2019 Predictions

Uncategorized August 17, 2019 Adam Steele Leave a comment

Adam’s picks, made by pulling opinions out of his rear end: NFC West Rams (11-5): Last year’s losses to the Bears and Patriots appeared to expose Sean McVay and Jared Goff, although I’m pretty confident McVay will add new wrinkles to his offense that will keep defenses guessing. I don’t believe in Goff, but there’s enough pieces around him to maintain a high powered offense. In 2018 the Rams defense severely underachieved relative to their talent, so I really have no idea what to expect from…

Mount Rushmore of Cornerbacks by Raiderjoe

GOAT, Guest Posts August 2, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

Cornerback is a difficult position to analyze because these players are not often on the television screen during the action. If you cannot always see them, can you properly analyze their performance? Were they in man or zone coverage? Did they have safety help? Were they a liability against the run or did that even really matter? Then there is the problem of darn near perfect coverage and still allowing a reception. Regarding the difficulties of the position, Willie Brown said, “The cornerback has to…

Mount Rushmore of Centers by Raiderjoe

GOAT, Guest Posts July 30, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

The 2019 campaign will be the 100th season of the National Football League. To help celebrate this occasion the Mount Rushmores of each position will be revealed. There will be no Mount Rushmore of gunners or H-backs or slot cornerbacks. The main positions will suffice. The heads of four U.S. Presidents were sculpted in granite on the side of a mountain in South Dakota. George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln are the four. They represent the birth, growth, development, and preservation of…

Counterpoint: All-Time 53-Man Roster

Guest Posts, History, Random June 28, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

This article is from a writer and historian whose work and opinion I respect quite a lot, Brad Oremland. Brad recently took a hiatus from writing about football (you can read more about it in his most recent column in his archives at Sports Central), but he was gracious enough to bring this great piece of work to me as a challenge to a fun post I made five years ago. The following words are Brad’s, and I hope you enjoy them as much as…

The Surprising Utility of QB Touchdown Stats

Offense, Quarterbacks May 25, 2019 Adam Steele 1 Comment

In the analytics community, using touchdowns to measure player performance is generally looked down upon; touchdowns are great for fantasy football but don’t matter in real football. I agree with this line of thinking for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. But I think touchdowns can be a very useful took for evaluating quarterbacks if done in the right context. I’ll start by saying that using touchdowns to measure single game performance is a terrible idea. If QB A tosses three goal line TD…

History of the Career Receiving Touchdowns Record

History, Receiving May 17, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

I’ve written several histories of NFL career records, but the history of the career receiving touchdowns record is the most fascinating to me. Twelve men held the receptions title, and eleven held the receiving yards record. Seven different players held the record for rushing yards and for rushing touchdowns. Eleven quarterbacks held the passing yardage crown, while ten captured the touchdown title. This record is different. Thanks, primarily, to Don Hutson and Jerry Rice, only four players have held the record for receiving touchdowns since…

Seasonal Prediction Review

Guest Posts March 14, 2019 Guest Author 1 Comment

Today’s post is from friend of the site Topher Doll, a fastidious recordkeeper who has spent the past few years tracking the success of myriad predictions and metrics used to measure team strength. Enjoy. Each year we are bombarded with predictions on how the season will shape up. From models built by people far smarter to me to predictions based on the feelings of a writer or researcher. Individually these are fun to read while agreeing or disagreeing with each team. They are wonderful conversation…

2018 GridFe Awards

Awards February 11, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

With the full 2018 season in the rear view, it’s time to hand out some awards. As always, I include postseason performance when deciding on awards, but my rule is this: the postseason can only help.1 In general, I lean toward players who played the entire season. However, I will make exceptions for those who missed a few games but either produced at such a high level that I had to include them or played as many snaps as those who played in all sixteen…

Bryan’s 2018 All Pro Team

Awards February 7, 2019 Bryan Frye Leave a comment

I am not the sole proprietor of The GridFe, so I don’t want to call this the GridFe All Pro Team. The players and coaches I have selected are my own choices, and they are often at odds with the picks of my fellow contributors. This is my all pro team. There are many like it, but this one is mine. I base my selections on traditional and advanced stats, film study, and my own futile attempts at properly applying context to each player’s season.…

2018 SRS Ratings Through Week 9

Team Strength, Uncategorized November 8, 2018 Thomas McDermott Leave a comment

Below are the SRS ratings through Week 9; as noted last week, the offense and defense ratings do not include “non-offense” scores. This ranking is telling us that on a neutral field, the spread for a Chiefs/Bills matchup would be Chiefs -26. That’s an insane spread, but pretty reasonable considering what our eyeballs tell us about these two teams. Is Chicago really a better team (albeit only slightly) than New England? Probably not. This rating (and PFR’s) includes all games and gives all games equal…