2017 WEEK 14 PICKS, RANKINGS

Another mediocre week, 8 correct picks against the spread. I should be doing better at this point in the season, because – theoretically – I now have enough data to accurately gauge team strengths. While my picks haven’t taken a nose dive, I’m certainly struggling. No sense going back and complaining about lost games, but I do have one gripe: I did pretty well with my Super Hot Picks, getting 2 out of 3 correct, but I could have (and should have) gone 3-0 if…

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2017 WEEK 13 PICKS

What a bummer. I went from having 10 correct picks last week to 6 this week; and my Thanksgiving and Super Hot picks were both 1-2. Some quick comments: 1. The rash of QB changes going on in the league right now is really throwing me and The Machine. Not only am I having a heck of a time keeping track of it all, but I don’t yet have a way of estimating the difference, in points, between one QB and another. The difference between…

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2017 WEEK 12 PICKS

After four weeks of mediocrity, I finally had a good week: 10 correct picks and I hit 2 of my 3 Super Hot Sizzling Picks. What does this mean moving forward? Nothing really. I could have easily lost a few games, most notably, the Browns/Jaguars game. I took Jacksonville, favored by 7.5, and it didn’t look good towards the end – the Browns had the ball with 1:24 left, down by 6 on their own 20. What should have happened is maybe a stalled drive…

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2017 WEEK 11 PICKS, RANKINGS

Boy, was I feeling great on Sunday before the afternoon slate of games. I caught the back-door cover on the Thursday night Seattle/Arizona game (SEA -6.5), and then won 5 out of the 8 morning games. Sitting at 6-3, I was thinking, “All I’ve got to do is win two games, and I’ll be above 0.500”. But it was not to be: I picked up the Carolina/Miami game, but lost the other four, leaving me at an even 7-7. No time to recap this week,…

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2017 WEEK 10 PICKS, WEEK 9 RECAP

Well, it’s official: I’m in a slump. I was cruising along pretty well for the first 6 weeks, going 54-37 (59%), but since then my record is 18-22 (45%). Now, this isn’t horrible, and I don’t yet think it’s time to start panicking and tweaking The Machine. But it is worrisome that The Machine isn’t getting better as the season goes on, which, obviously, it should be. In any event, this isn’t a good look – after all, I’m writing a weekly post in which…

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2017 Week 9 Picks, Week 8 Recap and Rankings

Not a bad week, but not great either. I said last week that I’d be happy to just break even in Week 9 (which doesn’t make sense as there were 13 games, but anyway); as it is, I went 7-6, which is fine. I was concerned about taking so many favorites this weekend (9), especially when some of the spreads were pretty big – 6 were over a touchdown, 3 were over 9 points. Interestingly, 6 of my 7 correct picks were the favorites; my…

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2017 Week 8 NFL Picks, Week 7 Recap

Author’s note: Being that this is my first post as a writer for The GridFe, I’d like to take a moment to thank Bryan and the guys for having me aboard. I’ve been a fan of this site since its inception (I believe in 2015) because the writing that Bryan, Adam and more recently Ben, put forth is top notch: honest, insightful, fair and always interesting. I suspect that my contributions will be on the “lighter” side, but will be fun and interesting nonetheless. So,…

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Greatest QB of All Time: 10,000 Careers

Imagine if every QB throughout history could play his career out 10,000 times. Each signal caller would be subjected to the full spectrum of circumstances, ranging from the good fortune of being drafted onto a ready-made dynasty, to the rotten luck of being stuck with a talent starved, mismanaged franchise. In some careers he would manage to play 15+ years without a significant injury, in others he’d spend half of his days on IR or watch his career end suddenly with one unlucky hit. The…

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Towards a better understanding of pressure rates and offensive line play

This all got started by an interesting comment by skepticismissurvival on the NFL subreddit, who made an observation that, like most good observations, seems obvious in hindsight: the pressure rate allowed by an offensive line is not a great measure of pass protection because it depends in part on how long their QB holds the ball. There is wide variation in release time, which varied from Alex Smith at 2.38 seconds to Tyrod Taylor at 3.12 seconds in 2016. We should not expect the Chiefs and…

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Is there a relationship between passing volume and efficiency?

Arguing on the internet A common argument on the internet (e.g. Twitter, where I spent too much time) is that the efficiency of players like Prescott and Wilson in their rookie seasons (and subsequent seasons, for Wilson) was not impressive because they were not asked to throw the ball as much. Once they are asked to throw more often, the argument goes, we can expect their efficiency to fall off. Here is one of many, many examples: This stat is misleading. Seahawks were ranked 32nd,…

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