2015 Week 1 Quarterbacks

Week one of the 2015 NFL season is in the books. Let’s look at some quarterback stats.

Raw Stats

The first table contains simple, raw stats for QBs. Read it thus: Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 189 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interception. He took 0 sacks, so he didn’t lose any yards on sacks. He picked up 10 passing first downs, and he didn’t spike the ball to kill the clock. He had 8 official carries for 35 official yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, and 3 first downs. Of his official carries, 2 were kneels, which totaled -1 yards.

PlayerTmCmpAttYdsTDIntSkSky1dSpkRshYdsTDsFmb1dKnlsYds
Aaron RodgersGNB182318930001008350032-1
Alex SmithKC2233243302101209150023-3
Andrew LuckIND264924322231604200031-1
Andy DaltonCIN25342692000130410002-2
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2638351112131500000000
Blake BortlesJAX22401831251412142600300
Brian HoyerHOU1834236114291200001000
Cam NewtonCAR18311751121710014350032-2
Carson PalmerARI193230730001303140011-1
Colin KaepernickSF17261650010807410032-2
Derek CarrOAK712610000301801000
Drew BreesNOR304835511211201300000
Eli ManningNYG203619300131001800100
Jameis WinstonTB16332102242911061802100
Jay CutlerCHI18362251121212143100200
Joe FlaccoBAL183211702217400000000
Johnny ManzielCLE1324182113148033502100
Josh McCownCLE584900002032301200
Kirk CousinsWAS213119612181202-10101-1
Marcus MariotaTEN1316209402241102600000
Matt McGloinOAK2331142212201000001000
Matt RyanATL23342982218160570003-3
Matthew StaffordDET1930246221131201-10001-1
Nick FolesSTL18272971022113041112100
Peyton ManningDEN2440175014251101-10001-1
Philip RiversSD3542404222162002-20002-2
Russell WilsonSEA3241251116321008310021-1
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ15241792100902-10101-1
Ryan MallettHOU813981017501600100
Ryan TannehillMIA223422610344120370101-1
Sam BradfordPHI365233612001700000000
Teddy BridgewaterMIN23322310155411031600200
Tom BradyNE25322884027190310021-2
Tony RomoDAL364535632002101-10001-1
Tyrod TaylorBUF14191951000709410113-4
Zach MettenbergerTEN0000000003-50003-5

Rate Stats

This table presents quarterback rates stats, but some numbers will look different from the official statistics. That is because I remove spikes and kneels/yards before calculating the final stats. Read it thus: Aaron Rodgers completed 78.26% of his passes at 8.22 yards per attempt. He had a 13.04% touchdown rate and a 0.00% interception rate and sack rate. He gained 10.5 yards per completed pass, and he completed passes on 78.26% of his dropbacks. He had 189 net yards (pass yards – sack yards) at 8.22 per dropback. His NFL passer rating was 140.49, and his Passing Equivalency Rating was 128.09. He picked up 249 adjusted passing yards at 10.83 per attempt, and his adjusted net yards were the same because he didn’t take any sacks.

