New TAYP Quick Update

If you’re familiar with my work, you know I created the metric New TAY/P to measure quarterback play, using only inputs widely available on sites like Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, ESPN, Sporting Charts, etc.1 I wouldn’t put it on par with other advanced stats, such as Total QBR, DVOA, or EPA/P, which are the cream of the quarterback efficiency stat crop. However, it does have the advantage of being completely transparent and easy to calculate on a napkin, in case you’re the sort who likes…

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Positive Yards Per Attempt: Update

If I could only share one thing from my time doing football analytics, it would be the following principle: Positive plays carry more weight than negative plays in determining the winner of a football game. I’ve already written a couple of articles on this subject and hope to further the cause with this update. Overview For those of you who don’t feel like reading the previous two posts, I’ll give you the basic gist. Since passing has a far greater impact on winning than running, I’ve…

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Your favorite team had a great draft

I. Ben’s 2017 Draft Grades Team A I loved team A’s draft. Despite trading back into the second round, with their first pick they were able to draft the #8 overall player per Josh Norris. Back in May 2016, PFF ranked this player #7 overall in their early mock draft. In my mind, there’s no doubt team A got a steal and a top 10 overall player with the #35 pick in the draft. With their next pick, at #58, they took the #49 overall…

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Passing First Downs: Career Rankings

Yesterday I detailed the best and worst QB seasons as measured by first down percentage. Today’s post will reveal how these signal callers stack up over the course of their careers. I chose to exclude any QB who totaled at least 100 dropbacks in any season prior to 1991, because incomplete data can often be worse than no data at all. From there, I’m including QB’s who took a significant numbers of snaps in at least two seasons (a  judgment call). This gives us a…

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Passing First Downs: Best and Worst Seasons

I’m a huge fan of using first downs to measure quarterback performance. Despite ignoring yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, the simple operation of dividing passing 1D by dropbacks does a terrific job of telling us how well a QB has played. Like all statistics, passing 1D% has its flaws, but in my opinion it harbors less distortion than any other simple input passing stat. I place 1D% slightly ahead of NY/A in terms of relevance for making solid evaluations, and miles ahead of everything else. Setting…

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A Brief Essay on the Legendary Marcus Allen

Born March 26, 1960 in San Diego, California, Marcus Allen knew from a young age he was a special talent. During neighborhood football games, he was always several steps ahead of everyone else. He preferred playing defensive back and aspired to be like his hero Lem Barney, but he also spent time in his backyard trying to emulate the running style of Browns legend Leroy Kelly. That time paid dividends when Abraham Lincoln High School coaches Vic Player and Roy Reed decided to make Allen…

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Adjusted Points Per Drive 2016

Last year, I created a metric for measuring offensive efficiency called Adjusted Points Per Drive (AdjPPD). Today I’ll be updating the numbers for 2016. If you aren’t familiar with AdjPPD, I strongly encourage you to read the full explanation here. Overview When measured on a per-drive basis, 2016 was the highest scoring season in the last twenty years, and probably in the history of the NFL (drive stats only go back to 1997, so we can’t be absolutely certain). After adjusting for field position, the average…

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2016 Defense Adjusted Quarterback Stats

With the 2016 regular season in the books, I thought it might be interesting to look at some of our homegrown quarterback stats. Normally, I would present Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P) and New Total Adjusted Yards per Play (NTAY/P)1 and leave it at that. However, we have made those stats available all year and wouldn’t be giving you anything new by going the traditional route. Instead, I’d like to present those metrics with adjustments to account for the defenses quarterbacks have faced. This way, we…

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Greatest QB of All-Time: Conventional Wisdom

There are countless iterations of the quarterback GOAT ranking scattered all over the internet. As far as I’m aware, every one of these lists has been compiled from the perspective of the person creating it; in other words, it’s just their opinion. In today’s post, I’m going to tackle this from a different angle. Instead of telling you who I believe the greatest quarterbacks of all-time are, I wanted to find a consensus on the beliefs of the entirety of football fandom. Of course this…

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Realigning the NFL

I’ll begin my tenure at GridFe with a relatively light-hearted topic, but it’s a topic that I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time thinking about: NFL division alignments and schedules. I am not a fan of the current setup consisting of eight divisions of four teams each. With so few teams in each division, it drastically increases the likelihood of imbalance, and as we’ve witnessed a few times, that imbalance can be extreme. I’m appalled at the yearly occurrence of a mediocre team receiving a…

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