197.590.910.75447369
Kurt WarnerARI200748121071310405133968.427.060.780.76375366
Tony RomoDAL201269728702033614951338.827.360.550.52382364
Jeff BlakeCIN199666519481676502541877.566.300.530.53356354
Jim KellyBUF199353120381344410134297.726.460.730.65389348
Jim HarbaughCHI19924361495991327027757.506.360.770.79334345
Steve BeuerleinPHO199346920681096361330657.706.540.710.73334343
Matt SchaubHOU201257621301878522242839.077.440.790.59456342
Marc BulgerRAM200358623751470454138067.756.490.560.58326341
Jay FiedlerMIA20023301125899282423758.567.201.111.03367339
Byron LeftwichJAX20053441339784282424328.217.070.850.98291339
Vince YoungTEN20093141047832274823328.757.430.911.07285335
Stan HumphriesSD199553421401241420935897.886.720.490.62263333
Jeff GarciaTB200842514641248371430908.747.270.830.78352332
Brad JohnsonTB200248415981451404333188.356.850.910.69440332
Brad JohnsonMIN199636011411117295924018.226.671.200.90431325
Joe MontanaKC199453016351648433035068.176.620.860.60458318
Steve McNairTEN199754715471118406235037.436.400.400.58221315
Stan HumphriesSD199251018901466388731547.626.180.890.61453312
Stan HumphriesSD199449719101299395133027.956.640.640.63320312
Mark BrunellJAX200156922051104416536137.326.350.270.55154311
Chris ChandlerATL19993551545794275423577.766.640.730.86259307
Mark RypienWAS199253819531329396833047.386.140.640.57345306
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David KlinglerCIN19934249261009240118975.664.47-1.33-1.33-563-564
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Charlie BatchDET200049713361153294723715.934.77-1.27-1.19-629-591
Christian PonderMIN201256012221713409332377.315.78-0.97-1.06-541-595
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Browning NagleNYJ19924381669611214218374.894.19-1.84-1.38-808-604
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Josh FreemanTB20093341143712186815125.594.53-2.25-1.83-752-612
Josh FreemanTB201161918061786441735247.145.69-1.02-0.99-632-613
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Tarvaris JacksonSEA201152316731418357328646.835.48-1.33-1.21-693-632
Brandon WeedenCLE201256515141871416532307.375.72-0.90-1.13-510-636
Tony BanksRAM199848914091126285422915.844.69-1.37-1.31-668-639
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Donald HollasRAI19983251057697161012624.953.88-2.25-2.11-731-686
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Tony BanksRAM19964771597947253120585.314.31-1.72-1.45-818-692
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David CarrHOU200257714751117259320354.493.53-2.95-2.64-1702-1525

peyton manningManning’s 2004 MVP performance takes the top spot whether you rank by rate or by total value. It rates as the best season by TAY/P and New TAY/P, and his marginal value by both measures also ranks first, despite his relatively low volume of plays that season. His performance compared to the rest of the league was by far the best of any other quarterback on the list. Remarkably, he also holds the second place spot with his wildly underrated 2006 season.

Many consider Manning’s record-shattering 2013 bout the finest quarterback season in history. However, these metrics don’t even view it as the top season of the last decade or from Manning. By regular TAY/P, it rates third since 1992. When we account for the fact that he was heavily reliant on his receivers to pick up yards after the catch, it drops to sixth. If we compare the numbers to the rest of the league, he rates ninth and tenth, respectively. His high volume and efficiency puts him in third in marginal value based on TAY, but his low air yardage drops him to fourth when based on New TAY. These rankings are still good, but they aren’t as historically awesome as big media insists.

tom bradyYou can’t talk great quarterback seasons without mentioning Tom Brady‘s incredible 2007 spectacle. The season ranks fourth in both rate stats, as well as in both marginal rate stats. It ranks second in marginal value based on TAY and third in value based on New TAY. Throw in an undefeated regular season, and it’s fair to say an upset loss in the Super Bowl is the only thing keeping most fans (and analysts) from considering this the greatest season ever by a quarterback. Heck, even with the loss, many still call this the top season.7

When you sort by TAY/P, Aaron Rodger’s record-breaking 2011 season comes in second. He may have broken the passer rating record, but he took too many sacks to rate above Manning in this area. His season also loses a but of luster when you account for air yards; he drops to third when ranked by New TAY/P. He drops even further when you compare him with the rest of the league. Because the passing environment was so friendly to quarterbacks in 2011, Rodgers’s numbers don’t look as impressive. His 3.59 marginal TAY/P and 3.21 marginal New TAY/P are both incredible (sixth and seventh, respectively), but they fall behind a few seasons from the nineties when relative performance is taken into consideration.

steve youngWhen we look at performance relative to that of peers, the top passer of the nineties, Steve Young, really stands out. He posted a higher rating and won a Super Bowl in 1994, but his first MVP season was arguably the superior one. In 1992, Young was efficient as a passer, but he also picked up an impressive 537 rushing yards. It was the beginning of a three year stretch in which he had a marginal TAY/P over three8 Many analysts consider Joe Montana the greatest quarterback in history. The fact that the San Francisco passing attack actually got better when Young took over is a testament to his unheralded greatness.9

Randall Cunningham made a name for himself as The Ultimate Weapon, a versatile player who could throw the ball a mile or scramble to move the chains when needed (he could even punt in a pinch). Of course, early in his career he played for some terrible offenses and set records for taking so many sacks. By 1998, Cunningham was 35, and his Ultimate Weapon days were behind him. He learned to be an effective pocket passer (having rookie phenom Randy Moss didn’t hurt) and posted the best season of his career.

Drew BreesDrew Brees may be the greatest quarterback in history never thought of as the best in the league. Putting up huge volume numbers and impressive accuracy numbers, he has led some talent-scarce teams to the postseason. In 2009 and 2011, he gave us some of the best seasons of recent vintage, despite being overlooked for the MVP award both seasons. His latter season ranks fifth by both measures of marginal value, and his championship year also ranks in the top twenty.

I could go on, pointing out things like Steve McNair’s MVP award being about more than just toughness, or the increasing absurdity of Nick Foles‘s 2013 campaign, but I’d rather leave further observation to you.

 

  1. See the links in the glossary for the research.
  2. Since 2002, TAY/P has a correlation of .95 with DVOA (.90 r2).
  3. It also has a .93 correlation with ESPN’s Total QBR (.87 r2).
  4. Note that I only have full spike and kneel data back to 2002. I am working on finding more robust data prior to that, but it’s a time-consuming and tedious task.
  5. I will produce a list with less advanced versions of TAY/P at a later time. Almost all the data I need is available back to the 1940s. The AAFC didn’t provide fumble data for the NFL record books, and the NFL only officially has sacks back to 1963, but we can work with that.
  6. Although all quarterbacks were included in the calculations to find league average stats.
  7. If we account for strength of opponent and weather conditions, it just might be the best ever. You’ll get no argument from me if you think it is.
  8. Peyton Manning 2004-2006 is the only other such stretch.
  9. Also impressive is that Young doesn’t have a single season with negative value in his seven years on the list. The only other players who can match that are Mark Brunell (10), Steve McNair (9), Tony Romo (8), and Dan Marino (7).