PlayerTmReal C%Real Y/AReal TD%Real Int%Real Sk%Y/CC/DNet YdsNY/ANFL RatPERAYAY/AANYANY/A
Aaron RodgersGNB78.26%8.2213.04%0.00%0.00%10.578.26%1898.22140.49127.9524910.8324910.83
Alex SmithKC66.67%7.369.09%0.00%5.71%11.062.86%2336.66118.62108.783039.182938.37
Andrew LuckIND53.06%4.964.08%4.08%3.92%9.350.98%2404.7163.5635.401933.941903.73
Andy DaltonCIN73.53%7.915.88%0.00%0.00%10.873.53%2697.91115.93104.913099.093099.09
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT68.42%9.242.63%2.63%5.00%13.565.00%3388.4595.3972.563268.583137.83
Blake BortlesJAX56.41%4.692.56%5.13%11.36%8.350.00%1693.8455.8225.371132.90992.25
Brian HoyerHOU52.94%6.942.94%2.94%10.53%13.147.37%2075.4572.6748.692116.211824.79
Cam NewtonCAR58.06%5.653.23%3.23%6.06%9.754.55%1584.7971.3046.281504.841334.03
Carson PalmerARI59.38%9.599.38%0.00%0.00%16.259.38%3079.59122.79113.0536711.4736711.47
Colin KaepernickSF65.38%6.350.00%0.00%3.70%9.762.96%1656.1183.0169.841656.351656.11
Derek CarrOAK58.33%5.080.00%0.00%0.00%8.758.33%615.0871.8858.70615.08615.08
Drew BreesNOR62.50%7.402.08%2.08%4.00%11.860.00%3547.0883.2562.423306.883296.58
Eli ManningNYG55.56%5.360.00%0.00%2.70%9.754.05%1905.1470.7257.541935.361905.14
Jameis WinstonTB48.48%6.366.06%6.06%10.81%13.143.24%1814.8963.9538.671604.851313.54
Jay CutlerCHI51.43%6.432.86%2.86%5.41%12.548.65%2135.7669.3545.682005.711885.08
Joe FlaccoBAL56.25%3.660.00%6.25%5.88%6.552.94%1002.9438.1511.43270.84100.29
Johnny ManzielCLE54.17%7.584.17%4.17%11.11%14.048.15%1686.2275.3546.871576.541435.30
Josh McCownCLE62.50%6.130.00%0.00%0.00%9.862.50%496.1379.6966.51496.13496.13
Kirk CousinsWAS67.74%6.323.23%6.45%3.13%9.365.63%1885.8868.7544.061264.061183.69
Marcus MariotaTEN81.25%13.0625.00%0.00%11.11%16.172.22%18510.28158.33148.7028918.0626514.72
Matt McGloinOAK74.19%4.586.45%3.23%6.06%6.269.70%1223.7091.0667.221374.421173.55
Matt RyanATL67.65%8.765.88%5.88%2.86%13.065.71%2908.2990.0763.982487.292406.86
Matthew StaffordDET63.33%8.206.67%6.67%3.23%12.961.29%2337.5283.4760.941966.531835.90
Nick FolesSTL66.67%11.003.70%0.00%6.90%16.562.07%2769.52115.82104.0031711.7429610.21
Peyton ManningDEN60.00%4.380.00%2.50%9.09%7.354.55%1503.4159.9036.621303.251052.39
Philip RiversSD83.33%9.624.76%4.76%4.55%11.579.55%3888.82102.7876.983548.433387.68
Russell WilsonSEA78.05%6.122.44%2.44%12.77%7.868.09%2194.6690.1468.472265.511944.13
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ62.50%7.468.33%4.17%0.00%11.962.50%1797.4695.6668.711747.251747.25
Ryan MallettHOU61.54%7.547.69%0.00%7.14%12.357.14%916.50110.42100.061189.081117.93
Ryan TannehillMIA64.71%6.652.94%0.00%8.11%10.359.46%1824.9293.5081.412467.242025.46
Sam BradfordPHI69.23%6.461.92%3.85%0.00%9.369.23%3366.4677.0849.082665.122665.12
Teddy BridgewaterMIN71.88%7.220.00%3.13%13.51%10.062.16%1774.7879.0453.241865.811323.57
Tom BradyNE78.13%9.0012.50%0.00%5.88%11.573.53%2818.26143.75131.1036811.5036110.62
Tony RomoDAL80.00%7.916.67%4.44%0.00%9.980.00%3567.91103.3376.733267.243267.24
Tyrod TaylorBUF73.68%10.265.26%0.00%0.00%13.973.68%19510.26123.79112.5521511.3221511.32

Note in the table above that only Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler spiked the ball this week, so they are the only quarterbacks whose passing numbers will look different from what you’d find on Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, ESPN, or whatever other stats site you prefer.

Advanced Stats

This table shows the total contributions from quarterbacks, both passing and rushing. Read it thus: Tom Brady was involved in 36 action plays (passes, sacks, and rushes, with spikes and kneels removed) and gained 517 total adjusted yards, or 14.36 per play. This was 5.96 TAY/P better than average, giving him 215 marginal adjusted yards on the day. His Winnersauce rating1 was 157.2.

PlayerTmPlyTAYTAY/PMAY/PMAYSauce
Tom BradyNE3651714.365.96215157.2
Carson PalmerARI3448114.155.75195155.6
Marcus MariotaTEN2033416.708.30166174.8
Aaron RodgersGNB2937512.934.53131146.5
Philip RiversSD4450011.362.97131134.7
Tony RomoDAL4548810.842.45110130.9
Andy DaltonCIN3641111.423.02109135.1
Nick FolesSTL3338511.673.27108137.0
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT4043910.982.58103106.8
Tyrod TaylorBUF2529811.923.5288138.9
Alex SmithKC4141010.001.6066124.5
Matt RyanATL3737610.161.7765125.7
Colin KaepernickSF323079.591.2038121.5
Ryan MallettHOU1516210.802.4036105.5
Matthew StaffordDET312738.810.411390.6
Drew BreesNOR514318.450.05387.9
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ252128.480.082113.1
Jay CutlerCHI413368.20-0.20-886.0
Josh McCownCLE11837.55-0.85-981.1
Eli ManningNYG382977.82-0.58-2283.1
Sam BradfordPHI524107.88-0.51-2783.7
Derek CarrOAK13715.46-2.94-3865.5
Ryan TannehillMIA392847.28-1.12-43104.1
Johnny ManzielCLE302006.67-1.73-5274.5
Brian HoyerHOU382566.74-1.66-6375.0
Teddy BridgewaterMIN402656.63-1.77-7174.2
Kirk CousinsWAS331925.82-2.58-8568.2
Andrew LuckIND543646.74-1.66-8975.1
Cam NewtonCAR452786.18-2.22-10095.9
Matt McGloinOAK331644.97-3.43-11361.8
Russell WilsonSEA543256.02-2.38-12869.7
Blake BortlesJAX482515.23-3.17-15263.7
Peyton ManningDEN442044.64-3.76-16584.3
Jameis WinstonTB431894.40-4.00-17257.5
Joe FlaccoBAL34461.35-7.04-24034.7

Whether you believe Brady played lights-out football or the Pittsburgh defense played lights-off-upstairs  football, there’s no denying the outcome: another in a long line of Brady-Belichick victories.

Carson Palmer is back, which is a great thing for the Cardinals. Palmer is 17-6 under head coach Bruce Arians, including eight straight wins. If he can stay healthy and maintain his career renaissance, Arizona could take the NFC West crown from Seattle.

Marcus Mariota had one of the greatest statistical performances of any rookie QB in history. In 16 pass attempts, he picked up 11 first downs (68.8%). For reference, elite champion quarterback Joe Flacco gained first downs on just 22.2% of his completions. Mariota’s low volume is the only thing keeping him from ranking higher.

Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers are really good. Enough said.

Andy Dalton played well, thus continuing his magical spell over the Bengals, wherein he plays poorly enough to keep them from a title but well enough to keep them from exploring other options.

It’s only a matter of time before Drew Brees‘s arm falls off. Since coming to New Orleans in 2006, he has thrown 806 more passes than the next closest quarterback (Eli Manning).

Watching Peyton Manning running bootlegs was unsettling and painful. I’ll let Frank Herbert write the rest of the analysis:

Here lies a toppled god.
His fall was not a small one.
We did but build his pedestal,
A narrow and a tall one.

  1. Based on a regression of all boxscore stats since 1960 to determine which stats correlate most strong to winning. Don’t take it too seriously; it’s just a for-fun metric with a goofy name.